Holiday Farm Fire, Western Oregon

The week leading up to the Labor Day wind storm was full of anticipation and questions. While the exact impacts were unknown at the time, there was the chance that this storm could become one of the strongest east wind events in recent history for Oregon. Unbeknownst to forecasters, the wind storm, warm temperatures and extremely dry conditions would set the scene for a number of incredibly destructive fires that plagued the Pacific Northwest.

Models began to show abnormally strong offshore flow which reminded me of the Tillamook Burn event of 1933. We did some research and found a lot of similarities. - Dave Elson, NWS Portland Lead Meteorologist

Once the synoptic pattern of the storm became a bit more clear, there was a connection that was made that this storm strongly resembled the Tillamook Burn wind storm. This wind event ignited fires burning nearly 350,000 acres of land which cost $442.4 million contemporary (1933) dollars. Once the pattern was recognized, the response of meteorologists was intensified. The main features that drive a strong offshore wind event like this can be described as having a strengthening ridge over the Pacific partnered with a surface thermally induced low pressure, juxtaposed to a digging trough and associated thermally induced high pressure. Add in the abnormally hot temperatures for the time of year, and incredibly dry conditions and the scene was set for a few hazardous fire weather days.

The water year brought a drier than normal set-up with Portland seeing around 75% of it's normal precipitation and areas around Eugene (Lane County) only receiving 52% of their November-May precipitation. With the stage set for drier fuel conditions, the addition of a warm summer only intensified those impacts. In fact, ERC values (representative of fuel dryness) were in the 80th percentile for 40+ days during the summer. Nearly all areas reported some of their driest fuels around the time of the Labor Day fire storm; fuels were ready to burn!

The first mention of the potential for hot, dry and windy weather occurred on September 2nd with a Red Flag Warning being issued for the central and southern Willamette Valley including areas of Marion, Polk, Linn, Benton and Lane Counties.

While the pump was already primed, confidence was low in whether or not the winds were really going to be as bad as they were appearing. By the afternoon runs on September 3rd, models were honing in further on the potential for high winds with the hint that they could move outside of the Columbia River Gorge (a typically very windy spot) and into the Willamette Valley. Confidence began to grow.

To put this event into perspective, the 00Z NAEFS and EPS means suggest an offshore flow event of this magnitude and at this time of year (late Aug-mid Sep) occurs less often than once every 30 years, based on 1970-2009 climatology. In other words, it never occurred during that period. If current guidance suite verifies, it will probably be fair to call this a historic offshore flow event for this time of year. As a result, fire weather concerns abound. - NWS Portland AFD, September 4th 3:32am

The office was at full staffing, it was Labor Day and everyone prepared for what could be one of the most historic events in recent memory. With gusts up to 75 mph possible, incredibly dry conditions and the added holiday, all forecasters were on high alert. The decision was made that it was time to have a candid conversation with the public. Facebook Live was used to answer questions, explain the risks and address fire weather concerns. Nearly 50,000 people were reached and over 500 questions were asked. It was stressed that fire danger was high, and that people should be diligent with their activities.

The fire was first reported around 8:20PM PDT on the 7th. At the time, winds at the Pebble Raws station (44° 14' 00" N, 121° 59' 00" W in FWZ608) reported winds at 14mph gust 36 mph. Maximum wind gusts reached 39 mph. Now while that may not seem as high as the 60+ mph winds seen elsewhere in the state, those values in the 99th percentile for winds at that location. Winds greater than 10 mph make up less than 1% of reports.

With the Holiday Farm fire in full swing, emergency managers hopped right into action with evacuation plans in place. Almost immediately the area around the Holiday Farm RV Park were evacuated as well as the cities of Vida and Blue River along the McKenzie Hwy. The fire quickly spread threatening or burning Nimrod, Leaburg and a 20 mile stretch of the McKenzie River.

There were over 2500 displaced residents and tens of thousands of structures threatened by the fire. 911 buildings were lost to the blazes in the towns of Blue River, Vida, Nimrod, and Leaburg. In the area around the Upper McKenzie, 150 homes were lost and the entire Upper McKenzie Rural Fire Department.

Over 100,000 residents were without power or communications due to damage and a Public Safety Power Shutoff. People wanted to go home, but didn't know what would be left.

The fires weren't the only challenge facing the people of Lane County. On top of being evacuated and not knowing what was left of their homes, thick smoke covered all of western Oregon.

Air quality was so poor and the sky was obscured to the point that people didn't know if it was day or night.

For days the NWS Portland office was coordinating with the Department of Environmental Quality almost daily discussing air quality concerns.

Once the fires slowed some, it was time for the search and rescue efforts. Spot forecasts were issued 4 times daily for the Lane County search and rescue efforts through mid-October. Sadly, one life was lost in the Holiday Farm fire. A state of emergency was issued by Governor Kate Brown, and the incident was declared a disaster on September 15th, 2020.

Through the fall with large atmospheric events, there is the continued threat of debris flows through the burned areas. While the fire is contained, there are still many waiting to rebuild. Weekly phone calls between the NWS Portland and emergency managers continue as the restoration efforts persist. Internal studies have already been completed, and ongoing work will be done to determine forecasting tools for potential debris flows on the Holiday Farm burn area.

"I was the initial IMET for the Holiday Farm Fire. I've been on three Calfire incidents (including twice in Napa Valley), and the Holiday Farm looked just like one of those. I think people were shocked by it. The ODF district forester there, Chris Cline, is a friend of mine, and we talked quite a bit about it during my deployment. He told me that they knew it was theoretically possible, but nobody really believed it would happen. Thankfully, the loss of life was less than some of the fires I've seen, but the damage was stunning. I don't think any of the automated observations did the winds justice. Judging by the damage, they must have been incredible."

Also, the smoke from the Holiday Farm Fire was the worst I've experienced in my career. I was there for 20 days, and I doubt that visibility at the ICP improved much above a half mile for the first two weeks. I had my first experience with super-fog on this incident as well."