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Extreme Heat Vulnerability Mapping

NSEM Extreme Heat Forum – Wednesday, May 29, 2024

Welcome!

Hello, North Shore Extreme Heat Forum participants, and welcome to the Story Map for the project's online maps! The maps included in this Story Map help you explore the many different factors that influence how extreme heat events, identify groups that are especially vulnerable to the impacts of extreme heat, and highlight those neighbourhoods where exposure and vulnerability most strongly overlap.

For those who might not have encountered a Story Map before, the format allows us to share important information and context alongside the many maps produced for the project. This includes which factors were considered during the vulnerability assessment, where data was sourced from, and how to interpret some of the study's key findings. After the study, all of the geospatial layers generated for the project will be provided to our municipal and First Nations partners.

How to Use the Story Map

If this is your first time using a Story Map, we suggest scrolling down to experience and explore its content in order. This will ensure you don't miss any information that will help you understand some of the later components. Once more familiar with the story and its components, you can use the navigation bar at the top of the screen to move quickly between sections of interest or return to previous sections.

Many of the maps include quick links to areas of interest. Simply tap the 'Entire North Shore Region' button to return to the regional map once you done examining a highlighted area. Each map also has an 'Expand' icon in the top-right corner you can use to expand the map allowing you to explore a map in your own way. Click that icon again to return to the Story Map.

How to Provide Feedback

Our team would love to hear your feedback on the maps, mapping process, or extreme heat risk analysis currently underway for the North Shore region. Simply scroll to the end of the Story Map to find a feedback email you can use to connect with us.

Please Note: As these maps are still a work in progress, we ask that you not share this site with anyone outside your group. An updated Story Map is being developed to provide a more streamlined experience for the general public.

Vulnerability Mapping

Extreme heat is an inherently spatial hazard, with areas of elevated risk tending to cluster in nearby spaces with high spatial variability. While nearby areas tend to have similar built and natural environments, conditions across the region tend to vary significantly. Neighbourhood-scale factors, such as the amount of tree canopy cover or concrete and asphalt within a neighbourhood, can increase or decrease temperatures in surrounding areas.

Neighbourhood Scale

People within neighbourhoods often share similar socio-economic conditions that can make them more vulnerable (or resilient!) to extreme heat. Homes within a community tend to have been built around the same time, using similar methods and materials. Also, neighbourhoods tend to be small enough to experience similar local environmental conditions while remaining large enough for detailed data to be available. As a result, neighbourhoods are the perfect scale to explore the potential vulnerabilities to extreme heat across the North Shore.

Especially Vulnerable Groups

Many different factors also influence how individuals and families experience extreme heat, with some groups being more vulnerable to the impacts of extreme heat events. Such factors include health and disability, social integration, financial well-being, housing security and suitability, and local ecological effects.

There are specific sub-populations that we know are especially vulnerable to the effects of extreme heat from past extreme heat events. From the  BC Coroners Service (2022 ) report on the 2021 heat dome, these groups include:

  • The elderly,
  • Those with chronic health conditions,
  • Those with greatly reduced mobility,
  • Adults who live alone,
  • Those with no access to cooling at home or work,
  • Those living in older buildings, and
  • Those living in areas more impacted by extreme heat.

Using data from Statistics Canada's 2021 Census of the Population, information from our municipal and First Nations partners, and data from Metro Vancouver, we have attempted to incorporate information on as many of these groups as possible into the geospatial analysis of heat vulnerability.

Unfortunately, critical information about chronic health conditions and disabilities was unavailable to us at the neighbourhood scale and is therefore not represented in the following mapping work. Rest assured, this information was considered at the community scale as part of the Risk Assessment being completed as part of the broader project.

A mock-up of a mobile weather app showing extreme temperatures for the North Shore region.
A mock-up of a mobile weather app showing extreme temperatures for the North Shore region.

What the Maps Provide

The maps presented in this Story Map help provide context about how extreme heat exposure, vulnerability, and resilience can vary significantly across the North Shore.

These maps tell a story about how factors influencing vulnerability in one neighbourhood may differ greatly from those in another. They provide objective supporting evidence for the final risk assessment, identify communities with significantly elevated vulnerabilities, and help us understand which factors influence vulnerability in a given location.

Outside of this study, this information can be used to identify some of the root causes, barriers, and limitations at the heart of different kinds of extreme heat vulnerability, providing evidence and guidance for policy development and planning. This work can also help local governments identify community groups they could partner with to increase local extreme heat resilience from lessons learned elsewhere in the community.

Finally, they can help emergency managers and planners to identify where needs may be greatest during extreme heat events, develop strategies individualized to specific neighbourhoods, and pre-position material and human resources in advance of extreme heat events to locations where there is the greatest need.

Extreme Heat Indicators

Unfortunately, it is impossible to directly measure a neighbourhood's vulnerability or resilience to extreme heat. Instead, we rely on indirect measures that we call "indicators" that provide some evidence of whether a neighbourhood is likely to be more—or less—affected by extreme heat.

Since neighbourhoods can score high on an indicator for many different reasons, we don't rely too heavily on the effects of individual indicators. Instead, we look for neighbourhoods where high scores overlap across multiple metrics to identify those areas and people most at risk during extreme heat events.

Twenty potential indicators were evaluated to help us identify neighbourhoods across the North Shore region likely to be more vulnerable during extreme heat events. These indicators consider economic, social, housing, built environment, and other factors that can increase or decrease residents' vulnerability to extreme heat events. As you scroll down through each indicator, take a moment to look for areas that score high across several indicators — these will be the areas where interventions can have the greatest impact.

Neighbourhoods that score very low across multiple indicators tend to be more resilient to the impact of extreme heat events. These are places we can look for lessons that can be applied elsewhere to help increase overall extreme heat resilience.

Reminder: You can skip ahead using the navigation links at the top of your screen or continue scrolling to view the Story Map.

The Mapping Process

Our mapping team followed a six-step process to help us identify and map the factors contributing to extreme heat vulnerability across the North Shore.

