Visualizing the South China Sea Conflict

In 2013, China begun to transform the Spratly Islands into artificial islands in order to claim it as territory and build military bases. The artificial islands strengthen China's argument for its territorial claims, while also increasing its military presence, as well as control over trade routes, natural gas reserves, and fishing rights.

The world's interest in this area is imminent, as it the competition over fishing rights and resources results in a power demonstration between China and the United States of America. The conflict contains of two major struggles:

1. Contradicting territorial claims by China, Taiwan, Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Vietnam over islands, reefs, rocks, and the surrounding sea.
2. China's establishment of military bases which is perceived as threat by the international community.

The South China Sea has been a disputed area for centuries. China bases its territorial claims on land discoveries by sailors of the Western Han dynasty. Therefore, China's territorial claims in the South China Sea go as far as the 2nd century BC.

Still, Brunei, Taiwan, Malaysia, the Philippines, Indonesia, and Vietnam also claim territory in the South China Sea. In order to solve maritime territorial conflicts the United Nations negotiated an international treaty in 1984 called the Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). The agreement was signed by all countries claiming maritime territory in the South China Sea. It serves as a basic framework to navigate maritime conflicts.

The South China Sea conflict is driven by political, economic, and environmental factors, that threaten the global market and peace. Control over shipping lanes, gas reserves, and fishing rights impact economic gain of all countries active in the South China Sea. In order to strengthen its territorial argument and military presence, China has began to build artificial islands in the Spratly and Paracel Islands that further complicate the conflict.

China has 20 outpost in the Paracel Islands and 7 in the Spratly Islands. One of the bases, Woody Island, is located in the Paracel Islands, while the other three, Mischief Reef, Fiery Cross Reef, and Subi Reef, are located in the Spratly Islands. The imagery below enables comparison of Subi Reef at the start of construction and after its conclusion.

The creation of military bases thousands of miles away from China's mainland increases its military reach to cover almost 80% of the South China Sea. The infrastructure on Subi Reef, Mischief Reef, and Fiery Cross Reef in the Spratly Islands all include a 10,000 feet runway, as well as hangars with space for combat, patrol, and military transport aircraft. Further, China deployed missiles and communication facilities to these and other islands in the area. The importance of these military assets can be seen by looking at China's increased combat aircraft range. Based on the military bases on the Spratly islands, the KJ-500 (a Chinese early warning and control aircraft) covers almost the entire South China Sea, an area of approximately 1.300.000 mi².

In the 1960s, the discovery of gas reserves intensified the conflict because sovereign rights for the area promised big economic gain. Not only China, but also other coastal countries, such as Vietnam, Indonesia, or the Philippines demand control over these resources. Still, China's claims rights over about 80% of the reserves as they lay within the 9-dash line.

Besides the gas reserves, control over transport routes also plays a major role. As the map below shows, most of the transportation routes lay within the 9-dash line that China claims as its maritime territory. Navigation rights would be less restrictive if the area would be considered an exclusive economic zone or high sea. Further, giving right to China's 9-dash line would result in China controlling trade in the South China Sea, including about 40% of global oil shipments that pass through these shipping lines.

Fishing is a big factor in the conflict, as more than 50% of the world's fishing vessels operate in the South Chinese Sea. In general the South China Sea accounted for 12% of global fish catch in 2015 and officially employs 3.7 million people. Many more people depend on fish to sustain their families, especially in poor coastal regions. China's expanded territorial claim is threatening the fishing industry of other coastal states, especially poor fishermen. Being the small player at the end of the chain, they suffer the most. The longer the conflict lasts, the more likely are clashes between armed Chinese vessels and smaller fishermen over fishing activities. Therefore, fishing activities accelerate the conflict, as an incident with a weaponized vessel has the potential to start to an international incident.

Additionally, century long fishing has lead to the depletion of fish stocks by 70-95% since the 1950s with equally rapid declining catch rates. Further, climate change is accelerating the conflict. The warming waters cause fish population to move without regards to territorial boundaries. Increasing demand for fish is likely to encourage fishermen to follow the fish across territorial boundaries, especially considering the few fish left. Lastly, decades of overfishing and pollution, as well as the construction of artificial islands in the last years, have significantly damaged the ecosystem.

In order to assess the impacts of previous fishing activities and predict future developments of the conflict, monitoring boats in the South China Sea is crucial. However, even with new technology and satellite imagery this proves very difficult. The conflict excludes the implementation of domestic law and makes cooperation between the states very difficult. The most common ship identification system, the Automatic Identification System (AIS), is not working reliably in the region because of their small size and age. Further, the fishing vessels often turn off their sensors which enables them to fish in protected or disputed areas. The video below visualizes Chinese vessels turning off their sensors showing how difficult monitoring of fishing boats is in the South China Sea.

China is seizing power of the South China Sea by building artificial islands and constructing infrastructure, including military bases. The military bases are increasing its combat aircraft range establishing military power thousands of miles away from China's mainland. Further, the South China Sea is of crucial importance for the international community because it houses undiscovered gas reserves and a globally important economic corridor. China's presence in the region is a strive to fill the void left in the global leadership in a post-cold war world order.

Just in 2016, the international court at The Hague has reviewed China's claim of the Spratly and Paracel Islands. It ruled that the islands are rocks instead of habitable islands according to China's definition. Therefore, China's claim of the islands as well as its construction on the islands is unlawful under the UNCLOS. However, China refuses to recognize the ruling. The US on the other hand has called China's actions as unlawful as well, adding to the growing tension in the South China Sea.

Further, the environmental development of the conflict will increase the likelihood of violent clashes between fishermen and Chinese vessels. The depletion of fish stock and coral reefs will continue accelerating sea level rise, as well as pollution in this area. The conflict's environmental consequences are heavily understudied but will influence the conflict in the future even more.

All these factors are crucial in understanding that the conflict in the South China Sea needs to be at the top of national security issues in the United States, the European Union, and the United Nations. An escalation of the conflict has the potential to grow into a war between two nuclear powers with smaller states caught between the fronts, which needs to be avoided at all costs.