2022 State of Climate Services - Energy

EDF Coordinating Climate Adaptation at a Group Level

Overview: Using the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), the global energy business EDF has created an internal climate service to access global climate observations and projections in a consistent way.

Challenge: Electricity generation, load and transmission are highly dependent on the weather conditions. Therefore, EDF, one of Europe’s major electricity companies, launched a research programme devoted to climate change in 1990. The 2003 heat wave underscored the necessity of adapting to the ongoing changes in the climate, and a series of climate change impact projects were launched starting in 2004. Because the demand for climate impact studies kept growing, coming from more and more branches of the group, it became necessary to ensure consistency between the different studies, in order to appropriately inform the adaptation strategy at the group level.

Result: Relying on scientific partners and on international data portals like the Copernicus Climate Data Store (CDS), a subset of around 20 models was selected among all the contributors to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects, and the corresponding projections were downloaded and stored internally. In terms of emission scenarios, the largest number of scenarios available for most of the models was considered. The selection was based on various criteria, including the model dependency, the IPCC AR6 best estimate equilibrium climate sensitivity range and the need to best cover the projection spread. Sub-ensembles of EURO CORDEX projections were also retrieved. Basic tools devoted to the manipulation of the datasets have been proposed and shared: calendar management, search for available variables, extraction of selected variables over a chosen region or for selected grid points, bias adjustment and downscaling. Dedicated studies have been devoted to the comparison of different downscaling approaches, as well as to temporal downscaling to hourly timesteps. For nuclear power plant adaptation, a methodology has been proposed to select four combinations of a climate model and an emission scenario projecting, respectively, one low-change scenario, two intermediate-change scenarios and a high-change scenario at the 2050 horizon. Furthermore, some dedicated studies necessitate the development of targeted methodologies. For example, nuclear power plant safety continuity involves the estimation of very rare extreme levels in taking climate change into account. Original approaches have been proposed and published to estimate future return levels of high temperatures based on the extremes of a standardized variable and the changes in mean and standard deviation, or future extreme low flows using stochastic modelling. This allows EDF to regularly update knowledge about the sensitivity of its assets, especially nuclear power plants, and take adaptation measures to ensure resilience or inform decisions on the design and location of future power plants.

Partners: EDF and C3S.

Climate-proofing of Local Development and Investment Plans in the Dolomites

Overview: The Socio-Economic Regional Risk Assessment (SERRA) method can map historical and future climate risk to multiple sectors in Italy’s Belluno Province.

Challenge: The uncertain evolution of climatic hazard, related to different factors such as internal uncertainty, model uncertainty and scenario uncertainty, calls for policy preparedness, prompt adaptation strategies and the integration of potential climatic impacts into national and regional planning. Considering this, practitioners in multiple economic sectors – from infrastructure to finance – are becoming more and more aware of the importance of climate-proofing in strategic planning and decision-making, to cope with climate risk. Climate change is recognized as a new source of risk to financial and economic stability, negatively affecting productive capacity and social well-being.

Result: The SERRA integrated approach combines classical spatial risk assessment with socioeconomic analysis, enabling estimation of the damages associated with potential risks of different types for different economic activities. By aggregating historical and future risk maps over the whole of Belluno Province, we found an increase of up to 6.2% in the direct climate risk and a 10.2% increase in the indirect climate risk for wet snow events in the 2036–2065 period. A series of sectoral sets of maps and tabular syntheses provides private and public decision makers with extensive documentation that can be considered when making strategic decisions for investments and planning with medium to long-term perspectives. Results show that some areas have combinations of multiple risks at higher levels, which should be carefully considered in planning. This is the case in key areas for eyewear production (Longarone, Sedico, Agordo), where risks for winter sports are also present. Even more relevant is the combination of high risks for summer tourism with moderate to high risks for both electricity distribution and winter sports in the area of Cortina.

Partners: Venice International University (VIU), the CMCC Foundation – Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, Ca’ Foscari University of Venice and Enel Foundation.

Integrated weather services for offshore wind power production in China

Overview: An early warning system aims to address risks to human life, energy stability and company assets via an online platform which issues warnings and recommendations regarding weather events posing risks to offshore wind farm operations.