Step 1: Identify Potential Vulnerability Indicators

This process began with identifying potential extreme heat vulnerability indicators based on similar projects, best practices, and common vulnerability group characteristics. 30 preliminary indicators from several sources were evaluated for data availability and suitability in the North Shore context.

Step 2: Mapping of Candidate Indicators

Preliminary maps were produced at a draft quality for review by the project team to check for potential issues with the source data. Some potential data issues were identified for correction, and other indicators were dropped after the review due to data gaps or poor suitability for the North Shore context.

Step 3: Statistical Analysis of Candidate Indicators

Next, a statistical review of indicators was conducted to check that each indicator provided a ' significant ' contribution to the project and to check for indicators with large amounts of overlap (i.e.,  correlation ). At this stage, a few additional indicators were removed as not statistically significant or because they had a high correlation to another, more suitable indicator.

All indicator values were converted to  standard scores  to facilitate comparisons between indicators with very different units of measure. Standard scores measure the distance of any neighbourhood indicator value from the regional mean for all neighbourhoods in the North Shore using  standard deviations .

Standard scores measure the number of standard deviations a neighbourhood value is from the regional average or 'mean.' Larger positive values are more vulnerable, while larger negative values are more resilient to extreme heat.

Step 4: Finalizing Indicator List & Production of Themes (Indices)

At this stage, the list of indicators was finalized and approved. A  principal components analysis  (PCA) was completed to reduce the data from all twenty remaining indicators to a set of statistically related themes (or 'indices').  Four themes  were identified for the North Shore region and are described in more detail later in the Story Map.

An overall vulnerability score was calculated for each neighbourhood using the weighted values for the four identified themes. Areas with high overall vulnerability scores show considerable overlap across multiple extreme heat indicators.

Step 5: Presentation at Engagement Meetings

Early maps were shared with community groups, advocates, first responders, and municipal teams to share what had been learned and solicit feedback and lived experiences. This feedback was incorporated into the mapping to help develop the North Shore region's overall extreme heat vulnerability narrative.

Step 6: Final Vulnerability Maps

The final extreme heat vulnerability maps are now available in this Story Map for those groups who contributed throughout the project to explore, discuss, and provide any final feedback to the project team. An updated and streamlined version of this Story Map is being developed to share the work and our findings with the public.

As you continue to explore the Story Map, you will learn more about the extreme heat vulnerability indicators, the four identified themes, which areas of the community are most vulnerable and most resilient to extreme heat, and which neighbourhoods are likely to experience extreme heat most profoundly.

Indicator Maps

Each of the twenty extreme heat indicators was mapped to identify how neighbourhood vulnerability varies for each indicator across the entire North Shore region.

These maps show indicator values based on how close an individual neighbourhood's value is compared to the average across the entire region, with less vulnerable places shown in lighter yellow colours and more vulnerable places shown in darker oranges and red.

Neighbourhoods are coloured based on how far they vary in standard deviations from the regional mean (average) for each indicator.

As you continue to scroll, you will be able to explore each of these indicators on its own map, learn where the data was sourced from, and see the spatial distribution of the data for that indicator across the North Shore.


Using the Maps: Click on the 'Expand' icon at the top right corner of any map to zoom and pan within it. Click it again to return to the Story Map. Clicking the house icon at the bottom right will return you to the original map scale.

Legend: You can click the icon in the lower-left corner of any map to show the legend. Click the 'X' button on the legend to close it again.

Economic Indicators

Low-Income Households

Low-income households are a commonly identified vulnerable group for most hazards. Evidence shows that low-income households experience the impacts of disasters more profoundly than higher-income groups. They may lack the financial capacity to retrofit their homes for energy efficiency, climate adaptation, or general disaster resilience. They often do not have the ability or cannot afford to leave their homes, even in dangerous situations like extreme heat. These households are less able to purchase air conditioning units. These factors combine to place these households at higher risk during extreme heat events.

Source Data For this assessment, we used Statistics Canada's  low-income cut-offs (after tax) , an income threshold below which families would likely have devoted a larger share of their after-tax income than average to the necessities of food, shelter, and clothing for census profiles from the  2021 Census of the Population .

Spatial Distribution There is a higher prevalence of low-income reporting households across West Vancouver relative to the rest of the region, particularly in neighbourhoods with above-average populations of recent immigrants.

Within the City of North Vancouver, a cluster of low-income households is located along the Lonsdale Avenue corridor, north of Victoria Park.

Data is not available for this indicator for First Nations reserves in the North Shore region.


Click the links below to be taken to points of interest on the map:

Households with High Shelter Costs

Households that spend 30% or more of their household income on housing are a commonly identified vulnerable group for most hazards. Households with high shelter costs may have more limited financial capacity to retrofit their homes for energy efficiency, climate adaptation, or general disaster resilience. They often do not have the ability or cannot afford to leave their homes, even in dangerous situations like extreme heat. These households are often less able to purchase air conditioning units.

Source Data For this assessment, we used the percentage of owner and tenant households spending more than 30% of household income on shelter costs based on the shelter-to-income ratio for census profiles from the  2021 Census .

Spatial Distribution The prevalence of high shelter costs varies considerably across the North Shore but is generally higher than the national average.

The largest concentration of households with high shelter costs is in the District of West Vancouver. A large cluster is located north of the Trans-Canada Highway from Chelsea Park east to the British Properties. A second cluster is located along Marine Drive from about 21st Street east towards the border with the City of North Vancouver.

Within the District of North Vancouver, there are several areas with above-average housing costs, with areas near Lions Gate and the Highlands neighbourhoods standing out.

Within the City of North Vancouver, a small strip of households with elevated housing costs is located along the Lonsdale Avenue corridor, which passes north from Lower to Central Lonsdale.


Unemployed Workers

Unemployed workers are a commonly identified vulnerable group for most hazards. The unemployed and their families may face housing and food insecurity and rely more heavily on social services. They may lack the financial capacity to retrofit their homes for energy efficiency, climate adaptation, or general disaster resilience. They often do not have the ability or cannot afford to leave their homes, even in dangerous situations like extreme heat. These households are less able to purchase air conditioning units.

