COVID-19 disrupted daily life for individuals around the world and significantly impacted the global food supply chain. U.S. states began issuing emergency declarations in early March 2020. In the following weeks, states restricted large gatherings and closed schools, restaurants, and other congregate settings.
This analysis examines the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on the U.S. market for fresh tomatoes.
COVID-19 caused a sharp spike in food purchases at grocery stores while restaurant and food service sales plummeted.
Food service adjusted by offering increased delivery options, curbside pickup, and outdoor seating, but sales only partially recovered.
U.S. fresh tomato supply has roughly doubled in the past 40 years, with most growth occurring through imports. Fresh tomatoes represent nearly 10% of U.S. fresh produce imports by value.
Most fresh tomatoes sold in the U.S. are round and Roma tomatoes, with Romas becoming more popular. Over 50% of U.S. fresh tomato availability is destined for foodservice, while the remainder goes to grocery retail.”
Most fresh tomatoes consumed in the U.S. originate from Mexico, particularly in the case of Roma tomatoes. Market share of round tomatoes has declined in recent years.
To begin, we examine recent trends in tomato shipments over the course of the year.
Shipments of fresh tomatoes are highly seasonal. U.S. production of tomatoes shifts between Florida production from November to May and other domestic production from June until October. Production in Mexico occurs year-round, peaking in spring months.
The 2019-2020 growing season presented a number of market shocks in the fresh tomato industry.
Wet, cold winter weather in Mexico lowered supplies at the beginning of the season.
In early March, the COVID-19 pandemic hit the U.S., leading to stay-at-home orders, closure of restaurants and other foodservice establishments, and households stocking up on groceries.
In early April, the revised Tomato Suspension Agreement went into effect, requiring that 99% of tomatoes imported from Mexico to be inspected for their quality and condition upon import.
Impacts of the COVID-19 shutdown differ between domestically-grown Florida tomatoes and imported Mexican tomatoes.
Prices dropped sharply for both Florida and Mexico round tomatoes to at or below their five-year average trend during the initial "lockdown" period from weeks 11 to 15. Prices then recovered starting around week 17 (mid-April) and remained at or above the five-year average for the remainder of the season.
Shipments fell below their 5-year average for round tomatoes of both origins from weeks 11 to 15 during the lockdown. Mexican tomatoes remained below their 5-year average from weeks 15 to 18. Florida tomatoes were impacted to a much greater extent and remained below their five year average from week 15 until the end of the Florida season.
Roma tomato prices show a sharp decline in response to the COVID-19 shock, followed by at- or above-average prices for the remainder of the season. Volume of shipments tracked closely to its previous 5-year average for both origins for the entirety of the season.
How far off the previous 5-year averages were shipments in the 2019/2020 season?
For the first half of the 2019/2020 season, the volume of round tomato shipments exhibited similar trends compared to the 5-year averages for tomatoes from both Mexico and Florida. After week 11 when the lockdown started, however, shipments fell below the 5-year average for round tomatoes of both origins.
2019/2020 shipments of Roma tomatoes remained near or above average for most of the growing season, though Roma tomatoes of both origins trended to at- or below-average weekly shipments around the time of COVID-related business closures.
What did all of this mean for grocery shoppers at retail?
Despite declines in shipments following the COVID-19 shock, national retail prices for both round and Roma tomatoes tracked closely with their prior 5-year averages.
Round tomato shipping volumes saw significant declines following the start of COVID-19 related business closures. Mature greens saw the steepest drop. Roma tomato shipment volumes tracked with their five-year averages, though a modest decline in shipments in the weeks following COVID-related business closures occurred, particularly in shipments from Mexico.
Shipping point prices for round tomatoes (mature greens from Florida and vine ripes from Mexico), as well as Roma tomatoes, were at or above five-year average prices for nearly all of the 2019/20 season.
Generally, round and Roma tomato retail prices tracked with their 5-year averages. This contrasts with prices for other grocery commodities following the shock, such as meat and dairy, which saw large price increases after the onset of the pandemic.
Data on foodservice sales are lacking, however, media reports around the time of the initial COVID lockdown suggest that a significant share of Florida round tomato production was destined for foodservice prior to the pandemic [ 1 ] [ 2 ] [ 3 ] [ 4 ]. Meanwhile, reports of consumers stockpiling non-perishable grocery items (as opposed to fresh produce) may explain the decline in shipments of round tomatoes of Mexican origin, as well as declines in shipments of Roma tomatoes of both origins [ 1 ] [ 2 ] [ 3 ].
For more detailed analysis, the full research report can be viewed at the UA Agriculture and Resource Economics Department website.
