Climate change and Traditional Food Security in Nenqay Deni
Will climate change alter the availability and accessibility of traditional use food sources for Tŝilhqot'in Nations?
Image: Tsilhqot’in community members at Teztan Biny (Fish Lake) (Tsilhqot’in National Government)
This work supports long-term planning for traditional food security by the Tŝilhqot'in National Government. Specifically, this work addresses potential impacts of climate change on the location where plants may grow. We used scientific models to predict the present and future distributions of six plant species: Saskatoon berry, Labrador tea, Mountain potato, Trapper's tea, Soapberry, and Chokecherry. The resulting maps indicate the potential for both positive and negative impacts to traditional use plants in Nenqay Deni. This work is a starting point for food security planning on Tŝilhqot'in Nen.
Examples of traditional foods - Left to right: Saskatoon fieldberry, Labrador tea, and digging for Mountain potato
Tŝilhqot’in National Government Logo
We acknowledge additional work is necessary to validate the distribution patterns evident in the maps. These can be supported through local knowledge, additional data collection, and monitoring efforts to periodicially fine-tune and improve the models used to predict the resulting maps.
Please share any feedback related to this project by contacting Cynthia Fell - Resource Management Coordinator, Tŝilhqot’in Nen: C ynthiafell@tsilhqotin.ca
Ecosystem change assessment for Nenqay Deni
Climate change is expected to shift entire ecosystems. The Biogeoclimatic Ecosystem Classification (BEC) is one useful approach to visualize changing geographic distributions of forested ecosystems in Nenqay Deni. The following maps show predicted change in ecosystem type over the next century.
Climate modelling of biogeoclimate zones from 2011-2100. Data produced by Hamann and Wang.
The changing distribution patterns of ecosystems in these maps highlight two notable areas to support resource management and long-term food security:
Areas of climate refugia: Indicated in green below, these areas represent ecosystems where change is least expected, which can continue to support existing conditions for suitable habitat. Ecosystem protection and monitoring of species populations, genetic diversity, and potential stressors can increase their resilience to future changes
Areas of climate impact: Indicated in red and orange below, these areas represent ecosystems where change is expected to be greatest. Ecosystem restoration efforts and informed management of existing populations would be important.
Degree of potential change to BEC zones for SSP2, RCP 4.5
The general long-term trends indicate:
- Grasslands (e.g. bunchgrass) will expand northward along the river valleys;
- Transitions from sub-boreal pine and spruce forests to Ponderosa pine forests;
- Coastal ecosystems transitioning towards the interior; and
- Tree growth at higher elevations in the mountains with loss of alpine tundra.
Top row: Examples of expanding ecosystems from left to right: Ponderosa pine, Bunch grass, Coastal douglas fir. Bottom row: Examples of contracting ecosystems from left to right: Alpine tundra, Spruce-willow-birch, and sub-boreal spruce.
Altered ecosystems could have cascading effects on local distributions of plants and animals. The Tŝilhqot'in National Government identified six plants species which are important traditional food sources that may be impacted by climate change.
Note: Map visualizations might take some time to load
Communities of the Tŝilhqot'in National Government among distinct biogeoclimatic (BEC) zones.
Saskatoon serviceberry
- Tolerance to environmental stress such as low temperatures and droughts
- Grows in mid- to upper-elevation; hillsides and sloped valleys; dry soils; and found among rock outcrops, gullies, thickets, open forests, lowland edges, and subalpine habitats
- Commonly observed alongside species of Douglas fir, common snowberry, bluebunch wheatgrass, pinegrass, etc.
Mountain potato
- Grows across a wide elevation and slope gradient, though most commonly observed at higher elevations (~1900m) and steeper slopes (~50%). Soil composition ranges from dry to very wet and is observed in both dry, grassy plains (‘steppe’) and high alpine zones.
- Commonly observed alongside long bluebells, Ponderosa pine, big sagebrush, and grouseberry/huckleberry.
Labrador tea
- Grows across a variety of elevation and slope gradients but occurs most frequently at mid-elevations and more flat areas. Its habitat consists of bogs and moist forests within lowland and montane areas.