Source Data For this assessment, we used the percentage of the labour force aged 15 and older who are not employed and seeking work for census profiles from the 2021 Census. The data represents a snapshot of employment status for a single week in 2021.

Spatial Distribution Unemployment across Canada has high spatial and temporal variability. Unemployment in the North Shore was generally lower than the national average (10.3%), with West Vancouver at 9.4%, the City of North Vancouver at 7.5%, and the District of North Vancouver at 7.3%.

There are a few small clusters where nearby neighbourhoods show elevated unemployment across the North Shore, but a systemic spatial trend does not appear. Neighbourhoods with higher unemployment also tend to face additional social, economic, and housing factors that may contribute to overall extreme heat vulnerability.


Social Fabric Indicators

Adults Living Alone

Those living alone are frequently identified as being at elevated risk from extreme heat events. Many lone adults, especially seniors and those with disabilities, tend to be more socially isolated, increasing their risk from many causes, including extreme heat. Single adults often have lower financial capacity than couples, which can make it more challenging to take action to reduce climate- and hazard-related risks. Adults living alone may rely more heavily on their extended social networks to assist with their health, well-being, and additional support needs.

Source Data For this assessment, we used the percentage of people living alone in private households without relatives, roommates, or others who share the same accommodation from the 2021 Census profiles.

Spatial Distribution There is a strong clustering of adults who live alone across the North Shore, with two primary clusters: one in the District of West Vancouver and a second in the City of North Vancouver.

In the District of West Vancouver, a large hotspot runs along Marine Drive from about 27th Street east to 11th Street and extends into Squamish Nation's Capilano Reserve. Additional hotspots can be found throughout the district.

In the City of North Vancouver, a hotspot runs along the Lonsdale corridor covering Central and Lower Lonsdale, spreading out several blocks in each direction and extending along 3rd and 4th Avenues.

Several small clusters exist within the District of North Vancouver along Edgemont Boulevard, Lynn Valley Road, and Squamish Nation's Seymour Reserve.


First Generation Status

Those with first-generation status were born outside of Canada but now make Canada their primary place of residence. Members of this group are now, or once were, immigrants to Canada. First-generation Canadians may need to adapt to different cultural conventions and learn new languages. They often lack awareness about local hazards, emergency planning, and response options. They tend to have more limited social networks, which limits opportunities for greater socialization, employment, and assistance during emergencies.

Source Data For this assessment, we used the percentage of the population with first-generation status from the 2021 Census.

Spatial Distribution There are a few strong, overlapping spatial trends that appear across the North Shore for this indicator:

First-generation residents are significantly more likely to live in the District of West Vancouver than in the other regional municipalities. A strong concentration of first-generation Canadians lives along the eastern half of the district. Within that area is a hotspot north of the Trans-Canada Highway, including the British Properties. A secondary cluster is located along Marine Drive east of Rodgers Creek and continues into the Squamish Nation's Capilano Reserve.

Within the City of North Vancouver, the Lonsdale corridor has elevated values for this indicator, stretching from 13th to 25th Streets.

The District of North Vancouver has a couple of smaller hotspots in the south to the east and west of the City of North Vancouver and along the community's northern edge.


Indigenous Identity

Indigenous communities in Canada, including Indigenous peoples living both on- and off-reserve lands, are uniquely sensitive to the impacts of climate change, given their close relationship to the land, greater existing health inequities and historic and ongoing burdens of colonialism. Disparities in the socio-economic status of Indigenous populations, social justice, and marginalization persist, factors that result in inequalities in education, employment, and income opportunities.

At the same time, many Indigenous communities have strong familial and social networks that provide greater support and assistance to their members. As a result, the Squamish and Tsleil-Waututh Nations experienced better outcomes during the 2021 Heat Dome compared to surrounding municipalities.

Source Data For this assessment, we used the percentage of the population that self-identifies as First Nations, Métis, or Inuk (Inuit). This indicator is more heavily influenced by the incomplete enumeration of certain reserves and settlements in the 2021 Census than most other census indicators.

Spatial Distribution Acknowledging that the national census likely under-represents Indigenous populations, those who self-identify as Indigenous represent 5.0% of the population Nationally. In comparison, in British Columbia the percentage is 5.9%.

The Indigenous population across the North Shore is significantly below national or provincial levels. Those with Indigenous identity represent approximately 2.1% of the population in the City of North Vancouver, 1.8% of the District of North Vancouver, and 1.0% of the District of West Vancouver.

The Squamish and Tsleil-Waututh Nations reserve lands understandably have higher Indigenous populations than surrounding neighbourhoods. Smaller levels of off-reserve populations can be found throughout the North Shore.

Indigenous Identity across the North Shore (shown as a percentage of the total population) is strongly skewed, with a few very high values and a majority of very low values.


Lone-Parent Households

Lone-parent households, especially female-led households, are often identified as among Canada's most socially vulnerable groups. Single parents of all genders face additional challenges around childcare, transportation, reduced financial capacity, and social support usually shared between parents within two-parent households.

Single parents often manage many stressors, including stigma, work-life balance, poverty, and scarcity of affordable childcare, food, and housing. Lone-parent households must rely more heavily on their extended social networks to assist with their health, well-being, and additional support needs.

Source Data For this assessment, we used the 2021 Census's percentage of households with a single parent, regardless of gender.

Spatial Distribution Across Canada, lone-parent households comprise approximately 8.7% of households; in British Columbia, that number falls to about 7.6% provincially. Single-parent households represent 8.8% of households in the District of West Vancouver, 8.1% in the District of North Vancouver, and 8.0% in the City of North Vancouver.

This indicator does not have a strong spatial distribution across the North Shore. This likely reflects the nature of housing and where young families are most likely to live within the region. This is influenced by housing availability, affordability, proximity to schools, proximity to one's extended familial and social networks, and other socio-economic factors. As a result, hotspots of lone-parent households can be found throughout the region.


