The January 8, 2024 Blizzard
Introduction
A strong mid-level trough brought blizzard conditions to northwest Oklahoma during the evening hours of January 8, 2024. This system also brought a few strong thunderstorms that morning, appreciable rainfall, and high winds. The maximum snow total and wind gust was 3 inches (Woodward and Fargo) and 63 mph (Alva), respectively. Blowing snow led to very low visibilities of less than 1/4 mile.
This storm system had far-reaching impacts with blizzard conditions across the plains and midwest, coastal flooding, and damaging wind gusts.
National Watch, Warning, Advisory Map for evening of January 8, 2024
Below are the upper air and surface analyses from the morning and evening of January 8, 2024.
Upper-air analyses were obtained from the Storm Prediction Center; the surface analysis was provided by the Weather Prediction Center.
Forecast Discussion - Morning of Event
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 401 AM CST Mon Jan 8 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 400 AM CST Mon Jan 8 2024 Highlights: - Near-blizzard conditions possible tonight in northwest Oklahoma. A Winter Weather Advisory will be issued for Harper and Ellis County for localized whiteout conditions in falling snow and strong winds. - Upgrading Wind Advisory to High Wind Warning tonight in west central and northwest Oklahoma with potential of 60 mph wind gusts. - Isolated thunderstorms today south with strong winds possible this morning. The storm system moving toward the area will bring strong winds and some winter weather to the area, although the more significant winter weather impacts will be just west and north of the forecast area. The most widespread impact today and tonight will be very strong winds. The surface low with a central pressure of around 990-992 mb will move into the area this afternoon. A strong pressure gradient on the back side of the system will lead to very strong winds this evening. Current high-resolution models show areas of 50 knot wind gusts projected in portions of west central and northwest Oklahoma, especially over Roger Mills and Beckham Counties. With this, we are upgrading the Wind Advisory to a High Wind Warning for areas roughly along and northwest of a line from Erick to Elk City to Taloga to Alva from 00Z tonight to 12Z Tuesday morning. The remainder of the Wind Advisory will stay intact. Rain is developing across the area this morning and will become widespread. But precipitation chances will decrease from west to east later today as a dry slot wraps into the storm system. As the surface low moves east across Oklahoma this afternoon/evening, the strong northerly winds west of the low will advect much colder air into northwest Oklahoma and rain will change to snow in the precipitation area wrapping around the northwest side of the storm system. The projected snow amounts continue to decrease in northwest Oklahoma with the currently projected storm track, but a few areas could receive about an inch or so of snow, especially in Ellis and Harper Counties. Although significant accumulations are not expected, the wind-driven falling snow will produce poor visibilities. The worst conditions will remain west and north of the forecast area, and this does not look like it will be a true blizzard in the northwest part of the forecast area with (a) little significant accumulation or expected snowfall rates, (b) areas of snow will not be as widespread as farther northwest, and (c) any blizzard-like conditions are not expected to be persistent for multiple hours in any location. Regardless, there will likely be some relatively brief periods of whiteout conditions, which is enough to warrant at least a Winter Weather Advisory for Ellis and Harper Counties where it is most likely to see an inch or so of snowfall. The area of snow will translate east through the night with the precipitation likely moving out before sunrise on Tuesday.
Before all of this, although not as significant of an impact, there is enough elevated instability for isolated thunderstorms in the south today. With the strong low-level jet (50 knot winds around 2000 feet above the surface), it would be possible for a downdraft to transfer strong winds to the surface. The SPC Marginal Risk of severe storms seems very reasonable for storms this morning.