Challenge: Offshore wind farm operations face high risks to human life, as well as high operational costs and risks. Users determined their need for this service due to losses of around RNB 100 million that resulted from the cutting of an underwater construction cable in a dangerous weather event. The July 2022 sinking of the Fujing 001 offshore wind installation ship, located near facilities owned by a user of this service, further highlights the ongoing need for life-saving technologies such as this.

Result: The service provider estimates that it provides around 100 early warning notices per wind farm per year. Warnings are received by the users in time for stakeholders to react immediately and to a sufficient degree, and wind farms owned by users of this service report no losses of human life or company assets since its implementation in late 2020. As equipment used for the construction of new offshore wind farms is rented, accurate and reliable information on when weather conditions will be ideal for construction helps reduce the costs of construction. The service user CGN New Energy experienced a reduction in construction costs of RNB 11 million (0.5%) per year across its eight wind farms. Accurate predictions of when weather conditions will be ideal for maintenance also help decrease the amount of time that wind turbines are inactive (and not generating electricity), thereby increasing the maximum amount of power generated per turbine per year. Thanks to the precise maintenance window prediction provided by the service, “trouble-free operation time” of wind turbines has increased by 10 hours per year. In turn, increased reliability of wind power generation allows for greater penetration of wind power into the country’s energy mix, and decreases energy costs.

Partners: China Meteorological Administration.

Early Weather Warnings to Safeguard Electricity Supply for Beijing

Overview: To better safeguard Beijing’s electricity supply security, the Energy Service Team under the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) has worked with the Beijing Branch of State Grid to create a precise early warning system. Challenge: As a megacity, Beijing requires a continuous and highly reliable power supply. Extreme weather events, such as rainstorms, floods, gales, hail, and cold waves have caused great threats to the operation of Beijing’s power grid. In recent years, various meteorological disasters and their derivative factors caused more than 50% of all distribution network failures. Result: Using this system, the power grid has obtained significant economic benefits, residents have enjoyed stable power transmission, and power grid operators have better safety protection. The system helps achieve accurate disaster prevention for the grid and flexible dispatch during disasters, thereby helping avoid or reduce serious disaster losses for the grid (equipment losses, power outage losses, casualties, etc.). It also reduces the cost of emergency management and disaster prevention. In addition, pressure on power-grid employees during disaster prevention has been reduced. While it is difficult at present to quantify the economic benefits the system creates, these are still increasing. Social benefits are also significant. The system helps improve the efficiency of and reduce costs of disaster prevention. This effectively solves the past problem of the coexistence of excessive disaster prevention costs and insufficient prevention of power cuts. It helps to effectively improve dependability of regional power supply, greatly reducing social and economic impacts from power outages. Partners: CMA and State Grid Beijing Electric Power Company.

A Solar Atlas to Guide Energy Management and Planning in Egypt

Overview: A solar atlas developed by the Government of Egypt, with support from the Group on Earth Observations (GEO) CRADLE initiative, is being used by the Government to plan future national investments and the efficient exploitation of solar energy. Challenge: Egypt’s economic development is heavily reliant on the energy sector. To tackle growing energy demand, the Integrated Sustainable Energy Strategy (ISES) to 2035 aims to ensure security and stability of supply in Egypt, emphasising the role of renewable energy and energy efficiency. The Government of Egypt has set renewable energy targets of 20% of the electricity mix by 2022 and 42% by 2035, to be achieved through new investments as well as rehabilitation and maintenance programmes in the power sector. The continuous provision of accurate and timely information, through coordinated and sustained Earth observation activities, is considered a key enabler for informed decision-making in response to challenges such as increasing access to energy in the face of climate change. In this context, large international initiatives such as GEO and Copernicus are promoting the integration and coordination of Earth observation capacities at regional, national and international levels. Despite continuous progress, further potential remains for improving the uptake of Earth observations for energy applications, including in North Africa and the Middle East. Result: Based on the analysis of Egypt’s ISES, IRENA recommended undertaking comprehensive measurement campaigns at areas with a high potential for renewable energy, to prepare for large-scale solar and wind investments in the country. Subsequent large-scale projects have included the Benban Solar Park, which started its operation in 2018 and is currently the fourth largest solar power plant in the world, with a total capacity of 1 650 MW nominal power. In 2014, there were 4 or 5 companies working on solar energy; now, there are more than 250. The collaboration between GEO CRADLE and the Government of Egypt led to the development of the Solar Atlas of Egypt, which has been used by the Government to plan future national investments and the efficient exploitation of solar energy for the implementation of ISES 2035. Data from the Solar Atlas and the website have helped secure funding for these solar projects as well – close to US$ 2.2 billion in Egypt. The collaboration also included the nowcasting of the solar energy potential in real time in order to support the Egyptian energy authorities to better plan solar energy demand. Notably, the Solar Atlas provided information on the climatology of the solar resources and its application for management of solar-based electricity power plants and grid integration strategies across three subregions (Cairo, Alexandria and Southern Egypt). Partners: WMO, GEO, GEO CRADLE, EuroGEO, e shape, Copernicus, EUMETSAT, Ministry of Electricity and Renewable Energy of Egypt, NREA, National Observatory of Athens (NOA), Physical Meteorological Observatory in Davos/World Radiation Center, and Center for Environment and Development for the Arab Region and Europe.  

