Smokehouse Creek, GSL and the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law
Introduction
In recent years, wildfire seasons in the United States have had devastating effects across the United States. Between 2020 and 2023, the National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC) reported 243,503 wildfires that burned over a cumulative 27.5 million acres 4 . Additionally, The Fifth National Climate Assessment found that drier and warmer weather due to climate change could continue the ongoing trend of longer and more severe wildfire seasons 8 .
The map below depicts all non-prescribed fires between 2020 and 2022. It is easy to see that wildfires can and do impact almost every town and district of the United States.
Map of non-prescribed fires between 2020 and 2022. In the western half of the United States, all recorded fires burned more than 1,000 acres, while in the eastern half of the United States, all recorded fires burned more than 500 acres.
Now more than ever, our ecosystems, property and lives are under constant threat from wildfires’ direct and indirect impacts across the country.
A showcase of this extreme reality was witnessed on February 26, 2024, when a series of wildfires ignited across the Texas Panhandle. One of these wildfires came to be known as the Smokehouse Creek Fire, and it has distinguished itself as the largest wildfire in Texas history at over 1 million acres burned.
In this Story Map, we will discuss the background of the Smokehouse Creek Fire and its impacts, which span from the local to the national level. In addition, we will talk about the fire weather research the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Global Systems Laboratory (NOAA GSL) is conducting and how that research can assist with wildfire predictions and preparedness now and in the future.
This research includes a host of projects that were funded by the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law. For an overview of the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law in regards to fire weather research, refer to this Story Map by NOAA’s Global Systems Laboratory and NOAA Weather Program Office 6 .
Before we get into the Smokehouse Creek Fire, let’s review what fire weather is:
Fire weather refers to the set of weather conditions that interact with fires. It includes both the conditions that allow fires to grow and spread and the conditions that allow smoke and ash to travel up to thousands of miles away from the source of the fire.
Fire weather is important to study because fires do not behave independently of the atmospheric conditions around them but instead are influenced by and, in turn, influence the atmosphere. This interaction is why the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has embraced fire weather research and the interagency coordination that wildfires necessitate over the past few years.
The four main conditions that impact fire weather are temperature, humidity, wind, and recent precipitation. These conditions, in turn, influence the amount of moisture in potential fire fuels. This helps determine how easily these fuels will ignite and sustain fires, and how quickly fire can spread across the landscape.
Another important area of fire weather research is understanding how smoke spreads under diverse conditions. Wildfire smoke can cause very different impacts depending on where it travels in the atmosphere. Of course, that depends on the wind’s direction, strength, and shear (change in speed and/or direction with height).
Being able to model and predict how smoke spreads may not be able to stop the smoke, but it can allow officials to prepare resources beforehand to keep people safe and informed about poor air quality.
Smokehouse Creek Fire
Background Information
The Texas Panhandle is no stranger to wildfires, especially fires caused by downed power lines. According to a Texas House of Representatives Investigative Committee formed for the February 2024 wildfires, downed power lines caused more than 1,300 wildfires and burned over 1.4 million acres from 2000 up to the eve of the Smokehouse Creek Fire. In addition, the Texas Panhandle has specifically seen wildfire occurrences increase since 2006 2 .
In the Texas Panhandle, one peak of the wildfire season is in late winter to early spring. In January–February 2024, the normal danger of fire was increased by a stretch of warm temperatures and strong winds. Elevated fire conditions were present almost continuously starting Feb. 18. On the day of the fires, Feb. 26, a red flag warning, wind advisory and high wind warning (see Glossary for definitions) were all issued from the NOAA National Weather Service Office in Amarillo, TX.
Weather Map of the continental United States on the morning of February 26, 2024.
It was under these fire weather conditions that a powerline broke and sent sparks into nearby dry fuels. Suddenly, the Smokehouse Creek Fire, which would become the largest wildfire in Texas history, broke out.
Notably, the Smokehouse Creek Fire was not the only fire that started on Feb. 26. At least three other fires started that day, including the Windy Deuce Fire, which burned over 144,000 acres and eventually threatened a nuclear facility 3 in Carson County; the Grapevine Creek Fire, which threatened the town of Lefors, TX; and the Juliet Pass Fire, which burned near Claude, TX.
Impacts
The Smokehouse Creek Fire had many impacts on the Texas Panhandle.
Some of these impacts were environmental. For example, the fire burned over a million acres, most of which was grassland. Though grasslands tend to recover quickly from the wildfires compared to other ecosystems, the damage to the soils of those grasslands in the Texas Panhandle could still take years to recover from.
