2022 Year in Review

 In early February 2022, the Mid-South experienced one of its most catastrophic ice storms on record. Thousands of citizens across the Mid-South were without power for up to a week in frigid, sub-freezing temperatures, making for a dangerously cold aftermath. The Memphis Light Gas and Water (MLGW) Division estimated that 240,000 people were affected by power outages in the Memphis area alone.

In Shelby County alone, Memphis Light, Gas, and Water estimates the ice storm caused $12 million in damage to the utility’s electric power system.

On Wednesday, 02 Feb 2022, a strong low-pressure system and associated cold front trekked across the Ohio River Valley. Ahead of the front, widespread rain showers saturated the Mid-South Wednesday afternoon as the system progressed across the central US. Then overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning, the arctic airmass behind the front plunged the surface temperature to sub-freezing while rain was still ongoing. This created a classic setup for freezing rain, where the precipitation falls as liquid but freezes upon contact at the surface. As time went on Thursday morning, the rain became lighter and thus more easily accrued onto trees, power lines, and roads. The lighter the freezing rain, the easier it sticks to solid surfaces.

Several days prior to the winter storm, models and medium-range forecasts started pointing to an ice event for the Mid-South. Our first social media post from NWS Memphis about the potential for a midweek winter weather event was on Sunday, 30 Jan 2022. With forecast uncertainty as high as it frequently is for a winter storm more than three days out, we like to use the experimental “Winter Storm Severity Index'' graphic to highlight the potential for impacts rather than getting bogged down by numbers and forecast amounts. By Monday, 31 Jan 2022, the first Winter Storm Watches were put out for Wednesday/Thursday after collaborating with surrounding offices NWS Little Rock, AR and NWS Paducah, KY. At this point, all signals were pointing more to freezing rain and sleet, and less to snow. We also posted the first estimation of ice accumulations, with the highest amounts of up to one-half of an inch (0.5”) near the Missouri Bootheel. From this point forward, we made sure to highlight the headline that this would primarily be an ice event. 

As the week progressed, high-resolution models all came into agreement that we could have significant impacts from the ice event later in the week. Along with updated forecast amounts and active watches and warnings, we started posting ice storm safety infographics like this Tweet from early Tuesday morning (01 Feb 2022) to help our audience prepare for the event. The Mid-South sees a variety of weather phenomena, but ice storms are particularly dangerous and it is a crucial part of our mission to keep everyone informed on what they can expect and how they can prepare. We posted graphics on the science behind freezing rain, what kind of hazards it can cause, why ice is so dangerous, and how people can prepare for it.

After the freezing rain ended Thursday afternoon, countless trees and power lines were left coated in a solid layer of ice. We had reports of three-quarters of an inch (0.75") of ice in eastern AR, and closer to one-half of an inch (0.5”) here in Memphis. The added weight from the ice alone would have been enough to cause power outages, but we also had brisk northerly winds of up to 30 mph behind the cold front on Thursday that added to the danger of falling trees and power lines. Downed trees on power lines and collapsed utility poles created widespread power outages across the Mid-South, especially here in Memphis. Temperatures barely reached freezing for almost three days after the ice storm had ended, creating an ongoing challenge for those without power to stay warm in their homes. It also kept the layer of ice frozen solid for several days, delaying utility companies from deploying their crews to begin power restoration efforts. 

At our weather forecast office here in Memphis, almost all forecasters lost power at some point during the ice storm. Even the building in which our office is located lost power for over 24 hours. This obviously presented challenges for us as we had to rely on generator power, lost internet, and had very limited communications during the power outage. NWS Memphis operations were restricted to the bare minimum for a brief period following the storm, but we were able to continue providing our routine forecasts and decision support services with little to no interruptions during the outage thanks to generator power. 

The February 2022 ice storm certainly proved to be an unforgettable event for everyone across the Mid-South. It was challenging for NWS Memphis forecasters in many ways, from messaging the potential impacts days in advance to gathering reports of ice amounts in the days following the event. We appreciate the hard work that MLGW crews put into restoring power around the clock post-storm. The collaboration and efforts between meteorologists, emergency managers, and power crews to keep the Mid-South safe and informed throughout such a historic ice storm do not go unnoticed.

After a near record-breaking Summer of intense heat and oppressive humidity, September rolled in. September is notorious as the driest month in the Mid-South, averaging 3 inches of rainfall.

Several Cold fronts traversed the Mid-South throughout the month. Conditions became quite dry by late in the month as humidity lowered significantly throughout the region. Additionally, the several preceding months of below normal precipitation resulted in dry fuels as we moved into the Fall season. With dry antecedent conditions in place, dry heat and strong winds created favorable wildfire conditions that lasted for 3 consecutive days near the end of the month. In addition to several consecutive Red Flag Warning issuances, much of the forecast area was under burn bans for the entire month, which restricted open outdoor burning for much of the Mid-South.

The extreme cold snap of late December 2022 affected millions of people across the country in the form of power outages, icy roads, and deadly wind chills. An Arctic cold front raced down from northwest Canada and created several types of weather hazards: sub-zero wind chills, blowing snow, and the rare but extremely dangerous flash freeze. A flash freeze happens when the air temperature quickly drops below freezing after a period of rain that coats roads, bridges, and sidewalks in a thin layer of ice, which is exactly what happened with this front. This made for an extremely dangerous few days with a variety of winter impacts across the Mid-South.

