2024 Market Potential

Esri Methodology Statement, rev. 11/12/24

Overview

Esri's 2024 Market Potential data measures the likely demand for a product or service in an area, as well as expected consumer attitudes on topics such as spending, health, and the environment.

The database includes an estimate of the expected number of consumers and a Market Potential Index (MPI) for all items. The MPI compares the demand for a specific product or service in an area with the national demand for that product or service. The MPI values at the U.S. level are 100, representing overall demand. A value of more than 100 represents higher demand, and a value of less than 100 represents lower demand. For example, an index value of 120 implies that demand in an area is likely to be 20 percent higher than the U.S. average; an index value of 85 implies that demand is 15 percent lower.


Market Potential calculation

Esri estimates market potential by combining next generation Tapestry segmentation data with the MRI Survey of the American Consumer, 2023 Doublebase from MRI-Simmons. While the new segmentation system will not be fully released until 2025, the Market Potential model incorporates the new neighborhood classification system. The 2023 Doublebase integrates information from four consumer survey waves covering the time period March 2021 through May 2023. Each survey respondent can be identified by Tapestry segment, so a rate of consumption by Tapestry segment can be determined for a product or service for any area.

The Expected Number of Consumers (households or adults) for a product or service in an area is computed by applying the consumption rate for Tapestry market segment n to households or adults in the area belonging to Tapestry segment n and summing across 60 Tapestry segments.

MPI consumption rate formula
MPI consumption rate formula

The Local Consumption Rate for a product or service for an area is computed as the ratio of the expected number of consumers for a product or service in the area to the total households or adults in the area.

MPI expected number of consumers formula

The MPI for a product or service for an area is the ratio of the local consumption rate for a product or service for the area to the U.S. consumption rate for the product or service, multiplied by 100.

MPI local consumption rate formula

Note that Market Potential product codes include an 'a' or 'h' following the first five digits to indicate a consumer base of adults or households, respectively.


Market Potential update

Esri's 2024 Market Potential database incorporates the next generation Tapestry Segmentation with new and revised items from the Doublebase 2023 consumer surveys to provide a fresh outlook on local consumer preferences. The 2024 data includes 3,400 items collected from MRI-Simmons surveys, grouped into the following thematic categories:

Esri 2024 Market Potential data categories

Esri 2024 Market Potential data categories

The Esri 2024 Market Potential update includes more than 70 new items including the following:

  • Ailment and prescription drug information
  • Healthcare advertising actions
  • Personal health appliances
  • Ownership or leasing compact or full-size pickup trucks
  • Additional streaming video subscription services
  • More recent video game consoles
  • Pet food retailers
  • Online grocery purchase pickup and delivery
  • Identification as vegan or vegetarian

Note that there are two primary reasons why an item is dropped from the Market Potential database:

  • The Survey of the American Consumer no longer includes the item of interest in the questionnaire.
  • The item of interest failed a statistical test for minimum sample size. In many cases, a thematically similar, new item is created using data binning (for example, combining quantities, expenditure ranges, and so on to increase sample size).

The 2024 Market Potential update also includes a  glossary  for abbreviations used in the item descriptions.


Data resources

Learn more about  Esri's Market potential data , or contact sales at 1-800-447-9778.


Esri's corporate headquarters are in Redlands, California.

Esri, the global market leader in geographic information system (GIS) software, location intelligence, and mapping, helps customers unlock the full potential of data to improve operational and business results.

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Contact Esri

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About Esri's Data Development team

Led by chief demographer Kyle Cassal and economist Douglas Skuta, Esri's Data Development team uses sophisticated quantitative methods to produce small-area demographic and socioeconomic data to support informed decision-making. The team builds on a rich history of market intelligence to produce trusted independent estimates and forecasts for the United States based on innovative methodologies that use public and private data sources with the power of ArcGIS. Esri's Data Development team provides more than 7,000 proprietary data items to better understand the characteristics of people and places across multiple statistical and administrative boundaries and custom trade areas.

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Esri 2024 Market Potential data categories