Click to see the peppered chub's U.S Fish and Wildlife Service profile.
In addition, the Lower Southern Canadian River valley lies in the middle of the burn area of the fire. The topography of the river valley made it more difficult to fight the fire due to a lack of access points. Importantly, the Lower Southern Canadian River is deemed a critical habitat for an endangered species of fish, the peppered chub 9 . A review of studies found that runoff from within wildfire burn areas could hold metals such as lead and mercury and increase metal concentrations above federal quality standards 7 .
Below is a map of the Smokehouse Creek Fire perimeter (red) with the critical habitat of the peppered chub (black) highlighted.
Map of the Smokehouse Creek Fire (red) and the critical habitat of the peppered chub (black).
There were also social impacts from the Texas fires. Most obvious is the displacement of many in the fire’s path. While the area burned by the fire is rural, 500 structures were destroyed, including homes. This, in combination with residents losing their main sources of income in some cases, means it will be difficult for the community to recover financially from the impacts of the fire. Some residents may decide to leave the area for more opportunities elsewhere, fragmenting communities.
While Texans are known for their ‘can-do’ attitudes, there are events where socially vulnerable subgroups experience challenges disproportionately. The map below focuses on just one source of vulnerability in the areas affected by the Smokehouse Creek Fire: age.
Age can create vulnerability to disasters in multiple ways. For older adults (65+), their age raises the risk of many health problems, and a significant number of older adults also struggle with limited mobility or sensory awareness. In addition, older adults tend to live in older homes, especially in rural areas. Due to both their age and the age of their homes, the structures may be in need of repair even before the disaster happens. Finally, if retired, older adults may have very limited incomes, which means they have less funds for disaster recovery. All of these factors can lead to increased vulnerability.
For minors, the biggest factor in their increased vulnerability is their dependence on working adults. Most minors cannot have their own steady incomes, so if the adults around them are injured or lose their source of income, the minor does not have their own safety net to rely on. In addition, a review of studies 1 found that young children may be more susceptible to physical health problems from wildfires, especially from wildfire smoke. Minors also face secondary, indirect impacts from wildfires, which include disruptions to their education and learning. This may have longer term implications for their ability to get academic-based opportunities that could help them through the rest of their lives.
The map to the side shows the Smokehouse Creek Fire burn area on top of the percent of the population in dependent age groups (under 18 and 65+) by census tract, according to the USA 2020 Census. Clicking on a census tract will give you the exact percentage of dependent-age and working-age populations in that tract.
Finally, the most visible impacts from the Smokehouse Creek Fire were economic. Cattle ranching is one of the most important industries in the panhandle, and an estimated 15,000 cattle (some of whom were pregnant) were killed directly by the fire. Many more will likely have to be euthanized due to their injuries, but the total number is not yet known.
The soil impacts previously mentioned will also hurt ranchers. Since it’ll take years for the land to recover, ranchers in the area will not be able to use many of their lands for grazing cattle.
Between the loss of cattle herds and the lack of grazing area, economic productivity will likely be stifled in the affected areas for a while. There are some tax reduction programs for individuals affected by the fire, but that will translate to less money being available to their counties for services, including services that may mitigate the next wildfire in the area.
Two satellite images that show the extent of damage from the Smokehouse Creek Fire. The first image is from before the fire (Jan. 28) while the second image from after the fire was contained (Mar. 28).
Research and Research Impacts
NOAA plays a vital role in supporting federal, state, local, and tribal partners to prepare for the threat of wildfires and to battle the blazes that endanger life and property. NOAA's forecast products range from short-term warnings to long-term seasonal predictions and include air quality and smoke forecasts related to wildfires. NOAA also provides real-time fire and smoke detection using new imaging capabilities from geostationary and polar-orbiting satellites.
At NOAA, scientists are addressing the impacts from wildfires with a comprehensive five-part strategy for wildfire-focused projects funded through BIL, and the nation is already reaping the benefits.
NOAA's Five-Step Implementation Strategy is as follows:
1) Engage the broader fire weather community, including end-users, to better understand how to build a Fire-Ready Nation.
2) Deploy new observation systems to better monitor the environment around fires.
3) Advance early detection and prediction tools to help keep unplanned fires small.
4) Accelerate the development of targeted decision-support tools to improve risk assessment communication.
