National Weather Service: Delivering the Forecast to You

An overview of products provided by the National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office in Grand Junction, Colorado


Forecast Process

NWS meteorologists create forecasts for a wide variety of weather elements such as rainfall, snow storms, severe weather, and hurricanes. Our hydrologists specialize in how water flows across the landscape and makes it into lakes, streams and rivers. Climate forecasters in the NWS focus on large-scale temperature and precipitation patterns on time scales ranging from a couple weeks to several months.

The forecast process is roughly the same regardless of the type of weather. Our scientists thoroughly review current conditions using radar, satellite and observational data from an assortment of ground-based and airborne instruments to get the most complete picture possible. Forecasters rely on our Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS) to create what’s called an “analysis,” which is a graphical representation of current conditions. Once this assessment is complete and the analysis is created, forecasters use a wide variety of numerical models, statistical and conceptual models, and years of local experience to determine how current conditions will change with time. Numerical modeling is fully ingrained in the forecast process, and our forecasters review the output of these models daily. Often, the models yield different results, and in these circumstances, forecasters will determine which models perform best for the given situation or seek a blended solution.

Typical AWIPS workstation at a WFO

One of the key considerations associated with any forecast is the element of uncertainty. The chaotic nature of the earth-atmosphere system and incomplete sampling of its complicated physical processes mean that forecasts become more uncertain at longer time ranges. This uncertainty is why the human component remains a vital piece of the forecast process; as once the forecast is complete, effective communication of the forecast message becomes as important as the details of the forecast itself. This includes communicating which parts of the forecast are “uncertain” or what might be the “worst-case scenario” if the forecast changes.

WFO Grand Junction provides generalized forecasts for 28 zones across eastern Utah and western Colorado. “Zones” are areas that represent similar geographic and/or climatological regions.

WFO Grand Junction Forecast "Zones"


Delivering the Forecast to You

NWS meteorologists are continually updating the forecast with the latest information to ensure you have a timely and accurate forecast at all times. You can access the forecast in a variety of ways by visiting each NWS office's website. A breakdown of some of the main ways to access the forecast can be found below.

Forecast Points

The NWS has revolutionized the way you can access the forecast for your exact location using the new  Forecast Points website . With this site, you can access maximum and minimum temperatures, sky cover percentage, probability of precipitation, forecast precipitation and snow amount, weather type, relative humidity, wind speed, direction, and gusts, dewpoint temperature, and so on. You can also bookmark your specific point for later reference.

Point-and-Click Forecast

Clicking on the WFO map from our  homepage  will instantly present the forecast for the area you selected in both graphical and text formats. These forecasts are geographically specific and represent a 2.5 x 2.5 km area as shown in green on the map to the right.

User-Defined Area Forecast

You can also create your own forecast for a specific area using the "User-Defined Area Forecast" tool. Why would you want to do this? Say you were heading to the mountains for a hike - you can create a forecast for the hike you’ll go on. You plan on going skiing over the weekend? You can create a forecast for the ski area!

It's super easy to use the tool. All you need to do is click "User-Defined Area Forecast" from the drop-down menu under the "Forecasts" tab on our  homepage . Then, simply add your desired points to create a polygon and click "Get Area Forecast".

Forecast Meteograms

You can also access meteograms for a specific forecast point, in either graphical or tabular format. A meteogram is a time series of forecast weather data for a particularly station. You can access these meteograms by clicking "Hourly Weather Forecast" under the "More Information" section of a point-and-click forecast.

Weather Story

The weather story is designed to provide a snapshot of the developing weather across our region or emphasize special weather phenomena that is ongoing or expected. It's issued at least once per day and can be found on our  homepage , as well as on  Facebook  and  Twitter .

Weather Headlines

News and headlines can be found at the top of each WFO homepage. They can be storm specific, informational or generalized in nature.


NWS Forecast Terms 101

Understanding the terminology behind weather forecasts is an integral part of decision-making. Below are common weather terms and their meanings. Or, visit our  NWS Glossary . In it, you can search for any weather term referenced in our products.

Sky Condition

Sky condition describes the predominant/average sky condition based upon the amount of sky covered by opaque (not transparent) clouds.

Wind

Wind describes the prevailing direction from which the wind is blowing with speed in miles per hour. The numbers may vary in other parts of the country due to variation in terrain and elevation.

Temperature

Forecast temperature describes the forecast maximum and minimum temperatures or, in some cases, the temperature expected at a specific time. Temperature is reported in degrees Fahrenheit.

