Normal to above normal streamflows are forecast for the month of April.
Hydrologic Flood and Drought Potential
Flood potential is forecast to be slightly above normal for the month of April. Widespread minor to moderate flooding is expected. The greatest flood risk is in Kentucky, southeast Illinois and southern Indiana. Drought is forecast to diminish or end in parts of Illinois and Indiana and parts of northern West Virginia.
Past 30 Day Hydrological and Meteorological Review
Rainfall Departures
Over the last 30 days, 2.50-7.00 inches of precipitation fell across portions of the western basin. These amounts are 100-200 percent of normal. The heaviest amounts fell across middle Tennessee, southwest Ohio and southern Indiana. 1.50-3.00 inches fell across most of the eastern half of the basin. These amounts are 50-75 percent of normal.
30 day observed precipitation for the OHRFC basin.
Soil moisture near the end of March was generally above normal south of the Ohio River and below normal north of the Ohio River. The driest soils can be found across northern Indiana. The wettest soils are present across most of Kentucky into southern West Virginia.
At the end of March, streamflows are below normal to much below normal across the northern half of Indiana, most of Ohio, western Pennsylvania and West Virginia. Normal streamflows can be found across southwest Ohio, Kentucky, middle Tennessee, southeast Illinois and southern Indiana.
Atmospheric Teleconnection and Oscillation Forecasts
Compared to February, the month of March was relatively quiet despite some periods of heavy rain. Teleconnections in April are pointing to a wet start to the month. The Pacific North American teleconnection is sharply negative for the start of April indicating a more active weather pattern. Numerous weather systems will move across the region every few days bringing rounds of heavy rain to the Ohio Valley. The will allow for below normal streamflows to return to normal across the northern basin. Where the heavier rain falls, streamflows will fall in the above normal range.
