Southernmost Weather Reporter

Chip Kasper

Welcome to the Winter 2024 edition of the Southernmost Weather Reporter!  In this issue, we are featuring articles highlighting our primary programs and partners.  Did you know that the National Weather Service is required by law to provide weather warnings and forecasts for safe and efficient aviation and marine transportation, as well as for the safety of those first responders fighting wildfires across the Nation?  Our NOAA/Florida Keys National Weather Service team operates every day of the year out of our 24/7 facility in Key West, providing terminal aerodrome forecasts for Key West and Marathon Florida Keys International Airports at least six times per day for the safety of flight.  In addition, our team provides marine weather forecasts at least four times per day for 16 marine zones covering Hawk Channel, Florida Bay, the extreme southeastern Gulf of Mexico, and the Straits of Florida.  Incidentally, the U.S. Department of Defense has estimated that 40% of the world’s maritime commerce passes through the very busy shipping lanes in the Straits of Florida!  These marine weather forecasts support safe voyage planning and execution.  Finally, each and every morning, our meteorologists prepare specialized fire weather planning forecasts that are used to plan important prescribed burn operations in Federal- and State-managed lands in the Florida Keys.  The National Weather Service also deploys highly trained Incident Meteorologists, or “IMETS” to significant wildfires and other incidents across the country.  In fact, you will read about the summertime deployments of our very first IMET Trainee, Mr. Luis Ingram-Westover.  Finally, we will highlight some special visitors to our Key West operations, as well as rewarding visits by our staff with our federal, state, local, and industry partners throughout the year!  Please enjoy this issue of the Southernmost Weather Reporter, and have a safe and prosperous 2024!

In 2023, there were several staffing changes at the Florida Keys National Weather Service (NWS):

• Mat Goncalves, Electronics Technician at the Florida Keys NWS, accepted a position with the Office of Cuba Broadcasting with the same title in Marathon, FL. He concluded his tenure at the Florida Keys NWS in September 2023.
• Juan Agosto-Perez, Information Technology Officer at the Florida Keys NWS, accepted a job transfer with the same title at the Miami NWS.  Juan’s service to the Florida Keys NWS ended in October 2023. 
• Adam Picard and Jay Roberts joined the Florida Keys NWS team as Meteorologists in March and April 2023, respectively.
• Bryce Tyner, former Meteorologist at the Florida Keys NWS, received an on-site promotion to Lead Meteorologist in January 2023. 
• Keren Rosado-Vazquez, former Meteorologist at the Florida Keys NWS, accepted a position at the Tropical Analysis Forecast Branch (TAFB) in Miami as a Meteorologist. Keren’s service to the Florida Keys NWS ended in May 2023.
• Travis Washington, former Lead Meteorologist at the Florida Keys NWS, accepted a position at  the U.S. Department of Interior/Bureau of Ocean Energy Management as a Meteorologist. Travis departed the Florida Keys NWS in December 2023.

We wish the best to those moving on to new opportunities. For those joining the Florida Keys NWS, we embrace you with a warm welcome!

Adam Picard

What were you doing before joining the team at the Florida Keys National Weather Service (NWS)?

I provided weather forecasts for a Pacific military garrison and associated operations on the Ronald Reagan Missile Defense Test Site.  The closest analogy is that my job was similar to tasks faced by a forecaster at Cape Canaveral for NASA launches, just for different customers.  I lived at this garrison for 2.5 years and afterward provided remote support from Huntsville, AL.  Other tasks with this job involved administrative support, programming associated with radar and satellite operations, IT troubleshooting and support for the company systems, and creating training materials for new meteorologists.  My specialization in graduate school was tropical weather, and I found a job that involved forecasting for the deep tropics; this experience will be helpful when forecasting for the semi-tropical environment of the Florida Keys.

Where do you see yourself in ten years?

I hope that I will have found myself in a position as Lead Forecaster or on a career track to being a Science and Operations Officer (SOO).  However, I am aware NOAA has a much wider range of job positions, and my preferences may change with time.  I also hope I will be in a position where I either have a house or a more permanent residence, somewhere large enough that I would feel comfortable adopting a second cat.

What do you like to do in your free time?

I am a certified scuba diver, and I enjoy getting into the ocean to snorkel as well.  If I am traveling, I like going to amusement parks and skiing when I get the opportunity.  On a day-to-day basis, I practice the French Horn and I am trying to learn the ukulele.  I am a history and astronomy geek, and I listen to a lot of history podcasts when running errands or performing chores.  I do play video games, primarily single-player story-based games.  I enjoy board and tabletop games, and I am part of a weekly online playgroup.

