Remembering the "Blizzard of '78" in Southern New England
Known as "The Benchmark of Winter Storms" it was one of the fiercest storms to have ever struck southern New England.
The Blizzard of '78 struck the region from February 6-7, 1978 and is still remembered by many for its crippling impact on much of southern New England.
The storm brought widespread blizzard conditions, more than two feet of snow, high winds gusting over hurricane force, and multiple rounds of major coastal flooding. Life was brought to a standstill for more than a week following the storm.
To this day, the Blizzard of '78 remains the greatest snowstorm on record for the Providence, RI area and is the second highest on record for Boston, just behind the Blizzard of 2003.
The storm does not rank in the Top 5 for the Hartford, CT or Worcester, MA areas but still had a significant impact on the region.
An interesting fact about the Blizzard of '78 was it accounted for just about all of the measurable precipitation during the month of February!
In this Daily Observation Form from the Norton, MA NWS Cooperative Observer, only three other days in the month had a trace of precipitation.
The storm was remarkably well forecast, especially considering the limitations in science and technology that we enjoy today.
Forecasters were aware of the potential for a significant winter storm as early as the Friday before (February 3), including several well-known TV meteorologists in Boston and Providence.
Forecasts began to "ramp up" the threat over the weekend. Winter Storm Watches were issued by early Sunday morning with the expectation of "near blizzard conditions and a substantial snow" and were upgraded to Warnings early Monday morning.
A post-event assessment concluded that NWS staff were quick to grasp the threat of the storm and to convey the nature and extent of the threat to local officials.
This information allowed state and local officials to be prepared for the storm, although the magnitude of the storm was still somewhat unexpected.
Three factors were mentioned that were key to providing accurate forecasts:
1) Computer model guidance (primitive compared to today's models) was accurate and consistent with the storm's track and intensity.
2) The storm was "well behaved." It developed as expected and there were no issues with the rain/snow line, which allowed forecasters to concentrate on snowfall amounts, high winds, and coastal flooding.
3) Observations near the storm were adequate to allow assessment of its position and intensity.
NWS staff were forced to work long hours because of the storm. Many never left the office and worked several days in a row since travel remained impossible, even after the storm was over.
The Blizzard of '78 began as an ordinary low pressure system off the coast of North Carolina on February 5th. It intensified as it tracked northward along the coast, made a small loop off the New Jersey coast, then passed slowly south of New England on February 6th and 7th.
In a 24-hour period, the pressure of the storm dropped from 1016 millibars (30.00") to 984 millibars (29.06"), a difference of 32 millibars. That met the criteria for a "bomb cyclone" which is defined as a drop in pressure of at least 24 millibars in 24 hours.
So why did the storm slow down and strengthen so quickly?
The upper air pattern (500 mb or about 18,000 feet) tells us why. Low pressure dropping through the Great Lakes deepened as it reached the New England coast. This "captured" the storm and caused it to slow down and strengthen. This is a classic pattern for heavy snow in southern New England.
This satellite picture, taken on the morning of February 7, shows the well-developed storm passing south of New England. You can almost make out an "eye" like feature near its center.
High astronomical tides, combined with high winds and large seas, produced a storm surge of 2.5 to 4.5 feet along the east coast of Massachusetts.
Major coastal flooding occurred on four successive high tide cycles, resulting in the damage or destruction of nearly 11,000 homes.
The water level of 15.10 feet (MLLW) recorded in Boston was the flood of record until January 4, 2018 when the level reached 15.16 feet MLLW.
Seas as high as 30 to 35 feet offshore produced significant damage from wave battery along the coastline as well as severe beach erosion.
The Blizzard of '78 will always be remembered for its widespread blizzard conditions, hurricane-force gusts, and major coastal flooding. It not only ranked as one of the top storms of the 20th Century in southern New England but as one of the top storms in recorded history, dating back to Colonial Times.
If a storm of this magnitude occurred today, the warning lead time would undoubtedly be much longer given advances in science and technology.
Public response would almost certainly be better due to the variety of communication platforms available today to "help get the word out."
Additionally, improvements in modeling would allow forecasters to provide more specific details regarding timing of the heaviest snow as well as impacts from coastal flooding.
