Housing Land Audit 2021

Completions for 2020/21 have dropped to 226 new homes built. This is down from an average of approximately 400 completions during the previous few years due to the arrival of Covid-19 and the subsequent site delays.

Interestingly, it was the private market which produced the most completions during 2020/21 (187 out of 226), when many building sites were closed in the UK due to a nationwide lockdown between April 2020 and June 2020. The previous year, 2019-2020 pre-Covid, there were 179 market housing completions showing the private market remained relatively unaffected within North Ayrshire during the first year of the Covid-19 pandemic.  

We did however see a reduction in completions from the affordable sector with only 39 units completed during 2020/2021. These units have not been lost and delivery is now timetabled for 2021/22 – 2024/25. This in turn has boosted North Ayrshire’s housing delivery programme over the next 5 years.

There was a total of 157 sites as of 1 April, and 79 of these are considered effective and will deliver new homes in the next 5 years.

There were 33 active sites, 9 sites were completed and there have been 10 new sites added to the supply accounting for a potential 193 new homes.

The 9 completed sites contributed a total of 402 new homes. Of the 9 sites completed, 5 sites were delivered by the private sector, 3 sites by the affordable sector and 1 site was a joint venture between the private sector and North Ayrshire Council to deliver a mixed tenure site. These sites delivered 109 of the 226 completions recorded.

In last year’s 2019/2020 Housing Land Audit we programmed, based on market intelligence and HLA data analysis, that 211 units would be completed during the 2020/2021 period. However, the actual figure of 226 new homes has exceeded this prediction and is a positive sign given the restrictions and pressures faced by the construction sector since March 2020. Prior to Covid-19 we had expected this figure to be higher; above 400 units as a minimum.

However, the future programming in the chart opposite demonstrates the recovery and the strength of the North Ayrshire Housing market with a rise in completions to come over the new few years. Based on our programming we expect completions to increase and hopefully exceed pre-Covid rates from 2021/22 with 500 units and above being delivered each year.

The chart also shows programming slowing down during 2025/26. However, we don’t expect this to be the case once further sites come forward through either the SHIP and/or the private market. Come this summer we should be more certain on programming for 2025/26 after completing market intelligence with developers and landowners.

In total, 965 new homes were approved via a planning application (612 new homes approved) or through a certificate of lawfulness (353 new homes). The 353 units associated with the Certificate of Lawfulness will be delivered by North Ayrshire Council as part of the Strategic Housing Investment Programme (SHIP).

Across the UK, not just within North Ayrshire, post-Covid with home working being a normal working arrangement the housing market has seen an increase in activity with record sale prices and strong buyer demand from people looking for more space and better quality living. North Ayrshire provides this whilst being close to the Glasgow region. This has been confirmed by discussions with local estate agents who have seen increased interest from people looking to relocate to North Ayrshire as many people continue to work from home. With this in mind we expect demand for housing in North Ayrshire to remain strong.

This trend is also demonstrated on the Isle of Arran and Cumbrae with record sales rates of self-build plots post pandemic. Many of these sites had been left undeveloped but a flurry of activity has been seen on these sites during 2021.

As of 1 April 2021, 157 sites made up North Ayrshire’s Housing Land Supply with a remaining capacity of 8665 new homes. The majority of this land supply is found within the Irvine & Kilwinning sub-market area (See chart opposite).

4697 of the 8665 new homes are from our 5 year effective housing sites. This gives confidence in our land supply’s ability to provide a supply of land for new homes. From this effective supply capacity of 4697 new homes we anticipate 2654 new homes to be delivered within the next 5 years from the 1 ^st  April 2021 as shown by Housing Sub-Market Area in the chart opposite.