SOUTH CENTRAL REGION

KANSAS HOUSING ASSESSMENT

RDG Planning & Design

February 1, 2022

*Source: U.S. Census Bureau; *2020 age data not available at the time of this study*

*Source: American Community Survey (5-year estimates)*

*Source: National Housing Conference, Paycheck to Paycheck, https://nhc.org/paycheck-to-paycheck/*

*Source: Center for Neighborhood Technology; American Community Survey (5-Year Estimates)*

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The Demand for Housing in South Central Kansas

A GUIDE TO FORECASTING HOUSING NEEDS

A traditional population projection that translates population growth based on historical trends to housing unit demand does not apply to many parts of Kansas. The population in many counties has declined over the past several decades, which under a traditional projection model, would indicate little to no need for new housing units. However, listening sessions and the community surveys show the opposite is true. Community engagement suggests a need for housing variety and supply. Data from the Kansas Department of Labor also indicates strong current job opportunities and projected regional job growth.

For these reasons, population growth and housing needs hinge on new regional and local employees who need to live in the region. Counties losing population cannot expect significant population growth in the short term. Population stabilization and growth through strategic housing and community actions are feasible.

Using data from the Kansas Department of Labor, the Census, and commuting patterns help demonstrate housing demand for the region through the next several years. Factors included in the forecast:
Regional employment projections. A portion of new jobs in the coming year can and will be filled by people who live in each region.
Job openings from retirements. A portion of residents in the region will retire in the coming years. Jobs that new retirees previously occupied will open for new employees, but a housing unit will not.
Natural population changes. The population is aging in most regions and will decline over time without an in-migration of residents or significant change in birth rates. The Southwest region is projected to have natural population growth.
Replacement need. A portion of homes will require demolition in the coming years. Other houses will be lost from accidents such as fires or neglect across each region.
Other assumptions. The full methodology with population forecasts and housing price points are included in the appendix of this housing assessment.

HOUSING DEMAND FORECAST - 2028

The housing forecast is based on the above assumptions. About 719-878 units are needed in the SC region annually for regional demand. This is above the estimated 546 average annual units built from 2010-2019*.

Housing Demand Forecast - South Central Region - 2019-2028

As indicated throughout the study, a forecast does not tell the whole story. In addition to adequate housing options, investments in adequate community amenities need to be made to retain workers in the region. Otherwise they will choose to live elsewhere.

Housing Opportunities & Challenges for the South Central Region

The following opportunities and challenges are based on the market analysis, surveys, and regional listening sessions.

Housing Stock

While the smallest communities have lower housing conditions, overall communities boast a stable, quality housing stock.

Strong Job Market

Many employers express the need for workers. A strong job market promotes growth through increased employment opportunities, increased property tax base, and generally stable wages. The South Central region benefits from its proximity to Wichita. However, as seen since 2010, job growth does not guarantee population growth. If housing is unavailable or is low-quality, households will choose to live elsewhere. Housing is important to translate job opportunities with population growth.

Builder Barriers

Construction costs are high across the area not just from material costs, but the costs for builders to travel from larger markets like Wichita. Many larger builders will not consider cities in the region without assistance like RHID.

Housing for Elderly and Disabled

Options are secluded to the larger cities like McPherson, if at all. In addition, using Section 8 vouchers is difficult in some counties.

Lack of Housing Variety

Other than single-family detached homes, the only other options built in recent years are multi-story apartments. These are not ideal for everyone, like families who need to rent.

Housing Demand

Housing demand is being driven by:

A very strong job market in several of the counties. Thousands of unfilled jobs exist in the region and in the Wichita area. Employees to fill these jobs will need quality housing that meets their stage of life.
The need to replace older units that are no longer meeting residents’ needs. This is especially true in the more rural counties.
Greater housing diversity that meets the needs of an aging population.

Competition with Urban Areas and Other States

Being on the border of Oklahoma and Wichita, there is competition for builders, incentives, and supportive policy. The South Central region is affected by this competition and is not attracting as much interest from these outside developers and builders.