5) Equip decision-makers with new systems and technologies to keep firefighters and communities safe.
The research done by NOAA GSL and its partners supports this five-step plan and helps to mitigate the impacts from wildfires across the United States.
The Fire Weather Testbed (FWT) has been one of the most visible successes for the recent BIL-funded projects. In June 2024, researchers invited NWS meteorologists and state fire management partners from across the country to participate in the FWT’s inaugural in-person evaluation. The participants represented a diverse range of ecological fire environments (fuels, weather, topography and proximity to critical assets) and agency resource capacities.
Observers from NESDIS, NWS Headquarters, NWS Western and Central Region headquarters, NWS Storm Prediction Center, Southern Region Predictive Services and the Lab@OPM (Office of Personnel Management) were also in attendance. This evaluation tested the effectiveness of the Next Generation Fire System (NGFS), NOAA’s new satellite-based fire detection and monitoring algorithm, and an Integrated Warning Team (IWT) approach to issuing collaborative Fire Warnings between NWS meteorologists and their land management partners.
This initial experiment was an overwhelming success. Meteorologists and land managers collaborated in pairs to model the Integrated Warning Team framework for rapidly evolving wildland fire operational response scenarios. Participants worked through seven different displaced real-time simulations, including a simulation based on the Smokehouse Creek Fire. To model conditions as close to an operational environment as possible, only information known and forecasted ahead of these wildfire outbreaks was given to participants ahead of these simulations, with the modeled IWT working together to respond to the updated fire environment.
The first product evaluated by the FWT last fall was the new NESDIS LightningCast 5 , another BIL-funded project. This satellite-based product is meant to provide short-term forecasts of lightning probabilities, using data from the recently launched GOES-19 satellite’s geostationary lightning mapper. Lightning can directly harm firefighters, but also start new blazes while the main fire is being fought. It is important that forecasters and responders know what to look for so they can be proactive in their actions, instead of reactive.
In addition, the partnerships formed between NOAA entities, the EPA and U.S Forest Service will allow for better collaborative efforts to protect the environment and communities during wildfires.
Screenshot from LightningCast on July 15, 2024 at 15:40Z.
At NOAA GSL, research is being conducted to understand the social and behavioral dynamics that influence community preparedness and response to wildfire. This research will help meteorologists and other officials incorporate the needs of the underserved and vulnerable into products and services during wildfires, which can help to reduce the vulnerability mentioned earlier.
During the recent Fire Weather Testbed evaluation, social scientists conducted surveys and focus group discussions with participants to better understand how and why they made the decisions they did during the simulations. By conducting research on how people process information and make choices before and during wildland fire operations, decision-makers can better protect the most vulnerable people in the communities that are threatened by the fire.
Heavy construction vehicles thin the forest as a fire suppression technique during the Dixie Fire in Lassen National Forest, California. Social science research strives to understand the processes behind a number of wildfire-related decisions, such as which forests to target for fire suppression.
NOAA GSL and other NOAA labs are working to place four new observation facilities in western states and build two mobile observation trailers. These facilities and trailers will be a combination of equipment shared by GSL, the National Severe Storms Laboratory, Air Resources Laboratory, Chemical Sciences Laboratory, Physical Sciences Laboratory, Global Monitoring Laboratory and NWS Office of Observations. Unlike other weather observation stations, the instruments in these facilities target fire weather. NOAA GSL hopes to have all of these observation tools built by the end of 2024 using the funding from the BIL.
These tools will help observe fire conditions around the United States and give IMETs, decision-makers, and weather models better data to consider when making their decisions.
One of the trailers that will eventually be fitted with instruments for mobile observation missions.
The Rapid Refresh Forecast System (RRFS) is a model that has the ability to increase the amount of detail for better analyzing fire conditions with the Hourly Wildfire Potential forecast. It is one of the most collaborative projects out of the BIL-funded research at NOAA GSL, and is currently in the process of moving toward operations.
Parts of the RRFS were also funded by other laws, such as the Disaster Relief Supplemental Appropriations Act of 2022 (DRSA). This act funded the smoke and dust model fields, which will help forecasters and decision makers know where smoke from wildfires could be headed and prepare accordingly. In addition, it can give some indication of potential areas that will be impacted by smoke deposition, which can help scientists protect vulnerable areas of water from pollution.
Screenshot from the July 13, 2024 00Z model run of the RRFS. The product shown is the Hourly Wildfire Potential, represented as a percentage.
