Tahoe's Climate Future

How Is Climate Change Affecting Lake Tahoe, and How Are We Adapting?

This story map highlights how climate change is expected to impact the Lake Tahoe Basin (Basin) in the coming years. It also highlights how Basin partners are already adapting to climate change. Partners include federal, state, and local public agencies, the Washoe Tribe of Nevada and California, businesses, and nonprofit organizations.

Future Climate Conditions

Summers Will Get Hotter.

By 2059 it will feel like today’s summer in Napa.

By 2099 it will feel like summer in San Jose.

More Precipitation Will Fall as Rain Rather Than Snow

Warming temperatures will shorten winter.

The elevation at which snow falls regularly during the winter will rise.

Historical: snowfall is common at all elevations.

Snowfall at Lake Tahoe

By 2050: Rain Will be More Frequent Than Snow at Lake Level.

Increasingly, snow will fall only at higher elevations.

Snowfall at Lake Tahoe

By 2100: Snow Will Fall Regularly Only On Mountaintops.

Rain becomes more common than snow at Lake Tahoe

More Extreme Weather

The amount of precipitation from the largest storms will increase by up to 30 percent.

Flooding

Flooding in South Lake Tahoe, February 2018.

The transition to more rain and more intense storms will increase the probability of flooding.

Under a more variable anticipated climate, it would cost three times less to do flooding prevention actions than to pay for damages from a major flood event.

Threats to Winter Recreation Economy

Warming temperatures could cut the length of Tahoe's winter recreation season in half by 2100.

Warmer weather will also extend the summer recreation season.

Photo by Tom Reynolds, January 3, 2018

Extreme Droughts Will Become More Common.

Photo: Pier at Tahoe City, 2015; Photo by Aerial Flight Productions (CC BY 2.0)

Wildfires Will Be Larger and More Frequent

Video: Emerald Fire from 2017.

Wildfire threatens the lives of Tahoe residents and visitors, along with  $12 billion in property  Basinwide. The total area burned by wildfires at the end of the century could be up to  61 percent larger  than that at the beginning of the century.

Burning house

The 2007 Angora Fire burned 3,100 acres of land and destroyed 254 homes. Photo: USDA Forest Service, Lake Tahoe Basin Management Unit.

Wildfires Will Cause More Smoky Days.

Wildfire smoke can affect air quality miles away from the fire. Fine particles in smoke get in the lungs, eyes, and noses, and can lead to chronic respiratory illness and even premature death.

By mid-century, total annual health-related damages from a single wildfire event  could cost as much as $7 million to $40 million .

Image: NASA Earth Observatory satellite image from August 20, 2020, during California's record-setting wildfire season.

LAKE TAHOE

Climate change will affect Lake Tahoe and all streams and lakes in the Basin.

Impact

Climate change threatens lake clarity.

Warmer temperature and decreased deep-water lake mixing threaten water clarity. Larger and more frequent wildfires and floods will also increase sediment flows into the Lake.

Adaptation

Model and design storm water facilities to provide the greatest benefits under future climate scenarios.

Storm water in ditch

Storm water management improvements along Bijou Park Creek in South Lake Tahoe.

Storm water runoff carries fine suspended sediments and excess nutrients reduce Lake Tahoe's clarity.

Adaptation

Restore rivers and wetlands to reduce sediment flows into the Lake.

Example: Restore wetlands and other sensitive habitat along the Upper Truckee River, Lake Tahoe's largest tributary.

Impact

Warming temperatures will make nearshore water more hospitable for aquatic invasive species.

For example, the Tahoe Keys lagoons are a hotspot for aquatic invasive plans.

Adaptation

Expand efforts to rapidly detect and remove aquatic invasive species.

SCUBA diver pulling plants

Photo: Tahoe Resources Conservation District / Marine Taxonomic Services

Example: Tahoe Resource Conservation District and partners are addressing aquatic invasive plant infestations all around Lake Tahoe's shoreline (see map for locations of current and planned infestation control projects).

BASIN FORESTS & UPLANDS

Impact

Longer, more frequent droughts and increased insect outbreaks will kill more trees.

Increased tree die-off can further increase wildfire risk.

dying trees in forest

Adaptation

Restore the health of forest landscapes to increase their resilience to wildfire.