No High School Diploma

Those without a secondary school (high school) education (or equivalent) are a commonly identified vulnerable group. Strong evidence shows that lower educational attainment increases hazard risk and social vulnerability across most hazard types. Individuals without a high school diploma often lack the financial capacity to retrofit their homes for energy efficiency, climate adaptation, or general disaster resilience. Those with low reading or computer literacy skills may not be aware of or fully understand emergency messaging, which can place them at elevated risk during extreme heat events. Across the North Shore, lower educational attainment is highest within older age categories.

Source Data For this assessment, we used the percentage of the population aged 15 years and older living in private households without a secondary (high) school diploma or equivalency certificate from the 2021 Census profiles.

Spatial Distribution Across Canada, those without a high school diploma make up approximately 18.0% of the population; in British Columbia, that number falls to about 15.3%. Across the North Shore, these values are significantly lower: 8.7% within the City of North Vancouver, 8.6% within the District of West Vancouver, and 8.2% within the District of North Vancouver.

Many small and medium-sized clusters for this indicator are scattered across the region, including along central and eastern West Vancouver, the northeast corner of the City of North Vancouver, and east of the Iron Workers Memorial Bridge in the District of North Vancouver.


Not Fluent in English

Those not fluent in a community's official language for emergency communications are a commonly identified vulnerable group across all hazard types. Limited proficiency in official languages can make understanding and following preparedness and emergency instructions difficult, can limit social networks, and make it challenging to complete social assistance forms in an unfamiliar language. Understanding official languages is often required for higher-paying employment opportunities, linking lower language comprehension with poverty and disadvantage.

Source Data For this assessment, we used the percentage of the population who do not have a conversational understanding of English based on the Official Languages statistics from the 2021 Census profiles for the region.

Spatial Distribution There is a very strong spatial distribution for those who do not speak English at a conversational level across the North Shore. Approximately 3.7% of the population in the District of West Vancouver cannot converse in English, which is significantly higher than the national average (1.9%) but more in line with the provincial average (3.3%). This population is concentrated mainly in the northern and western areas of the community around the British Properties and aligns well with first-generation status populations.

Values for this indicator across the District of North Vancouver and the City of North Vancouver are slightly below the national average and significantly below the provincial average at 1.4% and 1.7%, respectively. A slightly above-average cluster spreads outward from the Lonsdale Avenue corridor in Lower and Central Lonsdale in the City and along the northern edge of the District of North Vancouver.


Seniors, Aged 60+

Seniors and the elderly are commonly identified as being at elevated vulnerability for most hazard types and are deemed especially vulnerable to extreme heat impacts. Seniors often have reduced mobility, more commonly experience long-term illness and disability, and many live on limited incomes. According to the 2021 Census, many seniors live in older, substandard housing or long-term assisted living facilities, many of which are ill-suited to addressing the effects of prolonged extreme heat events.

Source Data For this assessment, we used the 2021 Census's percentage of the population aged 60 and older to identify areas of the region with higher senior and elderly populations.

Spatial Distribution Across Canada, seniors aged 60 and older comprise approximately 26.0% of the population; in British Columbia, this number is approximately 27.4%. The District of North Vancouver at 26.5% and the City of North Vancouver at 24.3% align with these averages. The District of West Vancouver is significantly higher than average at 35.7%.

The senior population within the District of West Vancouver is fairly distributed, with a significant concentration in the southeast corner of the community along the Marine Drive corridor from Rodgers Creek and stretching eastward into Squamish Nation's Capilano reserve. Above-average senior populations can also be found on the western side of the community, both north and south of the Trans-Canada Highway.

Smaller pockets can be found throughout the District of North Vancouver and the City of North Vancouver, including Central Lonsdale, Boundary, Kirkstone, Keith Lynn, and Parkgate. These locations are also influenced, at least in part, by historical settlement patterns, housing availability, and related socio-economic factors.


Young Children, Under 5 Years

Very young children are among the most vulnerable groups in our society across all hazard types. They are reliant upon others for care and support, lacking all agency. They cannot take action to reduce their risk or improve their resilience to most dangers presented by natural and human-caused disasters. Their bodies are much less capable of adjusting to the effects of extreme heat, and their internal temperatures can quickly rise to dangerous levels.

Source Data For this assessment, we used the percentage of the population under the age of 5 from the 2021 Census to identify areas of the region with higher populations of very young children.

Spatial Distribution Across Canada, young children under the age of 5 comprise approximately 5.0% of the population and approximately 4.3% provincially in British Columbia. The District of North Vancouver, at 4.3%, and the City of North Vancouver, at 4.2%, are aligned with the provincial average. The District of West Vancouver is significantly lower than both averages, at 2.7%.

The population of very young children is fairly distributed throughout the region, with several small clusters across multiple communities. This likely reflects the nature of housing availability and where most young families are likely to settle within the region. Where families choose to live is influenced by housing availability, affordability, proximity to schools, proximity to one's extended familial and social networks, and other socio-economic factors.


Housing Indicators

Dwellings Built Before 1981

Those living in older dwellings are a commonly identified vulnerable group across most hazard types. Dwellings constructed before 1981 often lack the benefits of more recent building code changes, including air tightness and increased insulation standards. Older structures are much less likely to have integrated air conditioning for their entire dwelling space. While portable and window-mounted air conditioning units may be an option, these are expensive to purchase and operate in poorly insulated and non-airtight structures.

Source Data For this assessment, we used the percentage of dwelling units constructed before 1981 based on construction period statistics contained in the 2021 Census profiles for the region.

Spatial Distribution It should not be surprising that the construction period for dwelling units varies considerably across the North Shore region, as the area has seen considerable growth over the past several decades. Older homes can make up significant portions of established neighbourhoods and are mostly absent in areas of more recent development.