Earth Observation-based Services to Support Long-term Planning for European Energy Systems

Overview: A study commissioned by the Government of France to support the country’s commitment to a 40% reduction of national energy consumption by 2050, the revitalization of the nuclear sector, investments in green hydrogen, and the development of solar and onshore and offshore wind has identified a pathway to carbon neutrality for 447 million European citizens. Challenge: The transition to clean energy requires climate services to demonstrate the benefits of renewables for CO2 reduction and to improve the efficiency of renewable energy systems by optimizing their performance. Such services also help with planning the development and integration of renewables at local, national and regional scales, today, tomorrow and for future decades. Result: The findings of the feasibility study were endorsed by the Ministry of Ecological Transition of France. The study, and a similar study undertaken at European level through the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity (ENTSO¬ E), set the scene for future carbon neutrality for 447 million European citizens, and many more if market interconnections are taken into account. Partners: WMO, GEO, GEO VENER, EuroGEO, e-shape, C3S, MINES Paris, and RTE.

Rural solar electrification in Mali

Overview: A partnership between the West African Development Bank (BOAD) and the Government of Mali will use climate services to scale up rural electrification through solar PV mini-grids. Challenge: In Mali, 70% of the population lives in rural areas, and 80% of the rural population lacks electricity. The solar potential (PV and concentrated solar power (CSP)) of the whole of Africa was analysed by IRENA in 2014. According to this study, Mali is situated in a region with high solar potential, and the country is considered to have resources particularly conducive to the development of solar technologies. Despite the immense potential of the country, only 3% of electricity is produced from renewable sources (excluding hydroelectric production). Though Mali has a high potential for solar energy, grid extension to all is currently not feasible due to myriad technical and financial challenges. Thus, mini-grids have the potential to bridge the energy access gap while greening Mali’s electricity supply. Under the Paris Agreement, Mali committed to reduce emissions in its energy sector by up to 31%. Its National Adaptation Plan of Action (NAPA) and 2011 national climate change policy and strategy feature renewable energy as a key component for achieving its climate targets. Result: The project is expected to install 3.78 MW of power in its first tranche, providing emissions reductions of 821.8 kt of CO2 equivalent over its lifetime. It will improve access to electricity for 28 300 households and encourage investment in tools and appliances that improve economic productivity. Beyond increasing energy access, the project’s public–private partnership model allows for the de-risking of energy access by improving commercial viability while encouraging the participation of the private sector. The project’s technical assistance component will strengthen the capacity of institutions to engage with private sector stakeholders in the future. Partners: BOAD and the Government of Mali.

Climate Services Supporting Renewable Energy Applications in Germany’s Transport Infrastructure

Overview: Climate data provided evidence in support of a potential significant expansion of solar power generation capacity. Challenge: One limiting factor for the extension of renewable energies can be the available land for installation of either PV or wind energy systems, especially in densely populated regions. The identification of further suitable areas and structures can therefore promote the expansion of renewable energies.