Jay Roberts

What were you doing before joining the team at the Florida Keys National Weather Service (NWS)?

Prior to joining the Florida Keys National Weather Service, I was in graduate school. During this time, I also conducted independent research and worked with a storm chase group.  My independent research was focused on public perception of hazards listed in tornado warnings. I also spent a lot of time interrogating radar during severe weather events and looking at past cases.

Where do you see yourself in ten years?

Ten years from now, I see myself still working for the National Weather Service. However, with so many opportunities and unique locations, I am unsure of exactly where I will be in the agency at that time.

What do you like to do in your free time?

In my free time, I enjoy spending time with my partner and my dog, catching up with friends, watching TV, and coding (when I have time!).

Marine Heat Wave

Chris Rothwell

A dry spring, record-breaking summer heat, and light winds resulted in a marine heat wave across the Florida Keys. What is a marine heat wave? According to the Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary (FKNMS), “Any time the ocean temperature is above the 90th percentile for a specific length of time — meaning that the temperatures are warmer than 90% of the previous observations for a given time of year — you’ve got a marine heat wave.” The average water temperatures at the National Ocean Service water level sensor in Key West Harbor during June, July, August, and September (88.5, 90.9, 89.6, and 88.0 ℉, respectively) were nearly identical to the historical 90th percentiles. The 2023 average monthly temperatures for each of those four months were 4.0 to 5.6 ℉ higher than the historical average. 

Why was it hotter, drier, and calmer than usual this summer? The main weather systems across the globe are high (ridge) and low-pressure systems (trough). High-pressure systems are typically associated with fair weather, dry air, and if you are underneath the center of the high, light winds. This was the case for the Keys this past summer, with a nearly persistent ridge right across the Florida Keys and southern Peninsular Florida. According to FKNMS, this summer’s event was the longest-lasting marine heat wave dating back to 1991. This summer’s heat wave was particularly hard on the corals across the Keys, leading to severe bleaching. The last severe bleaching event in the Keys occurred in 2014-2015. 

The Key West water level sensor has been measuring water levels since 1913. Unfortunately, water temperature data only dates back to 1996. The data used in this article come from the National Data Buoy Center’s analysis, which uses data from 2005-2012.  Our Marine Program team will be sifting through the water temperature data over the coming months to create a more complete climatology, which will include data back to 1996, while also adding in the most recent decade.

Climate Summary

Dave Ross

Summer of 2023 featured quite the heat wave in the Florida Keys, bringing record heat to both of the island chain’s long-term climate sites at Key West International Airport and Florida Keys Marathon International Airport. In total, a staggering 110 daily warm temperature records were set or tied this past summer at the two observation sites, with the heat continuing well into September. Both sites shattered their previous records for the warmest summer on record, with average June-July-August temperatures besting the former titleholder years by 0.7°F at each site. Summer 2023 averaged 86.8°F at Key West and 87.7°F at Marathon. The previous records were 86.1°F (2020) and 87.0°F (2019) at Key West and Marathon, respectively. The normal, or long-term average spanning 1991-2020, temperature for summer at Key West is 85.0°F and 85.1°F at Marathon.

In addition to the plethora of daily records, there were several monthly and all-time records this summer that were set or tied. July in Key West saw the then all-time warmest minimum record of 87° tied on July 12th and 18th, the former being 2 weeks earlier than the previous occurrence of the warmest minimum temperature that was initially set on July 26th, 2007. Not to be outdone, August brought with it a new warm minimum record for the month and all-time, when a low of 88°F was recorded on the 9th. September’s maximum temperature was also tied at Key West, when the high on the 14th reached 95°F.  Records for the Key West area date back to July 1872. 

Marathon saw more impressive monthly records, tying the July and all-time high of 99° on the 13th and 24th. This record high had only been recorded once before, on July 15th, 1987. On the 18th, a new July and all-time warm minimum temperature record of 87°F was set, and this was tied again in August on the 8th, 9th, and 10th, also setting a new monthly record for August.  In September, Marathon set and then tied another new monthly maximum temperature, when highs of 97°F were recorded on the 16th and 17th.

Looking at average monthly temperatures, each of these months (with the exception of June at Marathon) ranks in the ‘Top 3’ for warmest on record. June average temperatures were 85.4°F at Key West (normal is 84.1°F) and 85.6°F at Marathon (normal is 84.4°F). July average temperatures were 87.7°F at Key West (normal is 85.4°F) and 89.5°F at Marathon (normal is 85.2°F). August average temperatures were 87.4°F at Key West (normal is 85.5°F) and 88.1°F at Marathon (normal is 85.6°F). September average temperatures were 85.4°F at Key West (normal is 84.1°F) and 86.5°F at Marathon (normal is 84.2°F). To put July’s heat in perspective, when Key West and Marathon ranked as the warmest Julys for both locations, the month also entered the record books as the warmest of any month ever recorded at each site.

