National Weather Service: Delivering the Forecast to You
An overview of products provided by the National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office in Grand Junction, Colorado
An overview of products provided by the National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office in Grand Junction, Colorado
NWS meteorologists create forecasts for a wide variety of weather elements such as rainfall, snow storms, severe weather, and hurricanes. Our hydrologists specialize in how water flows across the landscape and makes it into lakes, streams and rivers. Climate forecasters in the NWS focus on large-scale temperature and precipitation patterns on time scales ranging from a couple weeks to several months.
The forecast process is roughly the same regardless of the type of weather. Our scientists thoroughly review current conditions using radar, satellite and observational data from an assortment of ground-based and airborne instruments to get the most complete picture possible. Forecasters rely on our Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS) to create what’s called an “analysis,” which is a graphical representation of current conditions. Once this assessment is complete and the analysis is created, forecasters use a wide variety of numerical models, statistical and conceptual models, and years of local experience to determine how current conditions will change with time. Numerical modeling is fully ingrained in the forecast process, and our forecasters review the output of these models daily. Often, the models yield different results, and in these circumstances, forecasters will determine which models perform best for the given situation or seek a blended solution.
Typical AWIPS workstation at a WFO
One of the key considerations associated with any forecast is the element of uncertainty. The chaotic nature of the earth-atmosphere system and incomplete sampling of its complicated physical processes mean that forecasts become more uncertain at longer time ranges. This uncertainty is why the human component remains a vital piece of the forecast process; as once the forecast is complete, effective communication of the forecast message becomes as important as the details of the forecast itself. This includes communicating which parts of the forecast are “uncertain” or what might be the “worst-case scenario” if the forecast changes.
WFO Grand Junction provides generalized forecasts for 28 zones across eastern Utah and western Colorado. “Zones” are areas that represent similar geographic and/or climatological regions.
WFO Grand Junction Forecast "Zones"
NWS meteorologists are continually updating the forecast with the latest information to ensure you have a timely and accurate forecast at all times. You can access the forecast in a variety of ways by visiting each NWS office's website. A breakdown of some of the main ways to access the forecast can be found below.
The NWS has revolutionized the way you can access the forecast for your exact location using the new Forecast Points website . With this site, you can access maximum and minimum temperatures, sky cover percentage, probability of precipitation, forecast precipitation and snow amount, weather type, relative humidity, wind speed, direction, and gusts, dewpoint temperature, and so on. You can also bookmark your specific point for later reference.
Clicking on the WFO map from our homepage will instantly present the forecast for the area you selected in both graphical and text formats. These forecasts are geographically specific and represent a 2.5 x 2.5 km area as shown in green on the map to the right.
You can also create your own forecast for a specific area using the "User-Defined Area Forecast" tool. Why would you want to do this? Say you were heading to the mountains for a hike - you can create a forecast for the hike you’ll go on. You plan on going skiing over the weekend? You can create a forecast for the ski area!
It's super easy to use the tool. All you need to do is click "User-Defined Area Forecast" from the drop-down menu under the "Forecasts" tab on our homepage . Then, simply add your desired points to create a polygon and click "Get Area Forecast".
You can also access meteograms for a specific forecast point, in either graphical or tabular format. A meteogram is a time series of forecast weather data for a particularly station. You can access these meteograms by clicking "Hourly Weather Forecast" under the "More Information" section of a point-and-click forecast.
News and headlines can be found at the top of each WFO homepage. They can be storm specific, informational or generalized in nature.
Understanding the terminology behind weather forecasts is an integral part of decision-making. Below are common weather terms and their meanings. Or, visit our NWS Glossary . In it, you can search for any weather term referenced in our products.
Sky condition describes the predominant/average sky condition based upon the amount of sky covered by opaque (not transparent) clouds.
Wind describes the prevailing direction from which the wind is blowing with speed in miles per hour. The numbers may vary in other parts of the country due to variation in terrain and elevation.
Forecast temperature describes the forecast maximum and minimum temperatures or, in some cases, the temperature expected at a specific time. Temperature is reported in degrees Fahrenheit.
PoP is the likelihood of measurable precipitation (or water equivalent of frozen precipitation) falling during a specified period in the forecast area. Measurable precipitation is equal to or greater than 0.01 inch (0.2 mm) over a period of 12 hours, unless specified otherwise.
