Sea Level Rise in Miami
Sea Level Rise Timelapse
Since 1880, the Earth's average sea level has risen 8–9 inches (21–24 centimeters). With over 100 million people living in coastal regions —which are vulnerable to flooding, shoreline erosion, extreme weather like hurricanes, and more—sea level rise threatens the health of our communities.
If large amounts of greenhouse gasses continue to be emitted into the atmosphere and global warming worsens, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) projects that, at an intermediate level, the global sea level will rise by 3.3 feet (1 meter) and the average temperature will be 9°F (5°C) warmer by 2100. Sea level rise may be higher if emissions continue to worsen along with other climate change impacts. NOAA has projected sea level rise as high as 4.9 feet (1.5 meters) and 6.6 feet (2.0 meters) by 2100.
Below shows the U.S. Coastal Inundation from Sea Level Rise for each decade from 2004 to 2144 based on NOAA projections.
U.S. Coastal Inundation from Sea Level Rise in Miami (NOAA, NASA, EPA, USGS, FEMA, ACOE, USDOD, Esri, ArcGIS Living Atlas)
Using data analysis tools in ArcGIS Pro and NOAA projections of sea level rise at an intermediate level, we found that by 2090, there will be 11.4% more land submerged below sea level in Miami-Dade County compared to 2020. According to NOAA , the average sea level along U.S. coasts is expected to increase in the next 30 years (2020–2050) by 10–12 inches (25–30 centimeters). This 30-year increase is the same as how much the sea level has risen in the past 100 years from 1920–2020.
The map below shows the area below sea level as of 2020 (left) compared with the area below sea level by 2090.
Predicted Flooding by 2100
With sea level rise, coastal communities become increasingly at risk of flooding. Scroll through the following maps from the Climate Central - Coastal Risk Screening Tool showing projected medium sea level rise & annual flood by 2100 based on Leading Consensus (IPCC 2021) with different levels of action taken to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
Unchecked pollution: Expecting 7.9°F (4.4°C) of warming above pre-industrial levels by 2100
Current trajectory: Expecting 6.5°F (3.6°C) of warming above pre-industrial levels by 2100
Moderate cuts in emissions: Expecting 4.9°F (2.7°C) of warming above pre-industrial levels by 2100
Deep and rapid cuts in emissions: Keeping global warming below 3.5°F (2°C)
According to NOAA , if we fail to reduce future greenhouse gas emissions, we may see 1.5–5 feet (0.5–1.5 meters) more sea level rise by 2100.
Left's compare the first and last maps: unchecked pollution (left) vs. deep and rapid reductions in emissions (right).
Discussion
Climate change is a large and complex issue that requires thoughtful and collaborative action. Data provides a powerful tool to help us better understand climate change, its impacts on communities, and how actions contribute to the problem. By leveraging data and working with local communities and decision-makers, we can contribute to sustainable solutions.