Probability of Precipitation (PoP)

PoP is the likelihood of measurable precipitation (or water equivalent of frozen precipitation) falling during a specified period in the forecast area. Measurable precipitation is equal to or greater than 0.01 inch (0.2 mm) over a period of 12 hours, unless specified otherwise.

At times, NWS forecasters may use “occasional” or “periods of” to describe a precipitation event that has a high probability of occurrence, i.e., they expect any given location in a forecast area to most likely have precipitation, but it will be of an “on and off” nature.

Wind Chill

Wind chill describes the rate of heat loss from exposed skin due to the combined effect of wind and cold. As wind speed increases, heat is lost from the body at an accelerated rate lowering the body temperature. A Wind Chill Table is a matrix that uses sustained wind speeds to determine wind chill.

Heat Risk

Heat affects everyone differently. In order to better address heat risk and allow you to prepare for upcoming heat events, the NWS has developed the  HeatRisk prototype forecast . The HeatRisk approach identifies unusual heat specifically for that particular date and location, rather than just using a single threshold value applied across a large area. This allows the approach to better account for acclimation and the variation in climatology that we know exists across most regions of the country.


Hazards and Warnings

Example Detailed Hazards Viewer

To accomplish its mission of protecting life and property, the NWS relies not only on local expertise, but also on a variety of special severe weather centers specializing in convective storms, hurricanes, snowstorms, flooding, and more. To view current hazards across the United States, check out our  Detailed Hazards Viewer .

The NWS uses a notification system based on the increasing likelihood that a hazardous weather or water incident will occur. Starting with outlooks, then watches, and finishing with warnings and advisories, this approach provides the public with confidence that an incident is imminent or occurring in their location.

Outlooks - "Get Ready!"

The NWS issues outlooks for weather or water incidents that are expected to occur within the next 7-day period for conditions or an event that could result in a hazard, yet too far in the future for a watch, advisory or warning. The intention of outlooks is to increase public awareness of a potential hazard that may affect life and property.

  • Hazardous Weather Outlook (HWO): The HWO is a narrative statement produced by local NWS offices that provides information regarding the potential of expected significant weather during the next 1 to 7 days. You can view the current HWO for the Grand Junction WFO  here .
  • Hydrologic Outlook: A hydrologic outlook will be issued to discuss hydrologic information not directly related to flooding. You can view the latest hydrologic outlook for WFO Grand Junction  here .
  • Days 3-7 Hazards Outlook: The Day 3-7 Hazards Outlook product depicts possible impending weather-related hazards during the medium range period. The hazard areas are based off of products issued from the Weather Prediction Center (WPC), the Storm Prediction Center (SPC), the Climate Prediction Center (CPC), along with medium range numerical model guidance. You can view the latest interactive hazards map  here .

Watches - "Get Set!"

The NWS issues watches 2 to 24 hours in advance of potentially hazardous weather or water incidents, allowing the community time to plan. Watches for long fused events, such as winter storms or river flooding, may be issued up to 2-3 days before the onset of expected dangerous weather conditions. A watch indicates the risk of a hazardous incident has increased significantly but its occurrence, location, and/or timing is still uncertain.

Convective and Hazardous Weather Services

The mission of the SPC is to provide timely and accurate forecasts and watches for severe thunderstorms and tornadoes over the contiguous United States. They also monitor and issue specific products for heavy rain or snow and fire weather incidents across the country. Forecasts of organized severe weather are relayed as much as 3 days in advance, and they are continually updated until the event has ended. SPC issues a variety of products including  Daily Convective Outlooks ,  Severe Thunderstorm and Tornado Watches , and  Mesoscale Discussions .

Weather Advisories - "Go!"

Advisories highlight special weather conditions that are less serious than a warning. They are for incidents that may cause significant inconvenience and, without due caution, could lead to a dangerous or threatening situation.

Warnings - "Go!"

Warnings are more serious than advisories. When severe or hazardous weather is occurring, imminent, or poses a threat to lives and/or property, forecasters issue warnings. Warnings also include brief guidance on taking protective measures.


Storm Spotter Program

The NWS spotter program is a nationwide network of volunteers trained by the NWS to provide timely and accurate reports of severe or significant weather events. These volunteers report severe weather events whenever and wherever they are observed. NWS forecasters use this information in concert with radar, satellite and other data to make warning-related decisions. Storm spotting goes way back! Check out this cool video that shows what it was like to be a weather spotter in the  1950s !

The Grand Junction WFO maintains a spotter network of over 500 volunteers, but there is always a need for additional spotters, especially in remote and sparsely populated areas. If you are interested, please contact the Grand Junction office via telephone at 970-243-7007 or via e-mail at wxgjt@noaa.gov.