At times, NWS forecasters may use “occasional” or “periods of” to describe a precipitation event that has a high probability of occurrence, i.e., they expect any given location in a forecast area to most likely have precipitation, but it will be of an “on and off” nature.
Wind chill describes the rate of heat loss from exposed skin due to the combined effect of wind and cold. As wind speed increases, heat is lost from the body at an accelerated rate lowering the body temperature. A Wind Chill Table is a matrix that uses sustained wind speeds to determine wind chill.
Heat affects everyone differently. In order to better address heat risk and allow you to prepare for upcoming heat events, the NWS has developed the HeatRisk prototype forecast . The HeatRisk approach identifies unusual heat specifically for that particular date and location, rather than just using a single threshold value applied across a large area. This allows the approach to better account for acclimation and the variation in climatology that we know exists across most regions of the country.
Example Detailed Hazards Viewer
To accomplish its mission of protecting life and property, the NWS relies not only on local expertise, but also on a variety of special severe weather centers specializing in convective storms, hurricanes, snowstorms, flooding, and more. To view current hazards across the United States, check out our Detailed Hazards Viewer .
The NWS uses a notification system based on the increasing likelihood that a hazardous weather or water incident will occur. Starting with outlooks, then watches, and finishing with warnings and advisories, this approach provides the public with confidence that an incident is imminent or occurring in their location.
The NWS issues outlooks for weather or water incidents that are expected to occur within the next 7-day period for conditions or an event that could result in a hazard, yet too far in the future for a watch, advisory or warning. The intention of outlooks is to increase public awareness of a potential hazard that may affect life and property.
The NWS issues watches 2 to 24 hours in advance of potentially hazardous weather or water incidents, allowing the community time to plan. Watches for long fused events, such as winter storms or river flooding, may be issued up to 2-3 days before the onset of expected dangerous weather conditions. A watch indicates the risk of a hazardous incident has increased significantly but its occurrence, location, and/or timing is still uncertain.
The mission of the SPC is to provide timely and accurate forecasts and watches for severe thunderstorms and tornadoes over the contiguous United States. They also monitor and issue specific products for heavy rain or snow and fire weather incidents across the country. Forecasts of organized severe weather are relayed as much as 3 days in advance, and they are continually updated until the event has ended. SPC issues a variety of products including Daily Convective Outlooks , Severe Thunderstorm and Tornado Watches , and Mesoscale Discussions .
Advisories highlight special weather conditions that are less serious than a warning. They are for incidents that may cause significant inconvenience and, without due caution, could lead to a dangerous or threatening situation.
Warnings are more serious than advisories. When severe or hazardous weather is occurring, imminent, or poses a threat to lives and/or property, forecasters issue warnings. Warnings also include brief guidance on taking protective measures.
The NWS spotter program is a nationwide network of volunteers trained by the NWS to provide timely and accurate reports of severe or significant weather events. These volunteers report severe weather events whenever and wherever they are observed. NWS forecasters use this information in concert with radar, satellite and other data to make warning-related decisions. Storm spotting goes way back! Check out this cool video that shows what it was like to be a weather spotter in the 1950s !
The Grand Junction WFO maintains a spotter network of over 500 volunteers, but there is always a need for additional spotters, especially in remote and sparsely populated areas. If you are interested, please contact the Grand Junction office via telephone at 970-243-7007 or via e-mail at wxgjt@noaa.gov.
Below you'll find the storm spotter reporting checklist. When submitting a report: 'T.E.L.' us the (T)ime, (E)vent and (L)ocation.
Storm spotting reporting checklist
The NWS assembles severe weather and flood data related to incidents that cause property damage, injuries, deaths or hazardous conditions. The information is posted in the Storm Events Database, which is available from the National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) .
The NWS conducts formal Storm Damage Surveys on specific incidents and determines what phenomena may have caused the damage and/or injuries and/or deaths. Investigation of certain elements includes wind, hail, tornadoes and floods to assess the strength of the incident (e.g. windspeed and property damage to rank tornadoes on the Enhanced Fujita Scale). Local events of notable significance are published on the Grand Junction website here . Check out our map tour of some impactful events across the region below.
Other valuable websites regarding storm data include:
The NWS collects weather observations from a variety of federal, state and private organizations. Temperature and precipitation observations from eastern Utah and western Colorado are available twice daily on the Regional Temperature and Precipitation Summary (RTP) product. Nationwide observations can also be mapped on the Detailed Hazards Viewer from the NWS by clicking on the "Observations" tab.