One of the recommendations by the Texas House of Representatives Investigative Committee to mitigate the impacts for future wildfires was to improve fire weather prediction and modeling 2 . The projects at NOAA GSL can help fulfill this recommendation with new model products for local officials to use. The previously mentioned Hourly Wildfire Potential is one example of a model product that will equip emergency managers and other officials with knowledge of where fires could start and where to stage their resources for best use.
Another tool is the RRFS soil moisture suite of products. Currently, the RRFS has products that model soil moisture zero, one, four and ten centimeters in soil depth. The modeling of this crucial layer of the soil can let forecasters and decision-makers know the general state of dryness in an area, which correlates with drier fuels. Therefore, there will be better knowledge, both before and during wildfires, about the state of fuels and where to target measures for preventing fire spread.
Screenshot from the July 13, 2024 00Z model run of the RRFS. The product shown is the surface soil moisture, represented as a fraction.
Finally, NOAA GSL has worked with the National Weather Service (NWS) on a suite of products for NWS meteorologists to use for forecasting, called the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS). With BIL funding, the NWS is transitioning this product to the cloud, which will expand the tools incident meteorologists (IMETs) will be able to use in the field.
IMETs on AWIPS in the Cloud, from NOAA National Weather Service
While the impacts of wildfire may seem inevitable, NOAA GSL is working on projects which will not only help our understanding of fire weather and behavior, but also in our preparation and response to fires around the country. Better forecasts will lead to decreased impacts from wildfires, and with the projects funded by the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, NOAA GSL is making strides to improve forecasts for years to come.
Glossary
Red Flag Warning- A red flag warning is issued alongside local land management agencies on a county-by-county basis. This warning indicates that fire weather conditions that lead to extreme fire behavior or extensive outbreaks are imminent or occurring. The point of a red flag warning is for decision makers to take action to prevent wildfires, such as burn bans and positioning of crews.
Wind Advisory- A wind advisory is issued when the following conditions are expected: sustained winds of 31 to 39 mph for an hour or more AND/OR wind gusts of 46 to 57 mph for any duration.
High Wind Warning- A high wind warning is issued when the following conditions are expected: sustained winds of 40 mph or higher for one hour or more OR wind gusts of 58 mph or higher for any duration.
References
1 Holm, S. M., Miller, M. D., & Balmes, J. R. (2020). Health effects of wildfire smoke in children and public health tools: A narrative review. Journal of Exposure Science & Environmental Epidemiology, 31, 1–20. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41370-020-00267-4
2 King, K., Burrows, D., Hunter, T., Abraham, J., & Henderson, J. (2024). Investigative committee on the Panhandle wildfires 2024 report. In Texas House of Representatives. https://www.house.texas.gov/pdfs/committees/393/House-Interim-Committee-on-The-Panhandle-Wildfires-Report.pdf
3 McKenzie, J. (2024, February 28). Texas wildfires force major nuclear weapons facility to briefly pause operations. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. https://thebulletin.org/2024/02/texas-wildfires-force-major-nuclear-weapons-facility-to-briefly-pause-operations/
4 National Interagency Fire Center. (2023). Wildfires and acres | National Interagency Fire Center. Nifc.gov. https://www.nifc.gov/fire-information/statistics/wildfires
5 NOAA. (2024, May 30). Biden-Harris Administration invests $250K to develop powerful artificial intelligence tool to assist wildland firefighting through Investing in America agenda . Www.noaa.gov. https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/biden-harris-administration-invests-250k-to-develop-powerful-artificial-intelligence-tool
6 NOAA Global Systems Laboratory, & NOAA Weather Program Office. (2024, February 29). Building towards a fire-ready nation. ArcGIS StoryMaps. https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/38566e05e3d0472cb8ce111d19648f67
7 Paul, M. J., LeDuc, S. D., Lassiter, M. G., Moorhead, L. C., Noyes, P. D., & Leibowitz, S. G. (2022). Wildfire induces changes in receiving waters: A review with considerations for water quality management. Water Resources Research, 58(9). https://doi.org/10.1029/2021wr030699
8 U. S. Global Change Research Program. (2023). Fifth national climate assessment | focus on western wildfires. Nca2023.Globalchange.gov. https://nca2023.globalchange.gov/chapter/focus-on-2/
9 U.S Fish & Wildlife Service. (2022). ECOS: Peppered chub (Macrhybopsis tetranema) species profile. Ecos.fws.gov. https://ecos.fws.gov/ecp/species/532
