COVID-19 Vulnerability in the Millcreek Watershed

Analyzing spatial distributions of areas most impacted by the pandemic due to social factors like age, income, education & lifestyle.

Kayla Barbour

July 22, 2021

The Mill Creek Watershed

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The Mill Creek Watershed (MCW) region is home to approximately 450,000 people and many diverse species of plants and animals, distributed over 166.2 square miles and thirty-seven political jurisdictions within Hamilton and Butler counties. The MCW acts as a drainage basin for the 28.1-mile-long southward flowing stream that confluences with the Ohio River on the west side of Cincinnati. Located in the Interior Plateau and Eastern Corn Belt Plains Ecoregions, the Mill Creek Watershed has supported human civilization for thousands of years with its fertile soils, thick riparian forests, and ample access points for naturally filtered water.

MCW COVID Vulnerability: Unemployment, Crime, Lack of Higher Education, Ages 65+, Lack of Health Insurance

2020 Unemployment Population 16+; 15% - 40.87%
2020 Total Crime Index 50 to 553
2020 Pop 25+ with no High School Diploma 5% to 33.2%
2019 Pop 65+
2019 No Health Insurance

Living in Poverty, one may be more prone to mental illness and financial hardships that impact one’s ability to receive treatment upon becoming ill with COVID. Lower income individuals may also be less likely to receive vaccinations or follow-up care due to the inability to miss employment opportunities, lack of access to vaccination clinics, or other reasons that may be related to poverty. Higher rates of crime may indicate participation in the black-market economy, which affects local businesses and enterprises with a loss of tax revenue and smaller profit margins. Additionally, elder population groups that are uneducated and lacking employment opportunities and healthcare may be disproportionately impacted by the coronavirus and with far fewer options to remain healthy and resilient.

MCW COVID Vulnerability: No Health Insurance, Low Income, Unemployment, Crime, Households Receiving Food Stamps

2020 Health Insurance
Low income $0 to $46,005
Unemployed 16+: 250 to 1,611
Total Crime Index: 30 to 553
Households Below Poverty Receiving Food stamps: 0 to 845
Households at/above poverty receiving Food Stamps: 0 to 39

Lower income groups and the unemployed may be less willing to miss financial opportunities due to sickness, which proliferates the spread of COVID within both personal and professional environments. As COVID rates continue to increase, incidences of petty crime such as theft may rise due to a decrease in economic viability within the local community. Households receiving food stamps may be more reliant on nearby markets and convenience stores to purchase meals and groceries, which are more likely to be impacted by closures and instability than larger chain stores which are typically located in areas that are accessible solely by automobile.

MCW COVID Vulnerability: Case Count, Ages 65+, Households in Poverty, Unemployment, Diversity Index

Case Count per 100k Cumulative – 6,333 to 11,389
2020 Ages 65+ 10.79% to 23.05%
2019 Households below the Poverty level 8.82% - 52.08%
2020 Unemployment Rate: 10.9% to 31%
2020 Diversity Index 10.1 to 63.9

Current concentrations of COVID outbreaks relative to population factors such as age, households in poverty, and unemployment are relatively uniform in distribution throughout the Mill Creek Watershed. However, when Diversity is included as a variable the concentration of COVID is observed to be clustered primarily in the suburban areas of the three southern sub-watersheds. Interestingly, those living in urban areas of Cincinnati proper seem to be more resilient than those living in the suburbs immediately surrounding the areas of the MCW that could be defined as the City of Cincinnati.

MCW COVID Vulnerability: Persons with a Disability, Households without a Vehicle, Ages 65+, Household Size, Health Insurance Coverage, COVID-19 Case Count

2019 HHs w/ 1+ Persons w/ Disability
2019 Owner HHs with 0 Vehicles
2020 Ages 65+
2020 Average Household Size
2020 Health Insurance
Case Count Per 100k Cumulative

When considering factors impacting the susceptibility or vulnerability of an area regarding COVID infection, variables relative to physical health and well-being were considered. Constants such as Age, Education, Unemployment, and Income were applied to several maps with variables such as Disability, Crime, and Housing Density used primarily for comparison. When considering Disability as a factor for susceptibility, the most vulnerable areas of the MCW shift away from the city center and closer to the suburban ring on the northwestern perimeter of the MCW. Perhaps due to structural requirements and the need for a conducive ADA environment which may not be interpreted well in many downtown areas, those with disabilities seem to be disproportionately concentrated in the West Fork and Congress run sub-watersheds.