Warnings and Advisories
Forecast Discussion - Afternoon of Event
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 358 PM CST Mon Jan 8 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 358 PM CST Mon Jan 8 2024 Key Points: *A significant winter storm will bring near-blizzard conditions across northwest Oklahoma this evening. *Snowfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches are forecast across northwest Oklahoma with locally higher amounts of 4 inches or higher possible in the most intense bands of snow. *Gusty northwest winds will occur this evening through Tuesday. The strongest winds are expected tonight with 40 to 60 mph wind gusts. *Dangerously cold wind chills in the single digits and teens will occur Tuesday morning. Meteorological Details: An intense mid/upper-level low (~30 deg C at 500 mb) across the Texas panhandle will continue to move eastward across northern Oklahoma tonight. There has been a slight trend southward in the track of the low, which has increased the potential impacts across northwest Oklahoma. Snowfall: The consensus among High Resolution Ensemble Forecast (HREF) is localized snow showers will move across northwest Oklahoma this evening (~6 to 10 PM) as the upper-level low moves eastward. There is evidence that these will be somewhat convective in nature (i.e., cellular like showers and thunderstorms) with steep mid-level lapse rates and attendant elevated instability. As a result, it would not be impossible to have some thundersnow. There has already been some lightning in close proximity to the upper-level low this afternoon. For snowfall amounts, there will likely be significant variation in snowfall in short distances due to its convective nature. The most likely scenario (50th percentile) among the suite of convective-allowing models is ~1 to 3" of snowfall. The reasonable worst case scenario (90th percentile) is ~4 to 6" from any intense convective snow showers. There is a 10% chance of this occurring in a given location within the Winter Storm Warning. Snowfall rates are forecast to decrease as the low moves eastward into north central Oklahoma, but some accumulations are expected across the northern half of Oklahoma. Short-term trends will be monitored to see if a Winter Weather Advisory will be needed to the south and east of the Winter Storm Warning (e.g., Major/Dewey/Roger Mills/Alfalfa counties). Wind: An intense, ~995 mb surface low will track Oklahoma tonight with an attendant cold front (entering northwest Oklahoma around 6 PM/00Z). A tight surface pressure gradient, and strong cold air advection (CAA) will allow for strong northwest winds behind the cold front. Wind gusts between 40 to 60 mph are expected tonight (strongest west central into northwest Oklahoma) with a gradual decrease into the day Tuesday (they will still remain quite gusty Tuesday). The snowfall combined with the strong northwest winds will result in near-blizzard conditions in the the most intense bands of snow. The wind will also combine with the cold temperatures to result in dangerous wind chills in the single digits and teens Tuesday morning. Any remnant snow will exit northern Oklahoma early Tuesday morning. Skies should clear from west to east during Tuesday afternoon with some recovery in temperatures. Mahale
Wind
Forecasters recognized several days in advance that this would be quite the wind event...
Forecasted Wind Gusts
The morning of January 8, the mid-shift forecaster upgraded the Wind Advisory for parts of northwest and western Oklahoma to a High Wind Warning.
High Wind Warning & Wind Advisory
Of course, meteorologists were monitoring this storm system closely. One thing of interest was the visible satellite imagery which depicted the formation of the surface low pressure system...
Tracking the Low Pressure System
Surface observations showed high winds in southeastern Colorado, southwest Kansas, and the panhandles with a maximum of 76mph at the UTE Canyon observation station in Colorado.
Measured Wind Gusts (courtesy of Texas Mesonet)
ETA of Strong Wind Gusts
Event Unfolds
It was a multi-hazard event. In addition to the high winds and snow, there was a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms.
As it turned out, there were a few strong thunderstorms capable of producing nickel-sized hail and 50 mph wind gusts early that morning. The area of rain and thunderstorms advanced across central Oklahoma that morning as the dryslot moved in from west to east.
As the severe threat diminished that morning, forecasters monitored the latest high-resolution models that predicted weather conditions on an hourly basis and compared to observations. The NWS Norman office was communicating their observations, weather analyses, and reasoning to local partners (i.e., emergency managers, public officials, broadcast media, etc.) throughout the event via the NWS chatroom.
Meteorologist, Ryan Bunker, gives partners a heads up that an upgrade to a Blizzard Warning may be needed.
In the office, there were lengthy discussions on whether this event would produce blizzard conditions. Up until this point, forecast conditions almost met the definition of blizzard, but not quite.
Warning Coordinating Meteorologist, Rick Smith, provides the criteria for a Blizzard Warning and the date of the last Blizzard Warning in our area.
In NWSChat, we were receiving reports of snow and low visibility in the Oklahoma panhandle.
Near Guymon at approximately 1:30 PM (photo courtesy of Val Castor)
Continued mesonanalysis revealed that the upper-level low pressure system was actually tracking slightly farther south than forecast and forecasters concluded that this would bring more impactful weather to northwest and northern Oklahoma.
Meteorologist, Dr. Vivek Mahale, notifies partners of the upgrade to a Winter Storm Warning
By early afternoon, the Winter Weather Advisory was upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning.
Winter Storm Warning
Meanwhile, there was an impressive temperature and wind chill gradient across northwest Oklahoma and the panhandle.
Afternoon Wind Chill Values (courtesy of the Oklahoma Mesonet)
By early evening, heavy snow and low visibilities were reported immediately to our west and north.
Meteorologist, Alex Zwink, updates our partners as conditions continue to deteriorate.
Automated surface observing stations and our partners in NWSChat were reporting low visibilities (less than 1/4 mile) and very strong wind gusts along with snow occurring over northwest Oklahoma. Therefore, another upgrade was made to Blizzard Warning for the counties highlighted in red, below.
Snow
ETA of Snowfall
By early evening, the strong cold front entered northwest Oklahoma. There was about a 10 to 20 degree temperature difference across the front, and wind gusts were increasing to near 50 mph over northwest Oklahoma. To our west and over the panhandles, wind gusts of 60 mph were observed.
Even the OKC metro saw a bit of snow during the early morning hours of January 9 th .
Pictured to the right is a map of the wind and snowfall reports received from this event.
