Archie Creek Fire, Western Oregon

Dry conditions and well above normal temperatures provided the perfect environment for fires to explode. The Archie Creek Fire began on the morning of September 8th. Combine that with the 40 mph gusts present, the fire would continue to grow for the next 24 hours to nearly 100,000 acres. NWS Medford played a role in helping promote the extreme fire weather conditions.

Temperature were well above normal in western Oregon and the below normal precipitation allowed for conditions to significantly dry out. The U.S. Drought Monitor went from Abnormally Dry to Extreme Drought in a matter of 8 month. Meteorologists try to make light of a situation such as the tweet below from NWS Medford.

NWS Medford was beginning to sound like a broken record with the continued heat but the conditions were well above normal for the first week of September.

Combined with the heat the conditions for extreme fire concerns increased as well.

• September 8: Fire Reported at 7:37 AM PDT
• September 8: 72,000 acres (8:00 PM PDT Estimate)
• September 9: Nearly 100,000 acres (Morning Estimate)
• September 10: 107,000 acres (Morning Estimate)
• September 11: 115,857 acres (Evening Estimate)
• September 12: 115,857 acres (Afternoon Estimate)
• September 13: 121,379 acres (Afternoon Estimate)
• September 14: 121,379 acres (Morning Estimate)
• September 15: 125,498 acres (Evening Estimate)
• September 16: 125,498 acres (Morning Estimate)
• September 17: 128,020 acres (Evening Estimate)
• September 18: 130,429 acres (Evening Estimate)
• ...
• October 31: 131,542 Acres acres (100% Contained)

As September 8th approached, the NWS Medford office began to ramp up messaging 4 days in advance due to increasing winds and low humidity levels. This included the following.

• September 4th at 3:35 PM PDT: Fire Weather Watched issued for Fire Weather Zone 616 and 617. Winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph and relative humidity as low as 10%.

• September 5th at 8:22 PM PDT: Fire Weather Watch upgraded to a Red Flag Warning for Fire Weather Zone 616 and 617. Winds 20 to 25 mph with gusts to 40 mph and relative humidity as low as 10% with poor overnight recoveries.

NWS Medford provided a loop forecast of forecasted wind gusts for Labor Day. While the fire may not have begun until the next day, the situation was becoming real.

Is there such thing as being over-prepared? NWS Medford didn't think so. Even the day after the strong winds began, NWS Medford continued to publicize information of being prepared to evacuate. Always have an evacuation plan for your family so that everyone is safe!

A few short hours later, at approximately 7:37 AM PDT, the Archie Creek Fire began.

8 hours later, the Archie Creek Fire exploded to 30,000 acres. That's roughly 62.5 acres a minute!

The fire was explosive to say the least. 24 hours later, the fire was estimated at nearly 100,000 acres. The fire went from an estimated 62.5 acres a minute to 69.4 acres a minute!

Yesterday’s fire activity was explosive to say the least. At this time, we do not have information about specific homes but we have been told by the structural protection resources that structures have been lost on this fire and fire officials are working to collect that data. Unfortunately, DFPA’s Rock Creek Guard Station was one of the structures that was lost." - Douglas Forest Protective Association (DFPA)

Strong winds were going to continue September 9th, the day after the fire began. Thankfully, the fire would only grow 7,000 acres on this day.

The public frequently asks NWS Offices questions which they are willing to answer are sometimes in areas that is not in their field. While NWS Offices do fire weather, the best that NWS Offices can do for up to date fire information is to offer up websites or pages people can visit to follow, such as Inciweb. NWS has no way to identify and predict how large fires are.

Video below shows footage of the explosive behavior of the Archie Creek Fire.

The first perimeter of the fire was published showing the areas that fire had reached.

A couple from Glide who have been married for the last 77 years were able to safely escape the fire as it moved towards their home. They had what they treasured most, each other.

On the evening of September 10th, the fire had grown to an estimated 107,000 acres, pushing towards the town of Glide, OR.

On September 11th, the fire was estimated at 115,000 acres with smoke impacting most of the western coast, not only from this fire but the dozen others across Washington, Oregon, and California.

On September 18, 2020, the unthinkable happened when an off-duty firefighter was killed. He was found unresponsive in his vehicle. More information is in the link below.

Fast forward to the end of March 2021, delays are still preventing survivors from rebuilding. Between lost paperwork and miscommunication between agencies, survivors have turned to paying out of pocket rather than waiting for the government to clean up their properties. 6 months after the destruction, people are looking to rebuild their lives.