UBC Trees in a Changing Climate

Predicting the impacts of climate change on urban forest diversity at UBC Vancouver from 2050 to 2080

Chris Liang

April 4, 2021

Sunset view of UBC Vancouver Campus. Source: University of British Columbia (UBC)

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Western red cedar tree crowns turning orange due to drought in Vancouver. Source: Toronto Star.

Diagram of ecosystem services provided by trees year-round. Source: Burkhard and Maes 2017.

The University of British Columbia Vancouver campus. Source: UBC News.

Boxplot showing that the average latitude of campus tree species ranges shifts northwards by 8.1 degrees by 2080.

Bar graph showing that 65 of 88 broadleaf species and 19 of 36 coniferous species are expected to retain habitat at UBC in 2080.

Map showing species richness change from 1990 to 2080 across North America according to climatic suitability. Projection: WGS1984 LCC.

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Douglas fir trees in a forest. Source: Plant Therapy.

Pacific madrone, a species that is drought tolerant and has low tolerance to frost. Source: Rich Leighton.

Planted rows of black locust trees; a horticultural species invasive in parts of NA. Source: Plants for Designers.

Acknowledgements

Many thanks to Emma Luker (UBC Campus + Community Planning) and Laura Arango (SEEDS) who have guided me through the project development and planning process as my topical mentors; also Amy Blood for providing me with technical support. Thank you to Francois du Toit for feedback on my proposal drafts and Dr. Paul Pickell for teaching FCOR 599: Project Development and Proof of Concept in the MGEM program.

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