As a result, there is no strong spatial trend for this indicator; housing age tends to correlate with when individual neighbourhoods were developed. Still, many neighbourhoods bordering Lynn Creek and the Seymour River tend to have a larger prevalence of older homes, including Upper Lynn, West Lynn Terrace, Upper West Lynn, Lower West Lynn, Lynnmoor North, and Blueridge.


Overcrowded Households

According to the National Occupancy Standard, overcrowded households are those where the number of residents exceeds the number of bedrooms for the size and composition of the household. Overcrowded housing can directly affect residents' health and well-being. Overcrowded households are commonly identified as a vulnerable group across most hazard types, and a high percentage of non-suitable housing in a neighbourhood speaks to elevated housing needs in the area.

Source Data For this assessment, we used the percentage of private households deemed unsuitable for the number of residents based on housing statistics from the 2021 Census profiles for the region.

Spatial Distribution Overcrowded or non-suitable housing is higher than the national average (5.4%) in the City of North Vancouver (8.6%) but slightly below the national average in the Districts of North Vancouver (4.0%) and West Vancouver (4.2%). Individual census dissemination areas across the region vary from 0% to 33%.

Within the City of North Vancouver, a cluster exists spreading outward along the Lonsdale Avenue corridor with a second adjacent to Marine Drive in the community's southwest.

Central and southeast sections of the District of West Vancouver show above-average and elevated values for overcrowded housing.

Clusters of above-average and elevated values for overcrowded households can also be found across much of the District of North Vancouver.


Renter Households

Renters are a commonly identified vulnerable group for most hazards. Renters face lower housing security and are vulnerable to eviction under various conditions outside their control. Renters have little to no power to advocate for retrofitting their homes for energy efficiency, climate adaptation, or general disaster resilience. Landlords often defer necessary maintenance to reduce costs or increase profits from rental properties and may enforce limits on climate controls and air conditioning within units. These factors combine to place renter households at higher risk during extreme heat events.

Source Data For this assessment, we used the percentage of rental dwellings from the home tenure statistics from the 2021 Census profiles for the region.

Spatial Distribution Housing tenure has high spatial variability across the North Shore region. Renters comprise approximately 46.7% of households in the City of North Vancouver, significantly higher than the national average of 33.1%. The Districts of North Vancouver and West Vancouver are lower than the national average at 23.6% and 29.1%, respectively.

While renters are located throughout the region, there are clusters worthy of mention. The largest is along the Lonsdale Avenue corridor in the City of North Vancouver, encompassing Lower and Central Lonsdale. A slight offshoot of this includes areas along 2nd Street from Forbes Avenue east to St. Davids Avenue.

A second cluster is located near Marine Drive in the southeast corner of the District of West Vancouver and into the Lions Gate and Lower Capilano Marine areas.

Finally, the area surrounding Maplewood in the District of North Vancouver also has a high percentage of renters.


Subsidized Housing

Subsidized housing refers to whether a renter lives in a dwelling supported through income-adjusted rent, social housing, public housing, government-assisted housing, First Nation-provided housing, non-profit housing, rent supplements, or housing allowances. Those living in subsidized housing may have little to no power to advocate for retrofitting their homes for energy efficiency, climate adaptation, or general disaster resilience. They may also experience deferred maintenance, and owners may enforce limits on climate controls within units, further increasing extreme heat vulnerability.

Source Data For this assessment, we combined the percentage of tenant households in subsidized housing and dwelling units provided by "local governments, First Nation, or Indian Band" from the housing statistics of the 2021 Census.

Spatial Distribution The prevalence of subsidized housing across the North Shore is about or slightly below the national average. Most subsidized housing is concentrated in a small number of neighbourhoods spread across the region, resulting in a skewed distribution (see figure below). This trend is fairly common nationally and correlates strongly with how subsidized housing programs are implemented within each community.

Subsidized Housing across the North Shore (shown as the percentage of dwelling units) is strongly skewed, with a majority of neighbourhoods reporting zero subsidized housing.

The vast majority (84%) of neighbourhoods across the North Shore have little to no subsidized housing. Of the 44 census dissemination areas in the region containing subsidized housing, percentages range from 4% to over 82% of total dwelling units.

Hiy̓ám̓ ta Sḵwx̱wú7mesh Housing Society is a not-for-profit with a mandate to build and manage affordable housing for Squamish Nation members. Additional hotspots include Kiwanis Garden Village, several blocks near West Vancouver's Municipal Hall, the area around the Parkgate Village shopping centre area, and Horseshoe Bay.


Natural & Built Environment Indicators

Neighbourhood Tree Canopy Cover

Trees provide a range of ecosystem services to surrounding areas, including shading and cooling. These effects can help mitigate the urban heat island effect while improving human health and well-being. A healthy tree canopy is a considerable tool to help increase a neighbourhood's extreme heat resilience. More industrial neighbourhoods and areas around major roadways tend to have lower tree canopy than low-density residential neighbourhoods.

Some concern has been expressed that increasing temperatures and drought conditions related to global climate change may impact several species of trees currently used to provide canopy cover across the Lower Mainland. As a result, despite protective measures, tree canopy cover may begin to decline across the region if measures are not taken to counter this trend.

Note: This indicator is inverted from most others as higher canopy cover percentages convert to lower overall vulnerability. As a result, areas with higher tree canopy cover are shown in yellow and light orange and areas with lower cover are shown in dark orange and red.

Source Data We rely on the  2020 Regional Tree Canopy Cover and Impervious Surface  data developed by Metro Vancouver which is reported at the census dissemination area scale.

Spatial Distribution

Tree canopy cover across the North Shore is generally higher in low density residential neighbourhoods and lower in industrial and high density mixed-use neighbourhoods. Areas of especially low tree canopy cover include ports and shipyards, rail yards, and industrial properties along Vancouver Harbour.

It is important to note that these values are averaged across a census dissemination area (DA), and it is not uncommon for a single DA to include a mix of different land use types and densities.