NWS Grand Junction forecasters provide free spotter training in the spring and early summer months. Details are posted on our  website , typically 6 to 8 weeks in advance. You can learn more about the NWS spotter program  here .

Below you'll find the storm spotter reporting checklist. When submitting a report: 'T.E.L.' us the (T)ime, (E)vent and (L)ocation.

Storm spotting reporting checklist


Damage Assessments and Storm Statistics

The NWS assembles severe weather and flood data related to incidents that cause property damage, injuries, deaths or hazardous conditions. The information is posted in the Storm Events Database, which is available from the  National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) .

The NWS conducts formal Storm Damage Surveys on specific incidents and determines what phenomena may have caused the damage and/or injuries and/or deaths. Investigation of certain elements includes wind, hail, tornadoes and floods to assess the strength of the incident (e.g. windspeed and property damage to rank tornadoes on the Enhanced Fujita Scale). Local events of notable significance are published on the Grand Junction website  here . Check out our map tour of some impactful events across the region below.

Other valuable websites regarding storm data include:

Historic Thanksgiving 1919 Snow Storm

January 9, 2017 Ice Storm

June 21, 2017 Dry Microburst

June 6, 2020 Derecho

June 24, 2018 Routt County Tornado

December 23, 2021 - January 1, 2022 Storm Cycle

Historic Thanksgiving 1919 Snow Storm

A historic snow storm brought almost 2 feet of snow to Grand Junction during Thanksgiving 1919. The heavy snow also threatened to collapse the roofs of numerous homes and businesses. However, workers were able to keep up with the snow rates and no collapses were reported.

January 9, 2017 Ice Storm

During the early morning hours of January 9, 2017, freezing rain developed across several valley locations in western Colorado. The resultant ice accumulation created widespread power outages. Travel conditions were extremely treacherous with hundreds of vehicle accidents reported in the vicinity of Grand Junction and near Durango. The widespread impact of this ice event has not been experienced in western Colorado in over 100 years of climate record keeping.

June 21, 2017 Dry Microburst

A dry microburst was reported in northern parts of Grand Junction and in Loma, CO on Wednesday June 21, 2017. A microburst is a downdraft (sinking air) in a thunderstorm that is less than 2.5 miles in scale. Though thunder was not present during most of these "storms", wind gusts up to 71 mph were recorded. The Jam Ranch out in Loma, Colorado received damage to tents and outbuildings.

June 6, 2020 Derecho

A derecho, or a widespread, long-lived wind storm that is associated with a band of rapidly moving showers or thunderstorms, impacted the Western Slope on June 6, 2020. This event brought wind gusts exceeding 80 mph which resulted in downed trees and damaged houses, including in the Craig, Colorado area.

June 24, 2018 Routt County Tornado

A landspout tornado briefly touched down approximately 17 miles NNW of Steamboat Springs, Colorado around 10:18am on June 24, 2018.

December 23, 2021 - January 1, 2022 Storm Cycle

A series of winter storms and an associated atmospheric river event produced a long duration snowfall event across the mountains of western Colorado. Some ranges along the Continental Divide saw over 4 feet of snow with an estimated 170 inches of snow falling at Schofield Pass in west-central Colorado over the 10 day event.


Weather Data and Observations

The NWS collects weather observations from a variety of federal, state and private organizations. Temperature and precipitation observations from eastern Utah and western Colorado are available twice daily on the Regional Temperature and Precipitation Summary (RTP) product. Nationwide observations can also be mapped on the  Detailed Hazards Viewer  from the NWS by clicking on the "Observations" tab.

Weather Observations Plotted on  Detailed Hazards Viewer 

Upper Air Observations

Twice a day, seven days a week, nearly 900 stations around the world (including at the NWS WFO in Grand Junction) release weather balloons into the atmosphere to obtain upper air weather information. (Click  here  for a map of stations in the U.S.) Under the helium or hydrogen-filled balloon a small instrument, called a radiosonde, dangles on a string broadcasting continuous weather data back to the launch site. The radiosonde consists of a radio transmitter, GPS, temperature sensor, humidity sensor, and pressure sensor. The winds aloft are computed from the measured elevations and location of the radiosonde at a given pressure (recall pressure decreases with elevation). The height of the balloon is also calculated. So, from this simple instrument, the complete temperature, moisture, wind and pressure field in the vicinity of the launch station can be obtained during its two hour journey to nearly 100,000 feet up into the atmosphere.