Mulch

Chipped tree tops and limbs are transported to a biomass plant in Loyalton, California. 

Example: The Nevada Division of Forestry is thinning 300 acres of forest at Spooner Lake to improve forest health and diminish wildfire risk. Preventing large wildfires avoids emitting large volumes of carbon to the atmosphere. This project further cuts emissions by using the resulting biomass for wood products and energy.

Adaptation

Reduce forest fuels on all public and private lands in neighborhoods and the wildland-urban interface.

By reducing the severity of future wildfires, each $1 million invested in forest management actions would reduce property damages by $10 million.

Men cutting trees

Example:  The California Tahoe Conservancy and Nevada State Parks co-manage Van Sickle Bi-State Park. With Conservancy funding, the Tahoe Douglas Fire Protection District is thinning trees in the park to improve forest health and reduce wildfire threat. This work also protects Nevada communities that are upwind of the park.

Impact

Shrinking meadows.

Rising temperatures and decreased snowpack will likely dry out many meadows for prolonged periods, and eventually convert them to forest or shrubs.

Adaptation

Restore mountain meadows.

Meadows filter water, disperse floodflows, replenish groundwater, store carbon, and support unique plant and animal communities.

Meadow restoration

The Washoe Tribe is removing encroaching conifers from Meeks Meadow.

Example: The Washoe Tribe is restoring Máyala Wáta (also known as Meeks Meadow) with Basin partners. Tribal elders, youth, and crews will remove conifers and use traditional cultural practices to burn 200 acres of the meadow, as well as thin 100 acres of overly dense surrounding forest.

Adaptation

Reintroduce beneficial fire.

Prescribed burn

 Watch CAL FIRE's video  about how beneficial fire is improve forest health in State Parks.

Example: California State Parks and CAL FIRE are using prescribed burns to restore state lands in the Basin.

Impact

Warming temperatures and changes in precipitation will reduce habitat and cause some native species to decline, or even become locally extinct.

Pika

Pika on Mount Rose. Photo by Mark S. Enders, Nevada Tahoe Resource Team, Nevada Department of Wildlife

For example, pikas live on mountaintops where they thrive in cooler summer temperatures and build winter dens under snow for insulation. However, some local pika populations have already disappeared.

Adaptation

Monitor climate-threatened species.

Wildlife biologist

Pika survey on Mount Rose. Photo by Mark S. Enders, Nevada Tahoe Resource Team, Nevada Department of Wildlife

Example: Nevada Department of Wildlife scientists are conducting periodic surveys for pika, California spotted owls, mountain beaver and other sensitive species to understand how population sizes, distribution, and habitat use is shifting.

COMMUNITIES & INFRASTRUCTURE

Video: U.S. Highway 50 over Echo Summit.

Infrastructure

Impact

Power Lines at Risk

High-voltage power transmission lines cross lands with high risk of wildfire, and may ignite a fire if they contact surrounding vegetation. Hotter temperatures cause powerlines to sag more, increasing this danger.

The impacts of an eight-hour power outage in the City of South Lake Tahoe would  cost nearly $400,000 .

Video: Power lines in Tahoe City.

Adaptation

Remove vegetation around power lines while improving forest health.

Through the Power Line Resilience Corridor Strategy, utility companies will protect high risk communities in the Basin by removing hazards near utility lines. State and federal land managers will simultaneously thin and improve the health of the surrounding forest.

Power Line Resilience Corridors

Impact

Changes in lake levels threaten shoreline property and structures. Lower lake levels caused by extended droughts limit boating access, affecting the recreation economy. High lake levels may flood lakefront properties.

Pier at Kings Beach

For example, the existing pier and boat ramp at Kings Beach State Recreation Area cannot provide access for boaters and paddlers when lake levels are low.

Adaptation

Retrofit shoreline infrastructure to function at all lake levels.

Rendering of new pier at Kings Beach

Example: California State Parks is rebuilding the pier in a new location that will allow boaters to access the beach during low lake levels.

Impact

Extreme weather events, wildfire, and other hazards disrupt transportation, water, energy, and communication infrastructure.

Mountains increase this vulnerability by forcing infrastructure to span long distances through remote and potentially hazardous terrain.

Without adaptation, annual road damage alone could exceed $75 million by 2029.