In the District of West Vancouver, the neighbourhoods along the shore abutting Burrard Inlet show below-average levels of tree canopy. In the City of North Vancouver and the District of North Vancouver, areas along Vancouver Harbour are prominent for their lack of canopy cover. Above-average areas also spread outward from the Lonsdale Corridor from Lower Lonsdale to Upper Lonsdale.


Neighbourhood Impervious Surface Cover

Impervious surfaces, such as concrete and asphalt, allow very little or no water to pass through. Impervious surfaces, including major roadways, parking lots, and large structures, absorb and re-release more solar radiation than vegetated areas, increasing the temperatures in surrounding areas. This heat island effect makes neighbourhoods surrounding large areas of impervious surfaces more vulnerable to extreme heat. In contrast, areas further from these surfaces are generally cooler and more climate resilient.

Source Data We rely on the  2020 Regional Tree Canopy Cover and Impervious Surface  data developed by Metro Vancouver which is reported at the census dissemination area scale. This layer uses a weighted process to assess impervious suface cover based on land cover.

Spatial Distribution Impervious surface cover is generally higher in the more urbanized centre of the City of North Vancouver than in the other municipalities in the region. Impervious surfaces across the City are concentrated most strongly within a few blocks of the waterfront and northward along Lonsdale Avenue. This area includes local shipyards, rail yards, industrial properties, and high-density mixed-use structures.

In the District of North Vancouver, there are concentrated areas of impervious surfaces along Vancouver Harbour's waterfront, parts of the Capilano and Highlands neighbourhoods, and several communities along Lynn Valley Road.

In West Vancouver, there is generally above-average impervious surface cover along the southeast edge of the community along the shore front.


Median Proximity to Parks, Forests, & Open Spaces

Parks, forests, and open spaces provide range of ecosystem services to surrounding areas, including shading and cooling that help mitigate the urban heat island effect while improving human physical and mental health and well-being. These effects can help make nearby neighbourhoods cooler and more resilient to the effects of extreme heat.

Source Data For this indicator, we measured the straight-line (Euclidean) distance for each building in our dataset to its nearest designated park, forest, or open space using data from our municipal and First Nations partners. At the neighbourhood scale, we used the median distance for all structures within a given census dissemination area (DA), meaning that half of structures within the DA would be closer and half farther than this value. The shape and orientation of dissemination areas and the location of structures within each DA can influence the score at the neighbourhood scale.

Spatial Distribution There are clear spatial patterns of where parks are located within municipalities, and forested areas are most common along the northern edges of municipalities and near major rivers, streams, and creeks across the North Shore.

Within the District of West Vancouver, neighbourhoods south of the Trans-Canada highway are generally furthest from park space compared to those north of the highway. The area surrounding the British Properties generally shows lower access to parks; however, the forested area around Hollyburn Country Club should help reduce this effect in these areas.

There are clusters of below-average access to parks across parts of Central and Lower Lonsdale off Lonsdale Avenue and north of the Trans-Canada Highway within the City of North Vancouver.

Finally, there is very low access to park space from the waterfront area near the Squamish Nation's Mission and Seymour reserve lands, though much of this space is industrial.


Median Proximity to Natural Waterbodies

Large waterbodies like oceans and lakes, as well as moving waters like rivers, streams, and creeks, can help to absorb heat and reduce local temperatures in surrounding areas, helping to mitigate the urban heat island effect. These effects can help make nearby neighbourhoods cooler and more resilient to the effects of extreme heat while improving human physical and mental health and well-being.

Source Data For this indicator, we measured the straight-line (Euclidean) distance for each building in our dataset to its nearest major natural water source using data from our municipal and First Nations partners. At the neighbourhood scale, we used the median distance for all structures within a given census dissemination area (DA), meaning that half of structures within the DA would be closer and half farther than this value. The shape and orientation of dissemination areas and the location of structures within each DA can influence the score at the neighbourhood scale.

Spatial Distribution There are two primary clusters with below average access to water across the North Shore, with several smaller pockets of average to below average proximity scattered throughout the region.

Unsurprisingly, most northern neighbourhoods in the Districts of West Vancouver and North Vancouver are further than average from major water sources, particularly areas north of the Trans-Canada highway and the southwest corner of the Cypress Hills Estates.

In the City of North Vancouver, there is a significant cluster with very low water access in the northeast quadrant, stretching into the District of North Vancouver. The neighbourhoods surrounding McCartney Woods also have below-average proximity to water.


Median Proximity to Cooling Facilities

Cooling facilities provide residents and visitors with air-conditioned or other cooling environments, helping to reduce heat exposure and prevent potential negative health outcomes. Residents are usually unlikely to walk more than 15 minutes ( Fraser et al., 2017 ;  Nayak et al., 2019 ) to reach a cooling facility. When walking slowly, this equates to approximately 0.8 km or about ten city blocks distance.

Thirty-two cooling facilities are located across the North Shore region (  NSEM, 2023  ). These include indoor facilities with air conditioning, such as libraries, recreation centres, community centres, and shopping centres; and outdoor cooling facilities, such as pools, splash pads, and spray parks. Fifteen facilities are located in the District of North Vancouver, nine in the District of West Vancouver, and eight in the City of North Vancouver.

For this indicator, we measured the distance for each building in our dataset to its nearest cooling centre along roads and sidewalks to simulate walking and driving distances. At the neighbourhood scale, we used the median distance for all structures within a given census dissemination area (DA), meaning that half of the structures within the DA would be closer and half farther than this value. The shape and orientation of dissemination areas and the location of structures within each DA can influence the score at the neighbourhood scale.

Source Data NSEM provided a link to a map containing 19 official cooling centres, supplemented by points for Park Royal Mall, Capilano Mall, and Lynn Valley Centre. Based on feedback during engagement meetings, the Lynn Valley Community Recreation Centre was added to bring the total number of cooling facilities to 23.

Spatial Distribution Cooling facilities tend to be in centralized locations and recreation spaces across the North Shore, with a tendency towards the southern and central portions of the region.

