A Tale of Two Droughts

A Look at the 1973/1974 and 1984 Droughts and their impacts in Ethiopia


  • Drought is a recurrent global climatic phenomenon.
  • No universal definition for drought or consensus regarding the factors that contribute to it.
  • Proximal causes: oceanic and atmospheric processes, geography, and human activity.
  • Human activity can compound a drought, increasing vulnerability and leading to crisis.


    Landlocked countries in the Horn of Africa

    115 million people (2020)

    11 federal regional states, Oromo being the most populous

    2 administrative states

    Currently engaged in a civil war


    1973/1974 & 1984 Drought: Proximate Causes

    ITCZ

      Dual Rainy Season

    Decline in overall precipitation

    Universally understood to be the cause of drought

    • Sited as the driver behind the 1973/1974 and 1984 drought


    ENSO - La Niña - causes drier than average conditions in the long rainy season

    Agriculture is rainfed and depends on the long rainy season

    Relationship between rainfall shortage and food production


    Population Increase

    • Increase demand on natural resources: land, water, trees, etc.
    • Natural resources provide the material inputs for important goods: food, wood for buildings, etc.
    • Leads to environmental degradation: deforestation, soil degradation, etc.
    • Climate change


    Rainfall was one of many drivers of drought

    The drought escalated into a crisis for political, economic and social reasons

    These factors increased vulnerability to drought among certain groups

    Climate, geography, and the political economy worked together to create the conditions for drought and increase vulnerability to drought in rural communities.


    1973/1974: Risk and Vulnerability

    North-Eastern Highlands

    Eritrea and Tigray (Tigre)

    Drought prone region heavily dependent on pastoralism and rain-agriculture

      Over-population, overgrazing, and over-cultivation made it hard to grow food
    • Population Growth
    • Farmers, pastoralists, and agro-pastoralists displaced by commercial farms onto smaller sections of poor quality land
    • Successive drought exacerbates food insecurity issues created by human-induced environmental problems

    Eastern-Plateau

    • Wollo (Welo), parts of modern-day Shewa
    • Desse and Kombolcha Farming on the eastern-escarpment of the highlands worsens in years of drought

      The Awash Valley

      Located in modern-day Afar

      Arid, dry climate prone to drought

      Occupied by pastoralists and agro-pastoralist tribes: Jile Oromo, Arsi, Kereyu, and the Afar

      Agricultural development schemes displaced pastoralists and reduced access to land

      Precarious situation worsens due to successive droughts

      Hunger was in the Awash basin was pervasive, despite commercial farms producing non-essential food stuff for global consumption

      Lost 25-30% of their population and a portion of their livestock

      Kids 0 - 5 had a higher mortality rate

      Loss of cattle, land, life, and livelihood


      Populations affected by the 1973/1974 drought

      1973/1974: Response

        Imperial Government vs the Derg

          TPLF and EPLF vs the Derg

          Fundamental changes to agriculture industry under the new regime


          The 1984 Drought: Risk and Vulnerability

          Repeat of the 1973/1974 drought, but on a much larger scale

          Eritrea and Tigray

          Never quite recovered from the intermittent drought of the 1970s

          Drought led to declines in crop production and in rangeland vegetation

          Precarious food insecurity was capitalized on by the government

          Create conditions of famine and used it expand control over rebel group teritory

          Wollo (Welo)

          To pacify urban centers, cattle and crops were confiscated or purchased at extremely low rates in rural Wollo

          The extractive policies multiplied the situation of food insecurity, creating conditions of famine.

          Famine Relief Tax


          1984 Drought: Response

          Farmer financial assistance attempt

          Such attempts were ineffective


          Aid donors

          • Timing of aid

          Politics motivated impact response

          • Cold War

          Aid distribution


          Mass Migration

          Dependence on Aid amidst continued civil war


          The Ethiopian droughts of 1973/1974 and 1984 illustrate four things about droughts:

          • Droughts are an insidious hazard, creeping along undetected until their impacts are catastrophically un-mistakable.
          • While droughts are endemic to several climate types, there are causal links between droughts and human activity.
          • Human activity can exacerbate droughts and increase vulnerability to droughts.
          • Responses to drought are often political.