Boulder on roadway

In the winter of 2016-2017, numerous boulders the size of large passenger vehicles fell from a roadside slope onto U.S. Highway 50 north of Cave Rock. Soon after, the Nevada Department of Transportation (NDOT) reinforced and encased the approximately 60-foot high slope above the roadside to help prevent future erosion. Photo: NDOT

Adaptation

Retrofit roads and utilities to withstand extreme weather and other climate change hazards.

Construction along highway

Construction along State Highway 28, Nevada Department of Transportation.

Example: As part of the SR 28 Corridor Management Plan, the Tahoe Transportation District, State of Nevada, and federal partners are:

  • Relocating a failing sewer line,
  • Replacing 90-year old power lines with new underground lines, and
  • Protecting communication lines against wildfire, landslides, and other hazards.

Public Health and Safety

Impact

Increased wildfire events and smoke within and outside of the Basin will threaten public health and safety.

Wildfire smoke

Smoke from the 2013 Rim Fire infiltrates Ski Run Boulevard in South Lake Tahoe. Photo: Eric Heinz / Tahoe Daily Tribune

Impact

Climate change will amplify the risk of landslides, wildfire, flooding, and avalanches to the five highways that carry all traffic in and out of the Lake Tahoe Basin.

These highways traverse canyons, steep slopes, and high mountain passes. This makes the use of roads as emergency evacuation routes especially vulnerable.

Photo: Echo Summit along U.S. Highway 50.

Adaptation

State and regional agencies are preparing for disasters, building community resilience, updating and enforcing safety policies, and educating homeowners and visitors about wildfire danger and evacuation.

Community meeting

The Tahoe Network of Fire Adapted Communities helps Tahoe residents and visitors prepare for wildfire. Photo: Tahoe Network of Fire Adapted Communities

Example: The Tahoe Fire and Fuels Team (TFFT) is a coalition of 21 local, state, federal, and tribal fire districts and land managers. TFFT’s large-scale community plans will improve how public agencies respond to a wildfire emergency. These plans consider forest fuel loadings, vulnerable populations, and water sources and communications. They also identify emergency operation centers and shelters.

Your Climate Future

What Can You Do?

Where Can You Learn More?

This story map shares information about Tahoe's future climate conditions from the  Integrated Vulnerability Assessment of Climate Change in the Lake Tahoe Basin . The future conditions are based on a standard scenario where global greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise throughout the 21st century. How much and how quickly the climate actually changes will depend on what we do to cut greenhouse gas emissions in coming years.

More resources:

Lake Tahoe Environmental Improvement Program

Flooding in South Lake Tahoe, February 2018.

The 2007 Angora Fire burned 3,100 acres of land and destroyed 254 homes. Photo: USDA Forest Service, Lake Tahoe Basin Management Unit.

Storm water management improvements along Bijou Park Creek in South Lake Tahoe.

Photo: Tahoe Resources Conservation District / Marine Taxonomic Services

Chipped tree tops and limbs are transported to a biomass plant in Loyalton, California. 

The Washoe Tribe is removing encroaching conifers from Meeks Meadow.

 Watch CAL FIRE's video  about how beneficial fire is improve forest health in State Parks.

Pika on Mount Rose. Photo by Mark S. Enders, Nevada Tahoe Resource Team, Nevada Department of Wildlife

Pika survey on Mount Rose. Photo by Mark S. Enders, Nevada Tahoe Resource Team, Nevada Department of Wildlife

For example, the existing pier and boat ramp at Kings Beach State Recreation Area cannot provide access for boaters and paddlers when lake levels are low.

In the winter of 2016-2017, numerous boulders the size of large passenger vehicles fell from a roadside slope onto U.S. Highway 50 north of Cave Rock. Soon after, the Nevada Department of Transportation (NDOT) reinforced and encased the approximately 60-foot high slope above the roadside to help prevent future erosion. Photo: NDOT

Construction along State Highway 28, Nevada Department of Transportation.

Smoke from the 2013 Rim Fire infiltrates Ski Run Boulevard in South Lake Tahoe. Photo: Eric Heinz / Tahoe Daily Tribune

The Tahoe Network of Fire Adapted Communities helps Tahoe residents and visitors prepare for wildfire. Photo: Tahoe Network of Fire Adapted Communities