About a week prior to the Arctic front’s arrival, confidence increased enough to let our core partners (emergency managers, fire and rescue, broadcast media, etc) know of an impending system that would bring impactful winter weather to the Mid-South around one of the busiest travel holidays of the year. We began giving our core partners regular live briefings about a week before the event. Our CWA covers four states - Tennessee, Mississippi, Arkansas, and Missouri. With these regular partner briefings, the Departments of Transportation from each state were able to get brine and salt trucks out on the roads to treat them several days in advance for ice and snow accumulation. We reiterated to our partners with each update how dangerous the roads could get, and to spread the word advising people to stay off the roads if travel was not absolutely necessary. 

In terms of headlines (Watches, Warnings, and/or Advisories), there was a bit of a disconnect from the northern to southern part of our CWA. North of Interstate 40, we had about an inch of snow accumulation in the forecast, which meets our criteria for a Winter Weather Advisory. However, the flash freezing conditions were expected along and south of I-40, which is an extremely dangerous weather phenomena that did not necessarily meet the criteria of any of our existing products. We juggled the idea of putting out a Special Weather Statement (a product for a hazard that does not necessarily meet warning criteria but still warrants a “heads-up”), but we did not want it to appear like the only danger with this front would be accumulating snow in the northern part of the CWA. As a result, though a little unorthodox, we issued two separate Winter Weather Advisories: one north of I-40 for an inch of snow, and another south of I-40 for flash freezing conditions behind the front. This was intended to treat both hazards with equal caliber in terms of impact severity, while also distinguishing them by the expected type of phenomena. This decision allowed us to unify messaging and further drive home the message that there would be a variety of impacts with this front. 

The strength of the Arctic front alone would have been enough to cause extremely hazardous winter weather conditions, but the depth of the parent low pressure system also led to strong northwest gradient winds behind the front. These gusty northwest winds topped out around 45 mph, which created a sub-zero wind chill when combined with the already frigid Arctic air building in. We issued a Wind Chill Warning for this event, which was the first time that headline had ever been issued at NWS Memphis. Our criteria for a Wind Chill Warning is wind chills at or below -15°F for at least an hour. The negative wind chills were a high priority in our messaging on social media and to our partners because of their extreme, rare, and life threatening nature. After the front passed early in the morning on December 23, the lowest temperature recorded in our forecast area was -4°F with a wind chill of -28°F near Jonesboro, Arkansas. Our lowest temperature here in the Memphis area was -3°F with a wind chill of -21°F, reported from Germantown. Though this cold snap was extreme and quite rare, it surprisingly did not break any records. We had widespread negative temperatures, but there was an even more intense winter storm right around Christmas in 1989 that set minimum temperature records far colder than anything we experienced in December 2022. Regardless, this Arctic front affected millions of people in and around the Mid-South.  

The signal for temperatures below normal at the end of December was incredibly strong even 14 days out. We started our messaging for this extreme cold event over a week in advance of the actual frontal passage, beginning with a generic “cold temperatures possible late next week” headline. As time went on, it became clear that this would become a high impact event, and thus messaging to our core partners and social media ramped up from there. We started to lean more into probabilistic forecasting, presenting both the most likely scenario along with the coldest reasonable temperatures for the holiday weekend. In other words, how cold it was most likely to get versus how cold it could get. With the rarity of a flash freeze in this part of the country, we couldn’t be certain as to how the extremely quick changeover from rain to snow would affect the roads. Out of an abundance of caution, we reiterated multiple times each day prior to the event that travel was NOT advised due to the potential for snow and/or ice on the roads. Social media updates increased exponentially on the day of the frontal passage with driving safety infographics, current observations of the front upstream, cold weather tips and tricks to stay warm, and things of that nature.

The front arrived on the Mid-South’s doorstep on Thursday, December 22, 2022 and plummeted the temperature from 44°F at 4PM CST to a mere 10°F only six hours later at 10PM CST. We had a good idea of the kinds of impacts we’d see just based on live views of roads upstream where the front had already passed. Live traffic cameras in Jonesboro, AR showed extremely dicey travel conditions with slushy roads and blowing snow due to the gusty northwest winds. We spread the word on social media that the front was coming in a matter of hours, and it was not going to be any average cold front. Several warming centers started opening around the area for those without a safe place to take shelter from the cold and we Re-Tweeted every single one that came across our Twitter feed. The evening of the frontal passage, we received several reports of deteriorating travel conditions in the Memphis metropolitan area due to ice, snow accumulation, and blowing snow.

After the front cleared the Mid-South on the evening of December 22, 2022, we had lasting impacts for several days. Notably, temperatures did not climb back above freezing until the following Monday afternoon, more than three days later on December 26. In addition, the Memphis Light Gas and Water (MLGW) Division instituted rolling blackouts under the direction of the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) to mitigate impacts from the massive demand on the power grid. For those affected by the rolling blackouts, staying warm without power in sub-freezing temperatures became a major struggle. Another significant impact in the Memphis area came as a result of frozen pipes: unsafe drinking water. A Boil Water Advisory was issued to all MLGW customers on Christmas Eve, which lasted for five days until December 29. Customers were advised to boil water for cooking, drinking, and brushing teeth. Some areas’ water pressure was greatly reduced, but still others even lost water completely due to frozen and/or damaged pipes. These water issues happened intermittently from the time of the frontal passage until about a week later when restorative efforts took full effect. This had an immense impact on everyone in the Memphis area, especially homes with visitors for the holidays, restaurants, and other businesses unable to remain open without reliable running water to offer their customers. 

The December 2022 extreme cold snap proved to be a high impact event that will be remembered for years to come. Millions of people were affected by this system in some way, whether it was canceled travel plans, power outages, or loss of water. Our team at NWS Memphis is very proud of the internal and external communication and dedication to providing the best service possible to our partners and public for this event. The response from emergency managers and departments of transportation to open warming shelters and treat roads several days in advance no doubt saved lives.