- They have drought-protective leaves, making them resilient against poor soil nutrition and colder temperatures.
- Commonly observed alongside northern white-cedar, black spruce, and Tamarack species, although presence of Labrador Tea in these regions could indicate unhealthy growing conditions for these tree species
Trapper's tea
- Often found at mid-high elevations (~1500m) and flatter terrain towards the southern range of British Columbia (BC). They grow is moist regions nearby wet meadows, fens, and alongside streams.
- Genetically related to Larbrador Tea and both species share many similar characteristics. (e.g. drough-resistant leaves)
- Other species found alongside Trapper's tea include grouseberry, Utah honeysuckle, white-flowered rhododendron, and heart-leaf arnica.
Soapberry
- Found at mid to higher elevations (averaging ~1000m) at moderately sloping terrain. Soils range from medium to dry and are mostly found lowland (shores, riverbanks), grassy 'steppe' plains, open woods, sub-alpine zones, and occasionally even marshes.
- Can survive in nutrient-poor soils as it can secure its own nitrogen
- Commonly found alongside Douglas fir, tembling aspen, white spruce, Utah honeysuckle, and heart-leaf arnica
Chokecherry
- Found across a range of elevations (average ~800 m) and relatively steep slopes. Prefer medium to dry soils nearby open forests and edges, thickets, bluffs, grassy rock slopes, eroded river edges and streambanks near grasslands, and other dry clearings.
- Low suitability to habitats with poorly drained soils, intense canopy cover and shaded areas.
- Found alongside trembling aspen, white and black spruce, beaked hazel, willows, roses, Redosier dogwood, and Kentucky bluegrass.
Known locations of all six traditional use plants. Note that occurrence records are sparse within Nenqay Deni.
Spatial models were used to predict the distributions of these six plant species which are important to the Tŝilhqot'in First Nations.
These models can be quickly updated if additional location information for food plants are available. Our models predict the current distribution of each plant and the forecasted future distribution of each plant using a ‘middle of the road’ climate change scenario (RCP 4.5) for mid-century (2050s).
Methods summary
- Species observation data: Locations of plant species were compiled from publicly available datasets where occurences were noted
- Environmental data: Data describing local environmental conditions for each plant species were compiled and included average annual temperature, humidity, and elevation
- Modelling:
- Current distribution: Plant species observation data and environmental data were modelled to predict habitat suitability
- Future distribution: Climate models were used to predict future environmental conditions that may affect plant growth in the mid-century and late-century
Results from the mid-century models are presented below. For more information on the late century models (Factsheet 2: Plant Distribution Change), and a detailed overview of the methodology (Appendix A: Factsheet ), please contact TNG (details below).
Use the slider arrows to toggle between predicted current and predicted future conditions for each species below:
- Red colours indicate poor predicted habitat quality for the plant;
- Yellow colours indicate moderate predicted habitat quality;
- Green colours indicate high predicted habitat quality.
Note: Map visualizations might take some time to load
Our models predict that Saskatoon serviceberry habitat suitability will improve, especially in mid elevations. Over time, however, low elevation regions in river valleys may become unsuitable in parts of Nenqay Deni.
Our models predict that Mountain potato habitat suitability will improve especially in the river valleys and western regions of Nenqay Deni. Habitat quality is expected to improve in lower elevations but may be lost at higher elevations.
Our models predict that Labrador tea habitat suitability will decline, especially at mid-elevations.
Our models predict that Trapper’s tea habitat suitability will remain much the same.
Our models predict that Soapberry habitat suitability will remain much the same, with slight improvements in the northern regions of Nenqay Deni.
Our models predict that Chokecherry habitat suitability will improve, especially at mid-range elevations.
ESSA Technologies completed this work for the Tŝilhqot'in National Government in 2022. We prepared multiple factsheets, including a summary of technical methods used for modelling and map creation.
Copies of these factsheets can be requested from TNG below. We are also interested in receiving feedback on the accuracy of these maps for representing the current distributions of traditional foods in the region. Please send your feedback to Cynthia Fell, Resource Management Coordinator Tŝilhqot’in Nen < cynthiafell@tsilhqotin.ca >.