Access is most limited along the northern and western areas of the District of West Vancouver, with pockets of above-average to very high travel times along the northern and eastern edges of the District of North Vancouver.


Vulnerability Themes

Vulnerability themes combine multiple vulnerability indicators into a single value for each neighbourhood based on statistical commonalities and spatial distributions. Such theme maps can help to identify where related indicators overlap at the neighbourhood scale and identify "hot spots" of vulnerability. Each theme helps identify some potential "drivers" of neighbourhood vulnerability. It is, therefore, not unusual to see a given neighbourhood appear as a hot spot for one theme and a cold spot for another due to the differing sources of vulnerability within that community.

Four extreme heat vulnerability themes were identified for the North Shore region:

  1. Newcomers & economically vulnerable populations,
  2. Traditionally vulnerable populations,
  3. Seniors and adults living alone, and
  4. Seniors living in their own homes.

The theme maps show hot spots of elevated vulnerability across each theme in pink and red, while areas of greater resilience are shown in shades of blue. Neighbourhoods close to the regional average are shown in light grey.

A slightly different colour scheme is used to denote areas of higher vulnerability for a theme in pink and red and higher resilience within that theme in shades of blue. Areas close the regional average are shown in light grey.

It is important to note that theme maps do not:

  • Imply that everyone living in a zone of higher vulnerability is vulnerable to the effects of extreme heat, or
  • Imply that everyone living in a zone of higher resilience is resilient to the effects of extreme heat.

Instead, these maps should be interpreted as showing where, across the region, particular drivers of extreme heat vulnerability are most prominent and comparing how different drivers affect local vulnerability and resilience to extreme heat.

Newcomers & Economically Vulnerable Populations

The first theme focuses on those areas of the North Shore Region with overlapping populations of newcomers to Canada and economically vulnerable populations.

Specific indicators include first-generation Canadians, those with little to no English language proficiency, households with high shelter costs, and low-income households.

Given language barriers, many in this group may rely heavily on their extended social networks for information and support during extreme heat events. Others may lack the financial capacity to counter the impacts of extreme heat. Risk can increase as the degree of overlap between these groups increases.

Programs to increase resilience for neighbourhoods identified in this theme can include targeted information and education programs in additional languages, assistance acquiring air conditioner units, and assistance learning about and travelling to nearby cooling spaces.


Traditionally Vulnerable Populations

This theme focuses on those areas of the North Shore Region with overlapping populations of groups traditionally identified as hazards-vulnerable due to social, financial, or housing stress or insecurity.

This includes individuals and families living in subsidized housing, lone-parent households, adults without a high school diploma (or equivalent), and those who self-identify as Indigenous.

These groups often face historical and systemic inequalities in education, employment, and income, which can worsen during prolonged extreme heat events. As the degree of overlap between these groups increases, extreme heat risk may increase.

Programs designed to assist traditionally vulnerable groups can help to counter this risk and potentially increase resilience. These include targeted extreme heat education, assistance acquiring air conditioner units, assistance learning about and accessing cooling spaces, and short-term childcare in cooling facilities.

Many of our Indigenous contributors noted that the First Nations communities across the North Shore had some of the best outcomes during the 2021 Heat Dome. These communities developed strong initiatives to ensure the health and safety of members during the event, including check-ins with vulnerable members and elders and purchasing and distributing air conditioning units to member households. In this light, Indigenous identity could instead be seen as a measure of resilience rather than vulnerability within these communities.


Seniors and Adults Living Alone

This theme focuses on those areas of the North Shore Region with overlapping populations of seniors (aged 60+) and adults who live alone.

The  BC Coroners' Service report  assessing the 2021 Heat Dome specifically identifies seniors and those who live alone as vulnerable populations that should be considered for future extreme heat planning.

Adults who live alone tend to be more socially isolated and financially restricted and often rely heavily on an extended social network for information and support during extreme heat events.

Seniors may have more limited mobility and often experience higher rates of long-term illness and disability that can be exacerbated by extreme heat, placing them at elevated risk during prolonged extreme heat events. Language and technological barriers can make it difficult for many seniors to learn about imminent extreme heat events and what they can do to stay safe during such events. Limited incomes may mean they cannot take necessary actions to reduce their risk.

Programs to increase resilience for neighbourhoods identified in this theme can include targeted information aimed at helping seniors and adults who live alone with education about the warning signs of extreme heat illness, assistance learning about and travelling to nearby cooling spaces, and assistance acquiring air conditioning units for their dwellings.


Seniors Living in Their Own Homes

In addition to the limitations that seniors face described in the previous theme, those who own their own homes face the additional challenges of any homeowner to maintain and manage their homes and properties.

This is particularly true for older homes that may lack the benefits of significant building code advances, including air tightness, increased insulation, and wider availability of central cooling and air conditioning. As a result, seniors living in older homes during periods of prolonged extreme heat may experience elevated temperatures, placing them at elevated risk.

Community programs to check in on older homeowners, volunteer programs to assist older residents with day-to-day household and yard maintenance tasks, assistance learning about and travelling to nearby cooling spaces, and assistance acquiring air conditioning units can all help build resilience and reduce risk for those who fall within this theme.


Overall Vulnerability

The overall vulnerability map seeks to provide a single weighted extreme heat vulnerability score for each neighbourhood across the North Shore, incorporating information from all of the vulnerability indicators based on their statistical contributions.

This map helps identify areas where multiple drivers contribute to extreme heat vulnerability or resilience. As with the theme maps, hot spots of elevated vulnerability are shown in pink and red, while areas of greater resilience are shown in shades of blue.

Those neighbourhoods shown in pink and red have likely scored high in at least one vulnerability theme and often across multiple themes. These areas are most vulnerable to extreme heat and are where policy and planning interventions will likely have the greatest impacts.

More resilient neighbourhoods are identified in shades of blue. These are areas that can be explored to see if there are lessons that can be applied to more vulnerable communities to help increase overall community heat resilience.