Result: Using high-quality climate data, the potential installation of PV panels on noise barriers was investigated. This revealed an annual generation potential of more than 1 400 GWh, enough to cover the average annual electricity demand of 450 000 households in Germany. In order to estimate the potential energy yield and the associated GHG reduction, these data were linked with DWD climatological information. The yield mainly depends on solar radiation, but the efficiency of PV modules also depends on their temperature, which is not only influenced by the ambient temperature, but also by the wind speed. Therefore, a model that takes these dependencies into account is used to estimate the yield. It was driven by high-resolution climatological data in order to make a reliable overall assessment taking into account long-term site-specific details. High-resolution surface radiation data are now available from satellites for several decades, including the SARAH 2 data set (second edition of the Surface Solar Radiation Data Set – Heliosat) used in the study. SARAH 2 is provided by EUMETSAT’s Satellite Application Facility on Climate Monitoring (CM SAF) and based on data from the METEOSAT satellites. It provides solar surface irradiance data for the period from 1983 onwards at a temporal resolution of 30 minutes. Other meteorological parameters derive from the regional reanalysis COSMO REA6. The quality of both data sets has been extensively evaluated in previous studies and they are openly available for similar applications. The high temporal resolution of the data was also helpful to investigate further details, for example whether the energy can be provided to consumers in the infrastructure in a demand-oriented manner. In particular, the temporal profile of pumping requirements of the waterways was considered. The regional reanalysis also provides several other parameters, for example, including wind speed at hub height of wind energy converters, which is also used in further activities of DWD in support of wind energy extension in Germany’s offshore regions in the North Sea and Baltic Sea. Partners: DWD, Federal Railway Authority, Federal Highway Research Institute, Federal Institute of Hydrology and CM SAF.

Sector-specific Localized Wind Resource Information to Aid Wind Industry Decision-making Process

Overview: Using reanalysis data, Vortex, a private sector entity serving the wind-power sector, has reduced the error in wind products by 3%–4%. A 1% reduction of the error in the wind, for a typical project of 100 MW with a 35% capacity factor for an installed wind power capacity of 50 GW per year, implies savings of approximately US$ 100 million per year. Challenge: Wind power generation is a key technology in the global pathway toward the NZE objectives of the European climate strategy and for European Union energy independence, with demand expected to lead to the ramping up of both onshore and offshore production systems by 2050. The wind energy industry requires climate-derived information at different timescales, depending on the specific project and application. High-resolution, high-quality information about the past climate is crucial to assess the viability of wind sites for development, and/or to monitor sites under construction or expansion. Energy traders, independent power producers and wind-farm operators use predictions of wind speed, direction and power production. They also use downscaled predictions of wind resources at different stages of their wind farm project development. Those users also need data to safeguard and maintain their assets and monitor energy production. Result: Reanalysis products are now part of the wind resource toolkit, used for early-stage site screening as well as for finance close/due diligence energy and site assessment final analysis. Solutions like the one offered by Vortex are crucial as the wind energy market expands into new regions and offshore wind development approaches global scale. Using ERA5 data, Vortex has improved wind products by reducing the error by 3%–4%. A rough estimation of the impact of a 1% reduction of the error in the wind, for a typical project of 100 MW with a 35% capacity factor for an installed wind power capacity of 50 GW per year, implies savings of around US$ 100 million per year. Partners: ENTSO-E, Vortex, Climate Scale and Lautec

Supporting Climate-resilient Hydropower Operations with Hydrometeorological Data Analytics in Tajikistan 