This year is also in the top 10 for the number of days with a low of 80°F or higher at both locations. Through September 30th, Key West was in 9th place with 97 such days and Marathon was in 9th place with 88 days. Perhaps a more significant stat is the number of days with an average temperature of 90° or higher. Key West has seen 7 of these hot days in 2023, shattering the previous record of just 1 day. That 1 day was in 2007 and was the first time since records began in 1872 that an average temperature of 90° or higher was recorded in the Key West area. Marathon almost tripled the previous record of 9 days (2019), with 25 days this year averaging 90° or higher. As for the hottest days on record, Key West set a new record on 2 days (July 12th & August 10th) with an average daily temperature of 90.5°F and Marathon set a new record on 3 July dates (13th, 18th, & 24th) with an average of 92.5°F.

Luis Ingram-Westover

On June 14th, 2023, the Florida Keys National Weather Service held a Pride flag-raising event. This event is a first for the Department of Commerce, which allows for the Pride flag to be flown in coincidence with Pride Month, Pride Day, or other period that has been recognized by the President of the United States (such as by proclamation or public statement), statute, or regulation.  As part of the event, the staff color-coordinated their outfits to represent a different color in the Pride Flag.

Bryce Tyner

Justin McReynolds

The science of weather forecasting is always changing and innovating with new products and models constantly being developed. As operational meteorologists working in the field, part of our job is keeping up on the latest tools and evaluating them against our current methods for crafting daily forecasts. This process is no small endeavor and must be tackled by scientists from across the globe. Every year, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) and the National Severe Storm Laboratory (NSSL) co-lead a Spring Forecasting Experiment (SFE) inviting many from the meteorological modeling community to participate in critiquing up-and-coming models and forecasting tools against real-time severe weather days. 

This past spring saw the return of in-person participants for the SFE, allowing Florida Keys National Weather Service meteorologist Justin McReynolds to attend the Hazardous Weather Testbed in the National Weather Center located in Norman, Oklahoma. McReynolds joined a group of over 125 forecasters, researchers, model developers, university faculty, and graduate students from around the world participating both in person and virtually. This group was divided across the five weeks, with each person’s involvement lasting the length of one week. 

Throughout their stay, participants were tasked with comparing the previous day’s severe weather outbreaks to the available model guidance by filling out a series of questionnaires. Models evaluated included those that forecast future precipitation development at a storm scale, or Convective Allowing Models, and those that forecast the probability of certain severe weather events occurring at a certain time, or Calibrated Guidance. 

After lunch each day, a map discussion outlining the day’s severe weather chances commenced before breaking into groups to collaborate on making mock SPC severe weather outlooks for the next few days. The day would end with participants writing mesoscale discussions about ongoing weather conditions while utilizing the up-and-coming Warn on Forecast System (WoFS) to predict storm behavior in the watch-to-warning time frame. WoFS is a combination of model guidance overlaid with real-time observations in the same window. Due to its hourly run cycle, this system captures subtle environmental changes that allow timely updates of short-fuse products in warning operations. 

While models are far from perfect, experiments like this allow for these tools to be refined by feedback from both researchers and field operational meteorologists. It also gives a sneak peek at the next generation of these tools so forecasters can start learning about the next round of operational models and guidance. As a result, operational meteorologists can continue to provide world-class weather information to core partners and the general public.

Nancy Barnhardt

Florida Keys National Weather Service (NWS) Meteorologist Nancy Barnhardt attended and presented at the first annual Gulf Coast Aviation Workshop in New Orleans, Louisiana. This workshop was put on by members of the New Orleans NWS  and attended by NWS meteorologists, general aviators, USCG aviators, Louisiana National Guard aviators, multiple Center Weather Service Units (CWSU), FAA members, terminal ground support, and a few commercial airline meteorologists. Many of these attendees were also presenters, which led to a large array of topics covered. The first day was largely NWS attendees presenting on various topics such as WFO products and services, case studies of Fog and IFR events along the Gulf Coast, and an exercise in making a Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for a specific environment in Florida. 