Weather Observation Systems

The following are links for accessing various weather observation systems including Doppler Radar, satellite information and more.


NWS Equipment and Uses

The NWS operates many instruments to measure weather and hydrologic elements such as moisture, wind, river stage, and precipitation. A partial list of these instruments follows:

List of common equipment used by the NWS


Sources for NWS Products

The NWS strives to use the latest technologies available to disseminate climate, water and weather information in gridded, graphical and text form. Information on the NWS's warning dissemination can be found  here .

The NWS vision for communicating information to users is to:

  • Make a wide range of information readily available to a diverse user community
  • Disseminate all NWS information nationwide
  • Deliver critical information to the public, the hazards community and other users

Many of the NWS data sets are available in formats that are able to be imported directly into Geographic Information Systems (GIS) or your own custom map viewers or webpages. Access the NWS GIS portal  here .

Social Media

Social media provides a platform from which content transforms into community, and is used by all subsects of  NOAA  on a daily basis. The NWS office in Grand Junction is on  Facebook ,  Twitter  and  YouTube !

NOAA Weather Radio

Broadcasting accurate and timely weather information is a crucial aspect of the NWS mission and NOAA Weather Radio All Hazards (NWR) is a primary communication link to NWS customers. NWR is a nationwide network of radio stations broadcasting continuous weather information. NWR broadcasts official NWS warnings, watches, forecasts, and other hazard information 24 hours a day on over 1,000 NWR transmitters to 90% of the country’s population. The Grand Junction WFO maintains eight transmitters providing NWR coverage for eastern Utah and western Colorado. Additionally, the Colorado Department of Transportation (CDOT) maintains a network of AM and FM stations that transmit the NWR broadcasts to parts of Colorado.

NWR is an "All Hazards" radio network, making it the only official source for comprehensive weather and emergency information. NWR also broadcasts warning and post-incident information for all types of hazards, including natural (e.g. earthquakes or avalanches), environmental (e.g. chemical releases or oil spills), and public safety (e.g. AMBER alerts or 911 Telephone outages).

Learn more about NWR by visiting the NWR  website . Maps of the transmitters in the Grand Junction forecast area and the CDOT AM/FM repeater stations can be found below.

WFO Grand Junction NWR Transmitters

Colorado Department of Transportation (CDOT) AM/FM Repeater Stations (Right)

Wireless Emergency Alerts (WEA)

Imagine this: You’re driving down the highway, humming along to your favorite tunes, when the cell phone stowed in your bag suddenly makes a strange noise. To investigate, you take the next exit and safely pull over to check the screen. Good thing you did: Your phone just alerted you to a tornado a few miles away in same county you’re driving through. Sound plausible? It is. America’s wireless industry is helping to build a Weather-Ready Nation through a nationwide text emergency alert system, called Wireless Emergency Alerts (WEA), which will warn you when weather threatens. No signup is required! Alerts are sent automatically to WEA-capable phones during an emergency.

For more information on NWS WEA, visit  https://www.weather.gov/wrn/wea.  Or, see this handy  FAQ sheet  for more details on what kind of alerts you can receive.

Emergency Alert System (EAS)

EAS alerts local communities about emergency information and warnings through local broadcast and cable media. Local, state and federal agencies generate and transmit messages to radio, television and cable networks. Hazard alerts include power outages, tornadoes, flash floods, severe thunderstorms, blizzards, dam failures, nuclear accidents, toxic leaks or any hazardous incident.

Activation of the EAS system typically occurs when life threatening weather or potential damage to property may occur. Weather and hydrologic incidents that activate the system via NWR include tornadoes, flash floods, severe thunderstorms, and rapidly developing blizzards. The NWS also assists in Amber Alerts and national emergency messages from the president of the United States.

Upon system activation, certain tones interrupt the audio portion of radio and television programming. Television stations may choose whether to use a text crawler and/or an audio portion to discuss the purpose of the alert. After relaying the emergency message, stations return to normal programming. More information on EAS can be found  here .


Contact

NWS Grand Junction, Colorado

  • Phone: 970-243-7007
  • Email: wxgjt@noaa.gov

NWS Grand Junction, Colorado Forecast Office

Photo Credit: NWS Grand Junction

Example Detailed Hazards Viewer

Typical AWIPS workstation at a WFO

WFO Grand Junction Forecast "Zones"

Storm spotting reporting checklist

Weather Observations Plotted on  Detailed Hazards Viewer 

List of common equipment used by the NWS

WFO Grand Junction NWR Transmitters

Colorado Department of Transportation (CDOT) AM/FM Repeater Stations (Right)