Overview: By enhancing the capabilities and capacity of Tajik Hydromet, and providing an essential upgrade to observations and monitoring, the country aims to reduce its vulnerability to climate change. Challenge: Over the past decade, Tajikistan has made steady progress in reducing poverty and growing its economy. However, its high vulnerability to climate change and recurring disasters continue to challenge to sustainable economic growth. Between 1992 and 2016, almost seven million people were affected and US$ 1.8 billion, equivalent to around 1% of GDP, was lost. Result: Fully recognizing the importance of timely and accurate hydrometeorological data and forecast analytics for the safe and efficient operation of hydropower plants, one of the project’s accomplishments was to help develop procedures for using hydrometeorological information and forecasts in dam operations and flood management plans. Tajik Hydromet has applied new techniques to provide more targeted information to Barqi Tojik, a state-owned power utility, while the latter offers additional hydrological data back to Tajik Hydromet to further improve forecasts. The power of data and analytics was evident when Tajik Hydromet gave advance warning of a dry year to Barqi Tojik, which afforded precious time to enable the company to plan ahead. Overall, the project raised the awareness of the importance of weather and climate services in Tajikistan and delivered a major upgrade to the observation and monitoring network, laying the foundations for further improvements in service delivery. In addition to upgrading the observations network, the project increased the sustainability and performance of Tajik Hydromet, as well as increased the capacity of stakeholders in the hydrometeorological value cycle, including through the provision of technical assistance from advanced NMHSs, such as the Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI). Moreover, on a regional level the project promoted greater cooperation between the five NMHSs in Central Asia. These agencies possess a wide range of capabilities and are all Russian speaking, which provided the opportunity for knowledge sharing among countries. For example, colleagues in Kazakhstan were able to support training in Tajikistan and the Hydrometeorological Centre of Russia was also able to provide some technical assistance. Partners: European Bank for Reconstruction and Development and CIF.

Supporting the uptake of hybrid renewable energy systems in South Africa

Overview: Thanks to decentralization of the energy system in the Eastern Cape Province, poorer communities can access clean energy, reduce their reliance on fossil fuels and save money. Challenge: The Eastern Cape Province in South Africa has been engaging in several renewable-energy initiatives to improve access to electricity, create jobs and alleviate poverty. One of the initiatives is the Upper Blinkwater Smart Project, developed to provide a decentralized, sustainable and hybrid mini-grid system. The system is based on renewable energies and diesel backup. It provides electricity access for poor rural households, which are also vulnerable to extreme weather events. The provision of renewable energy has facilitated community development, increased job opportunities within the community and reduced beneficiaries’ consumption of fossil fuels. Result: Benefits from the hybrid energy system included community access to clean and affordable energy that is used for economic activities such as goat cheese production and processing of fruits and vegetables. This was possible because the renewable energy system assisted with the production of water that was then utilized in farming activities. Households saved between R 30 and R 800 (US$ 2 and US$ 49) per month, which was previously used to purchase paraffin and candles. Other benefits include reduced deforestation and health risks associated with the use of firewood. The use of renewable energy also contributed to achieving SDG Goal 4 on education, as it relieves women and children from the burden of spending valuable time collecting firewood, which can then be used for other productive activities and education. The hybrid energy system also created opportunities for the community members to enhance their technical skills, as they received training on how to attend to electrical issues within the households. Partners: GIZ, Deutsche Zusammenarbeit, Province of the Eastern Cape and Raymond Mhlaba Municipality

A Global Platform Assessing the Potential Installed Capacity of Hydrology, Wind and Solar Energy

Overview: The Global Renewable-energy Exploitation Analysis (GREAN) platform aims to alleviate the problem of inconsistent and incomprehensive data on and evaluation of clean energy potential. Challenge: Transformations towards low-carbon and green growth are accelerating in energy industries all over the world. Some international organizations have assessed the theoretical potential of wind, solar and hydropower. However, the assessment approaches show disadvantages such as incomprehensive data, inconsistent evaluative criteria and lack of investment cost forecast. These assessments can hardly provide practical solutions for renewable energy base site selection or power transmission planning. Result: Theoretical, technical and economic potential for global renewable energy are being evaluated. So far, site selection for 35 hydropower bases, 94 wind power bases and 90 PV bases, based on development potential and resource character analysis, has been developed, providing guidance for large-scale development and utilization of global renewable energy. Power transmission schemes for major global renewable energy bases are being put forward, based on the development of power supply and demand around the world. Considering the distribution of large-scale energy bases and major power consumption centres, the grid planning realizes the ambition of multi-energy inter-regional outbound transmission, mutual complementarity across time zones, and cross-seasonal and global allocation. Partner: GEIDCO.