Weather Observations Plotted on Detailed Hazards Viewer
Twice a day, seven days a week, nearly 900 stations around the world (including at the NWS WFO in Grand Junction) release weather balloons into the atmosphere to obtain upper air weather information. (Click here for a map of stations in the U.S.) Under the helium or hydrogen-filled balloon a small instrument, called a radiosonde, dangles on a string broadcasting continuous weather data back to the launch site. The radiosonde consists of a radio transmitter, GPS, temperature sensor, humidity sensor, and pressure sensor. The winds aloft are computed from the measured elevations and location of the radiosonde at a given pressure (recall pressure decreases with elevation). The height of the balloon is also calculated. So, from this simple instrument, the complete temperature, moisture, wind and pressure field in the vicinity of the launch station can be obtained during its two hour journey to nearly 100,000 feet up into the atmosphere.
The following are links for accessing various weather observation systems including Doppler Radar, satellite information and more.
The NWS operates many instruments to measure weather and hydrologic elements such as moisture, wind, river stage, and precipitation. A partial list of these instruments follows:
List of common equipment used by the NWS
The NWS strives to use the latest technologies available to disseminate climate, water and weather information in gridded, graphical and text form. Information on the NWS's warning dissemination can be found here .
The NWS vision for communicating information to users is to:
Many of the NWS data sets are available in formats that are able to be imported directly into Geographic Information Systems (GIS) or your own custom map viewers or webpages. Access the NWS GIS portal here .
Broadcasting accurate and timely weather information is a crucial aspect of the NWS mission and NOAA Weather Radio All Hazards (NWR) is a primary communication link to NWS customers. NWR is a nationwide network of radio stations broadcasting continuous weather information. NWR broadcasts official NWS warnings, watches, forecasts, and other hazard information 24 hours a day on over 1,000 NWR transmitters to 90% of the country’s population. The Grand Junction WFO maintains eight transmitters providing NWR coverage for eastern Utah and western Colorado. Additionally, the Colorado Department of Transportation (CDOT) maintains a network of AM and FM stations that transmit the NWR broadcasts to parts of Colorado.
NWR is an "All Hazards" radio network, making it the only official source for comprehensive weather and emergency information. NWR also broadcasts warning and post-incident information for all types of hazards, including natural (e.g. earthquakes or avalanches), environmental (e.g. chemical releases or oil spills), and public safety (e.g. AMBER alerts or 911 Telephone outages).
Learn more about NWR by visiting the NWR website . Maps of the transmitters in the Grand Junction forecast area and the CDOT AM/FM repeater stations can be found below.
WFO Grand Junction NWR Transmitters
Colorado Department of Transportation (CDOT) AM/FM Repeater Stations (Right)
Imagine this: You’re driving down the highway, humming along to your favorite tunes, when the cell phone stowed in your bag suddenly makes a strange noise. To investigate, you take the next exit and safely pull over to check the screen. Good thing you did: Your phone just alerted you to a tornado a few miles away in same county you’re driving through. Sound plausible? It is. America’s wireless industry is helping to build a Weather-Ready Nation through a nationwide text emergency alert system, called Wireless Emergency Alerts (WEA), which will warn you when weather threatens. No signup is required! Alerts are sent automatically to WEA-capable phones during an emergency.
For more information on NWS WEA, visit https://www.weather.gov/wrn/wea. Or, see this handy FAQ sheet for more details on what kind of alerts you can receive.
EAS alerts local communities about emergency information and warnings through local broadcast and cable media. Local, state and federal agencies generate and transmit messages to radio, television and cable networks. Hazard alerts include power outages, tornadoes, flash floods, severe thunderstorms, blizzards, dam failures, nuclear accidents, toxic leaks or any hazardous incident.
Activation of the EAS system typically occurs when life threatening weather or potential damage to property may occur. Weather and hydrologic incidents that activate the system via NWR include tornadoes, flash floods, severe thunderstorms, and rapidly developing blizzards. The NWS also assists in Amber Alerts and national emergency messages from the president of the United States.
Upon system activation, certain tones interrupt the audio portion of radio and television programming. Television stations may choose whether to use a text crawler and/or an audio portion to discuss the purpose of the alert. After relaying the emergency message, stations return to normal programming. More information on EAS can be found here .
NWS Grand Junction, Colorado