Big Ideas

The transportation world is rapidly evolving, and with change comes uncertainty. Leaders in the Boston region must consider climate change, social inequity, population shifts, and transformative technologies, when making decisions about how to provide transportation infrastructure and services. How might uncertainties in these areas change our region in the future, both in the short term and the long term? What kinds of policies and infrastructure investments can help us adapt to the possible futures ahead?

One way to incorporate uncertainty into planning for the future is to use exploratory scenario planning. Exploratory scenario planning processes envision multiple possible futures (or scenarios) to assess how to best prepare for uncertainties while pursuing an overarching vision. (1)  These potential futures are shaped by driving forces, which are outside of our direct control, such as changes in society, the environment, or the economy. These forces can lead to likely outcomes (certainties), or unpredictable outcomes (uncertainties). (2)  Planners, policymakers, and other stakeholders can imagine what it would be like to live in futures shaped by these forces, and they can investigate and identify strategies or actions that are beneficial no matter what future comes to be.

The Boston Region MPO will use both stakeholder input and data resources and tools in its scenario planning process for the Destination 2050 plan. In early 2021, MPO staff started this process by hosting a series of virtual focus groups with stakeholders in the Boston region. During these conversations, 53 participants from more than 40 organizations identified big ideas, particularly the driving forces they believe will shape transportation in the region and strategies that could respond to future conditions. 

Our goal was for these focus groups to reflect diverse perspectives. We sought participation from stakeholders representing municipalities, agencies, community organizations, chambers of commerce, and advocacy groups. We looked for participants who work at the intersection of mobility and public health, economic development, housing, the environment, and other important regional planning topics. In particular, we reached out to stakeholders from organizations that work with communities that face barriers to participating in civic life and, therefore, are often underrepresented in planning processes. 

We designed these scenario-planning focus groups by adapting an approach outlined in a how-to manual supported by the  Lincoln Institute of Land Policy and the Sonoran Institute . The focus groups were made up of five to nine participants, and each group had people representing a mix of organizations, interest areas, and parts of the region, except for one group specifically focused on youth. (In a few cases, we had one-on-one conversations with invited participants if they could not attend scheduled sessions.) During each session, we described the work of the MPO, the long-range transportation plan, and exploratory scenario planning before beginning the brainstorming discussion.

To provide context for the conversations, we shared resources that reflect public input and research about transportation issues and behaviors that other organizations have collected. Some themes came from recent planning initiatives that incorporated public input into their goals and priorities:

• The Massachusetts Bay Transportation Authority’s (MBTA’s) 25-year investment plan,  Focus40 , set  goals  related to reducing greenhouse gas emissions; improving quality of life; improving mobility options for all; supporting more affordable housing near high-quality transit; and supporting local and regional economic growth and competitiveness. (3) 
• The City of Boston’s  Go Boston 2030  plan established a vision for a city where all residents have better and more equitable travel choices and the city builds efficient transportation networks that create economic opportunity and prepare for climate change. (4) 
• The  Commission on the Future of Transportation in the Commonwealth  studied and held listening sessions about future transportation challenges. The commission’s recommendations included modernizing existing assets to move more people; addressing changes in transportation technology; reducing greenhouse gases; making transportation infrastructure more resilient; coordinating land use, economic development, housing, and transportation policies and investments; and making changes to transportation governance and finance structures. (5) 

We also referenced surveys regarding commuters’ and businesses' future plans, particularly in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic:

•  In December 2020, the  MassINC Polling Group  reported that “among pre-COVID daily riders, 80 percent say they plan to take transit at least a few times a week. How often people ride will depend on a range of factors, but frequency and reliability have been cited in past polls as key barriers to transit use.” (6)
•  A Better City  conducted a survey in fall 2020 about changes in commuting in partnership with the City of Boston. They found that “of the drive-alone respondents open to changing their behavior, nearly half identify a free or reduced-cost MBTA pass as the most influential potential measure to support them in making the switch.” (7)
• The  Massachusetts Competitive Partnership  conducted two surveys (in August 2020 and December 2020) of more than 100 Massachusetts-based employers. Thirty-eight percent of employers who responded said that they were considering reducing their office space in Massachusetts, and 14 percent said that they would move their urban office location to a more suburban location. The Massachusetts Competitive Partnership also estimated that 51 percent of the workforce will continue to work from home at least part of the time post-pandemic. (8)  

To support brainstorming, we posed this main discussion question to each group:

As the Boston region faces uncertainty in the upcoming decades, how do we plan for a sustainable, safe, resilient, and equitable transportation system that provides excellent mobility and supports a healthy and economically vibrant region?

To help get people thinking about the future, we asked a few more questions:

• What will the transportation landscape look like in 20 years? 
• How will demographics change? 
• What new technologies might there be? 
• How will climate change or other external events affect how we get around?

A Google Jamboard was used to collect written feedback during each conversation.

Participants were encouraged to suggest what they felt was certain or uncertain about the future of transportation and what critical uncertainties they thought would determine the most credible, challenging, and plausible range of futures we may encounter. They were also asked to propose strategies and actions that could work across a range of futures. 

The focus group participants’ feedback was rich in expertise and experience, expressing big hopes and fears for our region. 

• There will be investment in reliable, frequent, safe, sustainable, culturally responsive, and affordable public transit—from flexible bus routes to electrified rail.
• There will be support for transportation access and action taken to combat gentrification and displacement.
• The region will adapt to the vast effects of climate change—from robust stormwater management and shelter from extreme heat to flexible transportation options that will not be cut off by sea-level rise. Young people spoke the most about the climate, including their hopes of increasing sustainability and balance with nature. 
• There will be improved connectivity to jobs, services, and social opportunities.
• Public health will be prioritized to prevent future pandemics and harmful emissions that cause chronic health issues will be reduced or eliminated, particularly in areas that have been disproportionately affected by transportation pollution. 
• Equity will be centered in transportation investments and policymaking to address historic disinvestment.
• Safe and fun walking, biking, and micromobility options will be expanded for all users—from children to older adults.