Sub-seasonal and Seasonal Forecasting Helps Clean-energy Companies Make Better Decisions

Overview: The S2S4E Decision Support Tool (DST) was developed in collaboration with three energy companies to provide them with scientifically-based information on weather and climate conditions affecting wind, solar and hydropower generation capacity and energy demand expected over the coming weeks and months. Challenge: The future energy system is envisaged to rely primarily on renewable energy. Renewable energy supply and demand operations are affected by the evolution of atmospheric conditions at different time scales. Increasing integration of renewables into the power mix is making the electricity supply more vulnerable to climate variability. To address an increase in renewable energy demand it is important to have flexibility in the system and smart technologies to anticipate and better manage changes in energy generation. Scientists and operational centres and services have been investing considerable effort and resources to improve sub-seasonal and seasonal forecasts over the past decade and have made substantial progress. Such forecasts are now able to predict the evolution of some large-scale extreme weather events several weeks in advance and to show whether the upcoming season is likely to be drier or wetter, or hotter or colder, than normal. Yet it remains challenging to link the complex probabilistic information these forecasts provide to industry-specific applications. Result: An analysis verifying the usefulness of the tool was conducted by regularly assessing users’ applications and challenges. Economic evaluations of past events and assessments under real-time forecast conditions documented user benefits and potential risks. Through these collaborative efforts, the DST has showed that it can deliver tailored services with demonstrated benefits. Partners: S2S4E Climate Services for Clean Energy Horizon 2020 project: Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Center for International Climate Research (CICERO), University of Reading, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), Agenzia nazionale per le nuove tecnologie, l'energia e lo sviluppo economico sostenibile (ENEA), EDF, EDP Renewables (EDPR), Energie Baden-Württemberg (EnBW), The Climate Data Factory (TCDF), LGI, Nnergix and Capgemini

An Energy Interconnection Scheme is Promoting Climate Mitigation and Sustainable Development in Africa

Overview: An energy interconnection scheme will help both in reducing energy poverty across the continent and in preparing for the worst impacts of a changing climate. Challenge: At present, Africa faces energy poverty and climate risks. The percentage of people with access to electricity in Africa was 48.4% in 2020. The average electricity price in African countries is as high as US$ 0.14/kWh, which is two to three times the worldwide average cost in developing countries. In addition, 70% of energy for household heating and cooking and other basic domestic use comes from traditional biomass, such as firewood, charcoal and animal manure, resulting in serious indoor air pollution and GHG emissions. Hence, it is necessary to consider the energy–climate nexus and provide clean energy as well as sustainable development for Africa. Result: The scheme helps accelerate electricity access and energy transition, so as to achieve multiple SDGs in Africa. Regional power pools in Africa are improving the power systems under the scheme. The total installed renewable energy capacity in Africa has grown by over 24 GW since 2013. Solar, wind and hydropower capacity increased by over 10% annually. The costs of solar PV and wind electricity fell 82% and 55%, respectively, between 2010 and 2019. As a result, the number of people without access to electricity in Africa decreased from 613 million in 2013 to around 572 million in 2019. Partners: GEIDCO, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA).

Weather Information and Services Helped the Beijing Winter Olympic Games Achieve a 100% Green Electricity Supply

Overview: An intelligent, panoramic monitoring platform for power transmission, and a scaling up of technology innovation, helped deliver a historic first for the Games in China. Challenge: The phrase ‘100% green power’ refers to all venues of the Beijing Winter Olympics achieving reliable supply of green power throughout their entire life cycle. However, renewable energy resources are greatly affected by natural conditions, and there are uncontrollable factors such as randomness, volatility and intermittency. The safe and stable operation of the power grid faces three major challenges: low green electricity prediction accuracy, difficulty in load peak regulation and high risk of meteorological disasters. It is urgent to provide reliable support from meteorological services. Result: The Beijing Winter Olympics became the first Olympic Games in history that achieve 100% green electricity supply. About 400 million kWh of green electricity was consumed during the Games, which is equivalent to avoiding the combustion of 128 000 tons of standard coal and 320 000 tons of carbon dioxide emissions. Partners: State Grid Corporation of China and State Grid Jibei Electric Power Co.