2021/2026 Esri Consumer Spending

Since 1980, the Consumer Expenditure Surveys (CEX) program has provided the data to study consumer spending and its effect on the gross national product. The primary goal of the survey is the regular update of the Consumer Price Index. Nationally, the data is also used to measure the effects of economic policy changes or assess the welfare of populations such as the elderly or low-income families. For more than 30 years, Esri has leveraged the CEX survey microdata to model consumer spending trends and measure local demand for goods and services.

Esri has combined the latest Consumer Expenditure Surveys from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) to estimate current spending potential. The continuing surveys include a Diary Survey for daily purchases and an Interview Survey for general purchases. The Diary Survey represents record keeping by consumer units for two consecutive weeklong periods. This component of the CEX survey collects data on small, daily purchases that could be overlooked by the quarterly Interview Survey. The Interview Survey collects expenditure data from consumers in five interviews conducted every three months. For further information on the BLS CEX surveys, refer to the  U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics .

Esri integrates data from both surveys to provide a comprehensive database of all consumer expenditures. To compensate for the relatively small CEX survey bases and the variability of single-year data, expenditures are averaged from the 2018 and 2019 surveys.

Esri has updated the models used to estimate consumer spending with its 2021 Updated Demographics and its market segmentation system, Tapestry Segmentation. The model that links the spending of consumer units in CEX surveys to all households with similar socioeconomic characteristics is a conditional probability model that integrates consumer spending with Tapestry to differentiate consumer spending by market. Spending patterns are developed by Tapestry markets and calibrated to current levels of income. Consumer spending estimates represent the expected annual expenditures for the 2020 calendar year and therefore reflect COVID-19 adjusted income estimates.

Beginning with the 2019 release, Esri developed a more refined probability model that better defines spending by market type. The distinction is effective among the smallest US market areas, where differences in consumer spending can be difficult to measure, and for the largest ticket items, where consumer preferences are more pronounced. 

Direct comparison with previous CEX databases is affected not only by changes in consumer spending but also by changes in the source data. The BLS routinely adds new on-trend consumer items and drops redundant items from its data. Esri takes into consideration sample size when determining items to keep in our listings.

Esri’s Consumer Spending database is built on the foundation of the BLS Consumer Spending Surveys. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), a component of the National Income and Product Accounts, from the Bureau of Economic (BEA) also provide spending estimates. While the CEX surveys report price change from the consumer perspective, the PCE combines data from multiple government sources, administrative data and trade associations including the Census Bureau’s Economic Census, Retail Trade Surveys, Service Surveys and the BEA’s International Transactions Account.[1] The CEX surveys U.S. civilian noninstitutional households, but the PCE captures the full population as well as nonprofit organizations. Indirect spending to benefit the consumer, such as employee-paid health benefits are also accounted for by PCE. More information on the difference between BLS’ CEX survey and the BEA’s Personal Consumption Expenditures is provided in this  study . Caution must therefore be exercised when using Esri’s Consumer Spending estimates as a measure of market size. As a guide, we recommend treating the database as a budget allocation tool. In other words, given the income of a typical household in an area, Esri’s consumer spending estimates determine the expected distribution of annual budget dollars to spending categories.

A correction was made to several asset categories beginning with the 2019 Esri release that preclude comparison of these expenses to prior releases. New experimental tables from the BLS revealed that calculations for asset items needed to be treated differently from regular expenditure items. Due to the lack of clarity regarding how to treat asset items from the survey, our previous methods produced a considerable underestimation in these dollar amounts.

Data is reported by product or service and includes total expenditures, average spending per household, and a Spending Potential Index (SPI). The total expenditures value represents the aggregate amount spent by all households in an area. Esri follows BLS’ reporting convention where the average expenditure reflects the average amount spent per household in the area. Note that the average expenditure for any item consumed by only a small percentage of households will be significantly lower than the average expenditure of only households that purchased the item. 

The SPI compares the average amount spent locally for a product to the average amount spent nationally. An index of 100 reflects the average. An SPI of 120 indicates that average spending by local consumers is 20 percent above the national average.

Esri's consumer expenditure offering has been expanded to include a five-year projection. The model assumes current spending patterns and leverages five-year demographic updates to estimate consumer spending. In other words, this is a demand planning tool that estimates the market for consumer items based on current-year consumption preferences. 

Esri not only updates its list of product codes to reflect changes in the list of items reported by the survey but also reevaluates the sample size of low-frequency items. To better reflect the cost of owning a home, Esri has recategorized financial items covering the cost of home equity loans, special assessments, and closing costs to the housing category. CEX data for 2021 and 2026 is reported for 735 products and services summarized in the spending categories below.

• Food at Home 
• Food Away from Home
• Alcoholic Beverages
• Housing
• Household Services
• Household Goods
• Apparel & Services
• Transportation excluding Trips
• Travel
• Health Care
• Entertainment/Recreation
• Personal Care
• Education
• Miscellaneous Expenses
• Life & Other Insurance/Pensions & Social Security
• Financial
• Retail Goods

[1]  CHAPTER 5: PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES 

For more information about Consumer Spending data, visit  esri.com/esri_data  or call 1-800-447-9778.

Esri, the global leader in geographic information system (GIS) software, offers the most powerful mapping and spatial analytics technology available.

Since 1969, Esri has helped customers unlock the full potential of data to improve operational and business results. Today, Esri software is deployed in more than 350,000 organizations including the world's largest cities, most national governments, 75 percent of Fortune 500 companies, and more than 7,000 colleges and universities. Esri engineers the most advanced solutions for digital transformation, the Internet of Things (loT), and location analytics to inform the most authoritative maps in the world. Visit us at  esri.com 

380 New York Street Redlands, California 92373-8100 USA

1 800 447 9778 | T 909 793 2853 | F 909 793 5923

 info@esri.com  |  esri.com 

 Offices worldwide