The table below shows how each vulnerability theme contributes to the overall vulnerability map. These themes account for an estimated 63% of extreme heat vulnerability across the North Shore. Health- and disability-related data can reasonably be expected to contribute a significant portion of the remaining 37%, but this data was not available due to privacy concerns at the neighbourhood scale.

Extreme Heat Vulnerability Theme

Contribution Weight

Newcomers & Economically Vulnerable Populations

40.6%

Traditionally Vulnerable Populations

24.8%

Seniors & Adults Living Alone

20.0%

Seniors Living in Their Own Homes

14.6%

Table showing the contribution weights for each of the four identified theme maps to the overall neighbourhood vulnerability scores for the North Shore


Extreme Heat Exposure

Several factors can increase or decrease local temperatures within neighbourhoods compared to surrounding areas. Aspects of both the built and natural environments can result in micro-zones and heavily influence the impacts that extreme heat events can have within these zones.

The ' urban heat island ' effect occurs when natural spaces and vegetation are replaced with high concentrations of concrete, asphalt, and other 'impervious' surfaces that absorb and retain heat, which is then released into surrounding areas over time.

A schematic showing how solar energy heats building materials such as concrete and asphalt which then re-radiates the heat back into the local environment, resulting in warmer local temperatures.

Image Source:  ISGlobal  (2023)

As a result, areas with high tree canopy cover and access to nearby water, parks, and open spaces tend to be cooler than neighbourhoods with less vegetation and cover, such as in core urban areas.

Neighbourhoods with elevated heat exposure tend to experience higher energy costs, increased pollution, and heat-related illness and mortality during extreme heat events.

Since high-resolution neighbourhood-scale historical temperature data was not available, we used five factors to help establish heat exposure scores across the North Shore region:

Eco-Health Indicators

  • The percentage of neighbourhood tree canopy cover, and
  • The percentage of neighbourhood impervious surface cover.

Proximity Indicators

We used a geospatial analysis for each structure in our dataset to determine the median distances to each of the following feature types using straight-line (i.e., Euclidean) distance:

  • Natural waterbody features:
    • Oceans,
    • Rivers,
    • Lakes,
    • Ponds,
    • Streams, and
    • Creeks.
  • Parks and open features:
    • Public parks, recreational spaces,
    • Public open spaces, and
    • Forested areas.

Exposure & Cooling Facilities

Cooling facilities provide residents and visitors with air-conditioned or other cooling environments, helping to reduce heat exposure and prevent potential negative health outcomes.

When this map was created, 32 cooling facilities were located across the North Shore region (  NSEM, 2023  ). These include indoor facilities with air conditioning like libraries, recreation centres, community centres, and shopping centres, and outdoor cooling facilities can include pools, splash pads, and spray parks.

Note: Click the 'Expand' icon in the top-right corner of the map to explore cooling facility locations in more detail.

Exposure vs. Vulnerability

The final map of our story combines the extreme heat exposure and overall vulnerability scores to help identify neighbourhoods across the North Shore where high exposure and vulnerability overlap most strongly.

For this we use a bi-variate map to map each variable with a different colour scheme. For the purposes of this map, areas are deemed to be 'High' if they have above average or very high scores (i.e., standard scores ≥ +0.5) and 'Low' if they are below this threshold.

Bi-variate map legend shows a coloured grid indicating values where extreme heat vulnerability and exposure are respectively high or low.

Legend for the bi-variate extreme heat exposure vs. vulnerability map.

Lightly shaded areas have low scores for both variables. While residents in these neighbourhoods may still be vulnerable to extreme heat, their scores are average or below average overall.

The areas shown in orange have high exposure and low vulnerability scores. These are areas where measures taken to reduce overall exposure within the built and natural environments can help to reduce energy costs and pollution and help reinforce neighbourhood resilience.

The areas shown in blue have low exposure and high vulnerability scores. These are areas where education, policy adjustments, and community outreach can help reduce the social, economic, and housing stressors that may be increasing local vulnerabilities.

Finally, the areas shown in brown score high for both exposure and vulnerability. These are the neighbourhoods most susceptible to the effects of extreme and prolonged heat events and where urgent interventions should be considered.

Use the 'Expand' icon in the top corner of the map to explore these neighbourhoods further.


Conclusion

There is a strong spatial component to extreme heat exposure and vulnerability across the North Shore region. Many different factors influence individual and household vulnerability to extreme heat events and we showed how several different elements combine to drive vulnerability for the region across four major themes.

Knowing where vulnerable populations are concentrated and what factors contribute to neighbourhood-scale risk can help policymakers and planners identify potential programs, partners, and protocols to help reduce vulnerability and increase extreme heat resilience throughout the North Shore. Areas of higher resilience may offer lessons and best practices. Emergency managers and planners can use this information to develop extreme heat management strategies, pre-position goods and people, and identify where their services will likely be in most significant demand in future extreme heat events.

The complete risk assessment being completed as part of this project dives deeper into these questions, provides additional context related to health and disability, identifies potential gaps, and explores cooperative strategies our municipal and First Nations partners can employ to help build a more resilient North Shore.

Thank-you to all who have participated in our outreach and engagement meetings throughout the project. We look forward to sharing the final results and datasets with you soon!

Standard scores measure the number of standard deviations a neighbourhood value is from the regional average or 'mean.' Larger positive values are more vulnerable, while larger negative values are more resilient to extreme heat.

Neighbourhoods are coloured based on how far they vary in standard deviations from the regional mean (average) for each indicator.

Indigenous Identity across the North Shore (shown as a percentage of the total population) is strongly skewed, with a few very high values and a majority of very low values.

Subsidized Housing across the North Shore (shown as the percentage of dwelling units) is strongly skewed, with a majority of neighbourhoods reporting zero subsidized housing.

A slightly different colour scheme is used to denote areas of higher vulnerability for a theme in pink and red and higher resilience within that theme in shades of blue. Areas close the regional average are shown in light grey.

Image Source:  ISGlobal  (2023)

Legend for the bi-variate extreme heat exposure vs. vulnerability map.