Impact Summary September 2021

Flash drought developed in the Southern Plains, notably in Oklahoma, ramping up at the end of the growing season. Parts of Texas, eastern Colorado and sections of the Midwest also turned dry in September, as did small areas of Idaho to the western Dakotas and eastern North Carolina. Drought eased in swaths of the Dakotas, Minnesota, Indiana, Maine and the Pacific Northwest and also in pockets of the Desert Southwest and elsewhere in the U.S.

The NDMC added many impacts to the Drought Impact Reporter in September, mostly relating to the multitude of water restrictions in the West as well as the agricultural losses that drought and heat caused. At least 78 impacts described the numerous water restrictions currently in effect in California with the rainy season set to begin later in the year. Utah, Colorado and Nevada had 24, 21 and 20, respectively, as a lot of states in the western U.S. dealt with short water supplies and agricultural damage, crop losses and reduced pasture and forage after an unusually hot, dry summer. 

The sizzling hot, tinder dry summer that much of the eastern U.S. endured limited crop growth, devastating yields; seared pastures, leaving little to no grazing for livestock; and forced livestock owners to think very carefully about buying pricey hay or selling animals. From Canada across the U.S. and down to Mexico, many cattle producers opted to sell livestock, per  Reuters . The liquidation of breeding stock is expected to limit cattle production for years, tighten the North American beef supply, and increase prices consumers will pay, according to ranchers and cattle experts.

To help livestock producers with the challenges of keeping their herds fed, the U.S. Department of Agriculture on September 8 announced plans to help cover the cost of transporting feed for livestock that rely on grazing, in response to severe drought, according to the  Farm Service Agency .

The Bureau of Reclamation released projections for the Colorado River Basin, and they are concerning. By 2025, there’s a 66% chance Lake Mead will fall low enough to trigger a second phase of water cuts, per  Associated Press News . California is the state with the most senior water rights to Colorado River water.

There is a 3% chance Lake Powell will fall to a level where Glen Canyon Dam can’t produce power as early as 2022 if the next winter is relatively dry, and a 34% chance that power production could end in 2023.

Lakes Mead and Powell have a combined water storage of 39% of capacity, compared to 49% at this time in 2020, according to the Bureau of Reclamation. The seven states in the Colorado River Basin agreed to guidelines for the river and a drought plan in 2019; both agreements will expire in 2026.

The upper Missouri River Basin has been unusually dry, limiting inflows into reservoirs and lowering the flow of the river. With August inflows much below average, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers planned to reduce releases from Fort Peck Dam in Montana from 9,500 cubic feet per second to 5,000 cfs in September, as reported by  The Billings Gazette . Inflows were expected to remain below average for the remainder of 2021.

Winter releases from Gavins Point Dam in southern South Dakota will be the minimum rate of 12,000 cfs, per the  U.S. Army Corps of Engineers . The low level of the Missouri River in North Dakota exposed a shipwrecked steamboat, the Abner O’Neal, which was carrying 9,000 bushels of wheat when it sank in 1892. The site, which is north of Bismarck, is accessible by kayak, as reported by  KFYR  in Bismarck, N.D.

Water supplies were tightening in California after a summer of drought, intense heat and wildfires. Californians were asked in July by Gov. Gavin Newsom to curb water use by 15%, and results of people’s efforts were revealed to be water savings of 1.8% for that month, compared to the previous July, as reported by  The San Jose Mercury News . Of 376 cities and water districts reporting water statistics to the State Water Resources Control Board, only 26, or 7%, met or exceeded the target. 

Water conservation was important as the past two winters have been relatively dry, so reservoirs were no longer brimming, and were instead in need of abundant snow in the Sierra Nevada this winter, requiring 140% of average precipitation to provide average runoff. With a La Niña pattern expected to develop, the likelihood is for a drier winter in Southern California and the southern U.S.

If snowpack is less than desired and runoff again is below normal, 2022 will be difficult for the Golden State’s water supplies. State water allocations for those south of the Delta could be zero next year, although it was only 5% this year, and even settlement contractors, those with water rights predating California’s water system, could receive less water in 2022. The State Water Project provides water for 27 million Californians and 750,000 acres of farmland.

In addition to tight water supplies, electricity production was low in California as well, due to extreme heat, an active wildfire season, strong winds and various grid issues. The state needed to come up with additional power as hydropower production was reduced, due to drought. The Department of Energy approved a request from the California Independent System Operator for additional power generation, according to  Natural Gas Intelligence .

CAISO’s chief operating officer noted that drought was greatly affecting the availability of hydroelectric power. For September, CAISO was expecting “a significant supply deficiency to meet planning reserve requirements during evening hours,” officials stated. The additional gas-fired capacity was essential to CAISO maintaining reliability and meeting its load obligations. The emergency order approved by DOE was to remain in effect until November 9.

At the end of September, four temporary mobile emergency power generating units totaling 120 megawatts were online in case they were needed to support California's energy grid in times of extreme stress, per  California Department of Water Resources .

Monsoon rains improved Utah’s water supplies, but reservoirs statewide remained below 40% of capacity, per  The Salt Lake Tribune . The state needs deep snowpack this coming winter to ease the drought and improve the water situation. Precipitation in August was four times below normal in many places.

Drought persisted despite this year’s active monsoon in the Southwest. The head of the Department of Natural Resources requested that the state of emergency be extended beyond October 31, as reported by  KUER 90.1   in Salt Lake City. Gov. Spencer Cox originally declared the  state of emergency  in March 2021.

Water conservation was encouraged in Utah, and  Utahns  responded very well to requests for water conservation, according to  FOX13  in Salt Lake City. The Jordan Valley Water Conservancy District reported a 31% decrease in water deliveries. Salt Lake City and some Salt Lake Valley communities have saved 1.8 billion gallons since July 1, according to Salt Lake City Public Utilities.

Even massive bodies of water, such as the Great Lakes, can be lowered by drought. Drought to the north in Canada and west of Lake Superior allowed the lake’s level to drop in August below the seasonal average for the first time in more than 7 years, according to the  Duluth News Tribune  in Minnesota. Tributaries in northern Minnesota that typically flow into Lake Superior were barely flowing and, in some cases, not flowing into the massive lake, due to drought. The St. Louis River, the largest U.S. tributary to Lake Superior, was flowing in August at just 10% normal.

The Great Lakes have been at record high levels over the past few years, but were dropping lower, as reported by  MLive  in Detroit. The level of Lake Michigan and Lake Huron, connected by the Straits of Mackinac, declined rapidly—17 inches since July 2020, per the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. One inch of water for those lakes is the equivalent of 800 billion gallons of water, so the 17-inch decline means the disappearance of 13.6 trillion gallons of water as the dry winter, spring and early summer led to less runoff into the lakes.

For more drought impact information, please visit the  Drought Impact Reporter .