MCW COVID Vulnerability: Households in Poverty, Ages 65+, High School Graduation, Cigarette Consumption, Population Density

2019 HHs Below Poverty Level
2020 Ages 65+
2021 Population Age 25+ with a High School Diploma
2020 Smoked Cigarettes in the last 12 months
2020 Total Population

When considering the health and vitality of communities that have experienced lower rates of COVID infection- factors such as Age, Education, Health Care enrollment, and lifestyle seem to indicate whether an area is able to remain resilient. Interestingly, the Northside and Mt. Airy neighborhoods both demonstrate a reduced shift in vulnerability along the boundary of the West Fork sub-watershed as compared to the Congress Run and West Fork Mill sub-watersheds.

COVID Sensitivity in the Mill Creek Watershed: Comparing Vulnerable Areas based Income, Health Insurance Coverage, Level of Education, and Food Stamp provisions.

COVID Resiliency in the Mill Creek Watershed: Comparing Diversity, Housing Density, Age, Educational Attainment, and Disability Status.

COVID-19

The novel COVID-19 epidemic has impacted our lives tremendously over the last two years, especially in metropolitan areas such as the Greater Cincinnati region. Utilizing ArcGIS Pro and the ArcGIS Business Analyst, a series of spatial analyses were conducted to identify and visualize areas within the Mill Creek Watershed that are home to those most impacted by the pandemic. With a total of seven study sites (the 5 sub-watershed sites and the neighborhoods of Northside and Mt. Airy), a series of suitability maps and smart maps were created to analyze the areas under the constraints of variables selected from the Census and American Community Survey data.

Prior to beginning my research process using ArcGIS Pro and Business Analyst, I began by reviewing the literature provided within the assignment sheet and other external resources to identify community-based COVID trends. Referencing the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences COVID-19 Pandemic Vulnerability Index (PVI) and the Surgo Ventures’ U.S. COVID-19 Community Vulnerability Index (CCVI). Currently in the United States, people living in vulnerable communities are significantly more impacted by death and disparity as low vulnerability communities have disproportionately inequitable access to health care, affordable housing, transportation, childcare, and safe + secure employment.

The variables used to create the vulnerability and resiliency maps within this assignment were directly influenced by the US CCVI study, and examples of the variables considered and utilized to create the series of maps within this study include: Age, Education, Unemployment, Household Poverty, Food Insecurity, Health Insurance Coverage, Crime, Cigarette Consumption, Family Status, Diversity, Disability Status, Vehicular Ownership, Household Ownership, Housing Density, Population Density, and documented COVID-19 cases. Each map created displays 5+ variables in categories like Unemployment, Education, and Poverty Status being used like constants with factors such as Diversity, Crime, and Disability being implemented to distinguish vulnerable areas for specific population groups.

COVID-19 United States Cases by County - Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center

VULNERABLE COMMUNITIES

Infographics for each of the five Mill Creek Sub-Watersheds

Northside & Mt. Airy

In addition to the five sub-watershed study sites, the neighborhoods of Northside and Mt. Airy were analyzed within this study due to their resiliency despite close proximity to some of the most vulnerable areas of Cincinnati. Interestingly, Northside and Mt. Airy appear to be more resilient than other adjacent communities yet the neighborhoods themselves display obvious spatial differentiation. Northside is considerably denser and more populated than Mt. Airy, and the eastern half of Northside (the portion within the Congress Run sub-watershed) is one of the most resilient areas to emerge from the suitability maps created when considering factors such as age, income, and employment. Households in Mt. Airy however are more diverse, have lower incomes, and higher incidents of COVID-19 cases. In response to these observations, suggestions to equalize the spatial distribution of COVID vulnerability within these two neighborhoods could include temporarily reducing residential density in the most affected areas.

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COVID Vulnerability: Northside & Mt. Airy

Based on: Households receiving Food Stamps, Poverty, Crime, Unemployment, Case Count

COVID Vulnerability

Based on: Case Count, Ages 65+, Poverty, Unemployment, Diversity

COVID Vulnerability

Based on: Per Capita Income, Case Count, Population Density, Health Insurance, Ages 18 to 65

REFLECTION

Upon examining the smart maps and suitability maps created for this assignment within Business Analyst, several spatial patterns were observed that may indicate social inequalities that are segregated in certain areas. Of the five sub-watersheds within the Mill Creek, the highest concentrations of vulnerability for nearly every variable-category were located in the southernmost portions nearest to the City of Cincinnati. The most resilient areas, which are towards the northeastern boundary of the Mill Creek Watershed, have been affected by COVID at seemingly much lower rates, are located in areas with higher incomes, lower density, stronger family units relative to lifestyle, and accessibility to things like healthcare and a personal vehicle. Several variables of a negative association (Crime, Unemployment, Lack of Healthcare, Lower Incomes) were located closer to the City of Cincinnati and especially in the West Fork and Congress Run sub-watersheds.