Barnhardt’s presentation at this workshop involved the forecasting challenges at Key West International Airport. She went through various meteorological set-ups and talked about how meteorologists at the Florida Keys NWS forecast them (i.e. cumulus cloud lines, lightning, wet season, etc.). One topic also discussed in this presentation was the lack of observations that make forecasting, especially squall lines and higher wind events, much harder.  Another tidbit shared during the presentation was how it was important to not just focus on the observation, because sometimes they may not be fully representative of what is happening at the airport. The example she gave to back this statement up was that sometimes when a cumulus cloud lines set up overtop of the airport (either EYW or MTH),  the Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS) samples below Visual Flight Rules (VFR) cloud ceilings, when in reality it is only one strip of clouds directly overhead as opposed to more impactful expansive cloud coverage. It was relayed to private pilots who were in attendance that while the ASOS is registering lowered ceilings, it may just be sampling the cloud line that may have set up over an airport and remained stationary. 

Overall, this workshop was very enlightening and a great experience for all attendees This workshop is set to take place again in 2025 in a different Gulf Coast location.

Dave Ross and KEY Alumnus Sandy Delgado

Meteorologists from the National Weather Service (NWS) Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs) in Miami and Key West joined the National Hurricane Center for a tour of Royal Caribbean’s Symphony of the Seas on February 18th. The main part of the tour took place on the bridge, meeting with the Captain and First Mate to discuss how they use NWS products and to learn what products they issue internally across their fleet of 70 ships. The captains and crews aboard cruise ships are already quite weather-aware, but continuous education on available resources and tools can be invaluable to better marine decision-making.  

All Royal Caribbean ships are part of the NOAA Voluntary Observing Ship Program (VOS) and the officers provided a brief overview of how they take and transmit observations. Learn more about VOS here: https://www.vos.noaa.gov/

These partner interactions are pivotal to maintaining strong relationships and help us accomplish our goal of saving lives and property.

Luis Ingram-Westover

Florida Keys National Weather Service Office meteorologist Luis Ingram-Westover deployed to Oregon and California as the office's first-ever Incident Meteorologist (IMET) to support wildland firefighter operations. Ingram-Westover assisted operations for two separate incidents, the Bedrock Fire in Oregon and the Six Rivers Forest (SRF) Lightning Complex and Redwoods Lightning Complex, or the 2023 SRF Lightning Complex for short. Ingram-Westover served a total of 14 days providing daily briefings, conducting weather watches, collecting weather observations, and issuing warnings. His work was invaluable not only to those who were fighting the wildfires but also to the communities who were affected by these fires. To learn more about the IMET Program, please visit  https://www.weather.gov/news/imet-article .

Michael Vuotto

On June 17th, 2023, Florida Keys National Weather Service meteorologists Mike Vuotto and Nancy Barnhardt attended Discovery Saturday at the Florida Keys Eco-discovery Center and gave a presentation on who we are, what we do, and focused on the topic of hurricanes since hurricane season had just begun. The question “Am I at risk during a hurricane?” was posed to get people thinking about what actions they should be taking should a hurricane impact where they live. The presentation was followed by an interactive weather-themed bingo game, as well as a fun science experiment. On display were two-liter bottles with one faced upright and the other upside down connected together by a small tube filled with a liquid. The idea of this was to turn the bottle upside down to let the liquid start flowing to the other side while shaking it clockwise or counterclockwise to simulate a tornado in the bottle. The idea was to show that once you start to concentrate more matter it will flow more smoothly than if it is all trying to go through at once. Lastly, a demonstration was conducted in which one jar was filled with ice-cold water and the other with hot water. Food coloring was added to the jars, with the food coloring taking much more time to reach the bottom in the cold jar. This showed that cold water is more dense than warm water and that the molecules wouldn't move as quickly. In warm water when the red food coloring was added, it spread out quickly because warm water is less dense and molecules are moving faster. After the warm and cold water experiment, Barnhardt and Vuotto provided a summary of what was happening and related it to hurricanes.

In January of 2023, the Florida Keys National Weather Service began providing bi-weekly email weather briefs to staff members at Key West International Airport to support the ongoing construction of the terminal building. Each brief includes a weather synopsis for the upcoming week, detailed forecasts for both the daytime and overnight periods for the first three days, and a more general daily forecast for days 4-7. The weather parameters in the briefing matrix include wind speed, wind direction, rain chances, and thunder chances. Color coding was added for each day, with five different colors each depicting different thresholds of each weather parameter. These briefs will continue through the entire construction project, which is expected to extend through early 2025. While not solely for the purpose of the airport’s construction, Airport Weather Warnings (AWWs) are also issued for wind gusts 35 knots or greater, lightning within 5 miles of the airport, or ½” hail or greater. Airport security is alerted directly, who then initiates an alarm warning to ensure the safety of all airport personnel from any impending weather hazards.