• Public transit ridership will continue to decrease as disinvestment accelerates the system’s decline into disrepair. 
• More people will use personal vehicles, which could be exacerbated by the availability of autonomous vehicles.
• Inequities will increase, and there will be extensive displacement of current residents, especially people of color or those who have lower incomes or limited English proficiency.
• Extreme weather will disrupt communities and reduce access to jobs, services, and housing. 
• The specters of sea level rise, pollution, agricultural disruption, and biodiversity collapse loomed over the discussions of the future, particularly during the youth-centered focus group.

Working together, the focus group participants debated the certainties and uncertainties that may shape the future, including which ones are likely to have the most impact on the region. They also discussed ways policymakers could respond to these driving forces and their effects. We are grateful to the participants for giving their time and thoughts. Exploratory scenario development that is shaped by public input helps planners propose solutions that promote the futures we want, work to prevent the futures we fear, and prepare for those that may be inevitable. 

We have summarized participants’ feedback about certain and uncertain driving forces and their potential effects by theme. These thematic sections also describe strategies participants suggested to help the region move toward a desirable future. These ideas will inform and support MPO board members as they take the next steps to create scenarios and explore policies and actions.

In the fall of 2021, the MPO will begin to create scenarios for Destination 2050 based on the focus group input, staff research, and other considerations. To support this process, MPO staff will continue to process and add to the information focus group participants provided about driving forces. We will then propose scenario options to the MPO board to gather members’ feedback about scenarios they would prioritize for analysis. After the MPO board selects scenarios for staff to analyze, we will use a variety of tools and data to model these potential futures and examine how different transportation strategies perform in each one. We will share the findings of this process with the MPO board to help them decide what kinds of transportation programs and projects they should fund using the MPO’s federal discretionary dollars, and what related policies they should include in Destination 2050. Results from this process will also be shared with the MPO’s transportation partners, including the Massachusetts Department of Transportation, the MBTA, the Metropolitan Area Planning Council, municipalities, regional transit authorities, and others. 

This exploratory scenario planning process is one of several ongoing activities that will help the MPO create Destination 2050. Other activities happening in 2021 and 2022 include gathering input on regional transportation needs and revisiting the MPO’s goals for the region’s transportation system. The MPO's website will have information about meetings during which scenarios will be discussed and additional details about the Destination 2050 process. To stay involved,  subscribe for updates  and follow us on  Facebook ,  Twitter , and  Instagram , @BostonRegionMPO.

Thank you to all those who gave their time to participate in these focus groups. You helped us understand how to think about the future and the intersection of transportation issues with housing, the environment, economic development, equity, demographic changes, political considerations, and more. 

This project would not have been possible without the thoughtful assistance of MPO staff members Róisín Foley, Betsy Harvey, David Davenport, Meghan O'Connor, Marty Milkovits, Sabiheh Faghih, Michelle Scott, Anne McGahan, Jonathan Church, Kate Parker O'Toole, Gina Perille, and Annette Demchur.

1. Jeremy Stapleton, How to Use Exploratory Scenario Planning: Navigating an Uncertain Future, Lincoln Institute of Land Policy and the Sonoran Institute, (August 2020), page 8, accessed October 14, 2021.  https://www.lincolninst.edu/publications/policy-focus-reports/how-use-exploratory-scenario-planning-xsp. 
2. Diana Scearce and Katherine Fulton, What If? The Art of Scenario Thinking for Nonprofits (Global Business Network 2004), page 27, accessed October 14, 2021.  https://community-wealth.org/content/what-if-art-scenario-thinking-nonprofits.  
3. Massachusetts Bay Transportation Authority, Focus40 (March 2019), page 9, accessed October 15, 2021.  https://static1.squarespace.com/static/57757a3cff7c50f318d8aae0/t/5c9042690852294993eae62b/1552958096600/F40+Final+Book+Layout_V9-2019_03_13-508compliant.pdf . 
4. City of Boston, Go Boston 2030 Vision and Action Plan (March 2017), page 8, accessed October 15, 2021.  https://www.boston.gov/sites/default/files/file/document_files/2019/06/go_boston_2030_-_full_report.pdf.  
5. Commission on the Future of Transportation in the Commonwealth. Choices for Stewardship: Recommendations to Meet the Transportation Future (Volume I) (January 2019), pages 32-34, accessed November 1, 2021.  https://www.mass.gov/doc/choices-for-stewardship-recommendations-to-meet-the-transportation-future-volume-1/download .
6. MassInc Polling Group, “Residents express broad opposition to MBTA service cuts, favor increased state funding to close agency's budget gap” (December 3, 2020), accessed October 15, 2021.  https://www.massincpolling.com/the-topline/residents-express-broad-opposition-to-mbta-service-cuts-favor-increased-state-funding-to-close-agencys-budget-gap .
7. A Better City, Anticipating Post-Pandemic Commute Trends in Metro Boston (November 2020), page 3, accessed October 15, 2021.  https://www.abettercity.org/docs-new/EF_Survey_Report_Nov_2020.pdf.  
8. Massachusetts Competitive Partnership, “MACP COVID-19 Remote Work Survey Results” (December 22, 2020), accessed October 15, 2021.  https://www.masscompetes.org/copy-of-covid19-survey-results-1 .