New River Valley Regional Economic Strategy

The New River Valley Regional Economic Strategy (RES), also known as the Comprehensive Economic Development Strategy (CEDS) is designed to create broad goals to develop the region's economy in partnership with representatives of the region's communities. Implementing these goals will promote regional and local growth. Input from a range of partners representing private and public sectors informed the creation of the RES. The committee reviews economic conditions, sets priorities, and offers guidance for this strategy to shape the economic focus for the region.

The Regional Economic Strategy contains the following sections:

About the Region: An overview providing context and information about the current state of the New River Valley (NRV) and its effects on the economy.  

SWOT Analysis: A collaborative process utilized to determine regional strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats. The tool identifies priorities to promote and expand the region's economic capacity. 

Resilience: An exploration of the region’s ability to prevent, withstand, and recover from disruptions to its economy, particularly the Covid-19 pandemic.

Action Plan: Informed by the SWOT analysis and Resilience sections, the Action Plan sets regional priorities and strategies for economic development and documents the region's priority projects.

Evaluation Framework: A means of identifying and prioritizing RES projects that will positively impact the region’s economy and enable the commission to track the progress of economic priorities and development over time.

The NRV comprises the counties of  Floyd ,  Giles ,  Montgomery , and  Pulaski , the  City of Radford , and 10 incorporated towns. The region also has three higher education institutions:  Virginia Tech ,  Radford University , and  New River Community College .

Additional data about the region can be found on the  NRV Data Dashboard  .

The pandemic has notably impacted regions worldwide, and the NRV is no exception. With an estimated population of 183,586 as of 2023, the NRV is projected to experience a decrease of 0.4% through 2030. In contrast, the Commonwealth's projected population growth rate is 4.6% over the same time period.

While Virginia continues to grow steadily in terms of absolute population size, the rate of population growth is expected to drop from 7.9% in the last decade. Historically, the statewide growth rate has fluctuated over the decades, and this slower pace of growth is not unanticipated, given the nature of the current demographic trends of lower births, higher deaths, and fewer people moving in.

Across the country, localities with relatively large college populations, including some Virginia localities, were often undercounted in the April 1st, 2020, Census Count. In order to correct this undercount, the Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service has benchmarked population estimates on the Weldon Cooper Center estimates instead of the 2020 Census count for localities with populations comprising of over 20 percent college students.

This includes Charlottesville, Harrisonburg, Lexington, Lynchburg, Montgomery County, Prince Edward County, Radford, and Williamsburg.

While the April 1, 2020, Census Count estimated a population of 180,470 for the NRV, updated Weldon Cooper estimates included an over 4,000 increase to 184,990. The following table breaks down the updated count by locality and comparisons to state and national counts from 2020 to 2023.

Nearly four years since the pandemic began in the U.S., its repercussions remain a significant source of uncertainty in understanding what demographic trends will look like for what remains of the 2020s.

Though growth accelerated in Virginia and across the U.S. in 2023, but still fell short of the figures seen in past decades. Between 2022 and 2023, the growth rate for both Virginia and the entire country remained below half a percent. For Virginia, this is the slowest it has grown since the Civil War. The muted growth rates can be attributed to the slow decrease in death rates from their pandemic peaks and the lack of recovery in birth rates since their decline in 2020.

Housing plays a crucial role in regional economic development as it not only reflects the area's prosperity but also influences workforce availability and stability. A robust housing sector attracts and retains talent, fueling economic growth and innovation. Over the last few years, the median sales price continues to rise for the NRV .

*Use the slider below to see a comparison of sales price for entire region, as well as broken down by locality.

Another factor impacting housing is the median days on market. The time a house stays on the market has shortened from 43 days in 2016 to just 5 days in 2022.

Analyzing commuting patterns is key to understanding regional growth and quality of life. The pre-pandemic year of 2019 offers a baseline, while 2021, one year post-pandemic, shows the beginning of recovery. In 2021, the NRV saw an increase in attracting talent, indicating more inward commuting. However, job retention dipped, with a loss of about 750 jobs, underscoring the complex challenges in the post-pandemic labor market and highlighting the need for focused strategies to boost economic resilience and workforce development in the NRV.

This illustration shows workers flowing into the region (left-side arrow), those who live and work in the region (middle icon), and workers commuting outside the NRV (right-side arrow).

*Use the slider below to see a comparison of commuting throughout the region in 2019 and 2021.

This map shows 2021 commuting patterns, indicating how many people work in their home locality, how many commute outside of their locality while staying in the NRV, and those commuting outside of the NRV.

Additionally, we want to have a better understanding of where we are attracting workers. The following table highlights the top residential locations outside of the NRV. A majority are coming from Roanoke County and Roanoke City, while Wythe County, Bedford County, and Carroll County all contribute talent for of our region's workforce.

It's important to note that commuting data in the graphics above do not provide detail on remote work. That information can be found in the American Community Survey (ACS). For workers 16 years and over in the New River Valley, it is estimated that 4% worked from home in 2019, increasing to 7.9% in 2022. In comparison these numbers track below state and national numbers, with Virginia reporting 14%, and the United States at 11.7% in 2022.

*Work at home refers to a worker’s lack of travel from home to a separate workplace. On the ACS, there isn’t a specific question regarding work at home; rather, the respondent answered “Worked at home” to the question, “How did you usually get to work LAST WEEK?”

Since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, there has been a significant shift in the relationship between employees and their work environments due to the growing trend of remote work. The early stages of the pandemic acted as a driving force for this change, with the emphasis on social distancing leading to a surge in the number of people working from home. With the expansion of broadband connectivity, rural areas have an opportunity to harness the potential of remote workers, with affordability and accessible outdoor amenities a compelling draw.