Sea Level Rise, Groundwater, and Adaptation

The final set of Santa Monica Bay workshops will be held on Wednesday, March 27 & Thursday, March 28, 2024 at the Burton Chace Park Boathouse in Marina del Rey. View a draft agenda and register  here . For questions, please reach out to Karina Alvarez (karinaa9@usc.edu).

To receive project updates, sign up for the USC Sea Grant AdaptLA newsletter  here . Watch the most recent Santa Monica Bay workshop (from May 31, 2023)  here  and see additional workshop recordings and summaries below.

A Tale of Two Bays focuses on modeling surface and subsurface flooding with sea level rise and adaptation strategies in Santa Monica Bay (urban) and Humbolt Bay (rural). Use the tabs above to navigate between the study area sites.

The project is led by the University of Arkansas, and is funded through the NCCOS Ecological Effects of Sea Level Rise Program. Project partners include:

• University of Arkansas
• Point Blue Conservation Science
• University of Texas Arlington
• U.S. Geological Survey
• Greenway Partners
• University of Southern California Sea Grant

A project summary can be found here:  https://coastalscience.noaa.gov/project/exploring-ecosystem-and-community-vulnerability-to-surface-and-subsurface-flooding-in-california/ 

This project builds upon sea level rise modeling efforts like the Coastal Storm Modelling System (CoSMoS) to begin to understand the complex interactions of groundwater movement and the responses to a variety of adaptation strategies along the coastline.

To view CoSMoS maps visit

Santa Monica Bay spans over 70 miles of coastline, with many jurisdictions, and coastal stakeholder interests. Leveraging USC Sea Grant's AdaptLA network, a regional approach to sea level rise and coastal hazards planning and adaptation, coastal managers, local city planners, and scientists attended the first workshop to inform the Tale of Two Bays project.

On September 17th, 2020 stakeholders in the region attended a workshop to learn about and help inform an ongoing research collaboration focused on modeling sea level rise, groundwater, and adaptation strategies in Santa Monica Bay. A second workshop was held on October 8th, 2020 to continue the discussion on potential sites within Santa Monica Bay and adaptation strategies to include in modeling efforts moving forward.

To view CoSMoS maps visit  Our Coast Out Future (OCOF)  and to learn more about USC Sea Grant's AdaptLA program click  here .

The first workshop introduced the Tale of Two Bays project including presentations:

• Development of the Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) - Patrick Barnard (U.S. Geological Survey)
• The Science - Modeling Storm Surge, Sea Level Rise, and Groundwater Flooding - Kevin Befus (University of Arkansas) and Michelle Hummel (University of Texas Arlington)

Recordings of both workshops can be viewed here:

Workshop #1

Workshop #2

During the first workshop, stakeholders engaged in breakout room discussion and were asked to identify what each organization/agency values in the coastal area. Breakout rooms were divided by geography within Santa Monica Bay, focused on Malibu, Santa Monica to Marina del Rey, and the South Bay. Coastal values were identified throughout all discussions and included:

• Access to the coast for residents and visitors
• Cultural, recreation, and economic benefits
• Protection of critical infrastructure including residences, businesses, transportation, and piers
• Ensuring there is a thriving coast for future generations
• Environmental values including habitat and natural resource protection and restoration
• Mental and physical health benefits
• Underrepresented and underserved communities
• Archaeological sites

Stakeholders also discussed priority areas to consider for modeling sea level rise, groundwater, and adaptation options. General recommendations included focusing modeling efforts on important natural resources like coastal estuaries and lagoons to protecting homes and beaches identified as vulnerable through CoSMoS. Additionally, discussion included considering the feasibility of adaptation options for specific locations. The following maps summarize stakeholder input in identifying priority areas by geography.

Malibu

Santa Monica to Marina del Rey

South Bay

Workshop #2 on October 8th, 2021 presented a recap of the first workshop, including synthesis of stakeholder discussions, and a presentation by the project team on modeling details, limitations, and potential adaptation strategies. Breakout room discussions revisited coastal locations identified from Workshop #1 and discussed adaptation strategies that should be prioritized for modeling efforts. These locations and potential adaptation strategies are shown in the map below.

On June 23rd, 2021 stakeholders in the region attended a workshop to learn about and help inform an ongoing research collaboration focused on modeling sea level rise, groundwater, and adaptation strategies in Humboldt. A second workshop was held on July 28th, 2021 to discuss potential modelling sites and adaptation strategies.

The first workshop introduced the Tale of Two Bays project including presentations:

• Development of the Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) - Patrick Barnard (U.S. Geological Survey)
• The Science - Modeling Storm Surge, Sea Level Rise, and Groundwater Flooding - Kevin Befus (University of Arkansas) and Michelle Hummel (University of Texas Arlington)

Recordings of both workshops can be viewed here:

Workshop #1

Workshop #2

During the first workshop, stakeholders engaged in breakout room discussion and were asked to identify what each organization/agency values were in the coastal area. Breakout rooms contained a diverse set of stakeholders including local, state, federal government representatives, NGOs, and community representatives from low-lying areas vulnerable to sea level rise. Coastal values were identified throughout all discussions and included:

• Critical utility & transportation infrastructure
• Communities at risk
• Coastal resources (wildlife, wetlands, and agricultural lands)
• Water quality
• Economic viability
• Coastal access
• Archeological sites

During Workshop #1, stakeholders identified a range of areas in Humboldt Bay that were representative of coastal values and vulnerable to sea level rise. Explore the interactive map below and click sites to view details.

Workshop #2 on July 28th, 2021 presented a recap of the first workshop, including synthesis of stakeholder discussions, and a presentation by the project team on modeling details, limitations, and potential adaptation strategies. Breakout room discussions continued to identify potential shoreline locations and adaptation strategies that should be prioritized for modeling efforts and that are representative of Humboldt bay. These locations and potential adaptation strategies are shown in the map below.

Humboldt Bay is characterized by small coastal communities, diked former tidelands, critical transportation and utility infrastructure, agricultural lands, and natural spaces that are all vulnerable to sea level rise, groundwater, and coastal hazards. Four key locations (shown above) were identified as representative of the Humboldt Bay coastal areas. Stakeholders were interested in modeling a wide range of adaptation strategies at each site, from living shorelines to a sea wall, as well as potential hybrid strategies like dike relocation.

Numerical modelling and adaptation scenarios in progress

Utilizing information from stakeholder meetings in Santa Monica Bay and Humboldt Bay, the project team is currently developing numerical models and adaptation scenarios. Bay-specific workshops are planned to gain feedback on preliminary model results and a final workshop will combine both locations and stakeholders to help make connections between the bays and share experiences.

For inquiries on modeling efforts please contact: Kevin Befus at kmbefus@uark.edu or Michelle Hummel at michelle.hummel@uta.edu