Mapping and analyzing conflicts in Nord Kivu, DRC

In the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), the impact of the conflicts is very high on agricultural activities and the livelihoods. The Data in Emergencies (DIEM) team at the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) examined several geospatial datasets to better analyze the conflicts as a support to the country teams on better targetting and understanding the impacts. This StoryMap provides an assessment of the potential impacts of the conflict on natural resources and livelihoods in DRC.

The main take aways of this StoryMap are:

• Conflicts are one of the biggest issues which results 6 000 fatalities every year in DRC.
• Main hot-spots of the conflicts are located in Ituri (Djugu and Inumu), Nord Kivu (Kitchanga location in Rutshuru, Beni and Masisi) and Sud Kivu (Uvira) in DRC.
• It's been observed that the conflicts have an impact on the harvesting the crops by reducing the access to the land., and the harvest in February was limited in Nord Kivu.
• Earlier conflict/displacement might have an impact on planted areas for the main season in Nord Kivu.
• The recent conflict/displacement might prevented farmers from harvesting the main season in Nord Kivu.
• We observed the correlation with the increased numbers of the farmer related conflicts with the seasonality related with harvest and crop production as it increased during growing and harvest periods in Nord Kivu.

The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) collects real-time data on the locations, dates, actors, fatalities, and types of all reported conflict data, which includes battles, explosions/remote violence, protests, riots, strategic developments, violence against civilians. Based on ACLED data, 15 423 conflicts are recorded and total fatalities found as 23 396 people between 2020-2024 (last record analyzed is 25 March 2024). These numbers has been changed over years, overall the number of the conflicts and the fatalities decreased between those years as given in the table on the right side.

According to the hotspot mapping analyses by using different period of ACLED conflict intensity data, even though the conflict hots-spot zone remains as east of country mainly Ituri, Nord Kivu and Sud Kivu; the main hot-spots for the 2021, 2022 and 2023 has been changed as in the below maps.

In the below interactive map, you can zoom in by using + to see the exact locations of the conflicts in DRC in 2023.

In the eastern region of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), particularly in North Kivu, a protracted and increasingly complex conflict persists, characterized by the presence of numerous armed groups such as the M23 group and the Armed Forces Congolese (FARDC) and their respective allies. This situation has led to widespread instability and an unprecedented humanitarian crisis in North Kivu province. (DTM IOM, 2024)

Since January 2024, the M23 group, supported by the Alliance Fleuve Congo (AFC) group, has launched intensified offensives against the positions of the FARDC and their allies, leading to the expansion of the M23 group's zone of influence through the capture of important towns and villages in the territories of Rutshuru and Masisi. This escalation caused increasing criminal activities and massive displacement of vulnerable populations. The territories of Rutshuru and Masisi are currently suffering the most serious consequences of this conflict.

The main locations that the highest conflicts are seen in Admin-2 changes by the years as given in the below graphic on the left. The below right side graph gives the highest conflicts locations by villages. According to this Goma, Beni and Kitchanga are the locations that conflicts has been recorded.

The below map prepared using ACLED data with focus on Nord-Kivu, were also indicating that the conflicts are mainly located in Masisi (28%), Rutshuru (32%) and Beni (20%) for 2023 and 2024.

Below maps are giving in Nord Kivu focus on all conflicts' locations (right side) and the hot-spots of the farmer related (associated actors are reported as farmers) conflicts (left side). The latest (2024) farmer related conflicts are also highlighted in the left map as separately as white points. As can be seen these maps, farmer related conflicts are mainly focusing on Beni.

Farmer related conflicts from ACLED for 2024 are visualized separately by focusing on each recorded locations in the below Map tour. The descriptions of the each of the conflicts are provided together with the date recorded.

Analysis of vegetation conditions and cropland extent variations/changes by using satellite images, usually only with the focus on specific villages or refugee settlement surrounding is common methodology on conflict mapping especially hard-to-reach areas.

In this part, we are analysing a series of data overlaying vegetaiton conditions, cropland area and conflicts, per month to better understand the dynamics and inter-relations between these things.. For this, we analyzed vegetation conditions with the comparison of the previous harvest period by using NDVI anomalies during the growing period, and standing crops remaining after harvest time in areas left by farmers.

We searched for answers for the below questions in mind:

1. If earlier conflict/displacement had an impact on planted areas for the main season,
2. If the recent conflict/displacement prevented farmers from harvesting the main season, and
3. If  the recent conflict/displacement prevented farmers from planting for the second season.

As given in the below maps, the cropland area coverage in Nord Kivu is 81 558 ha. Most of the cropland area is in Masisi (43 330 ha) and Rutshuru (20 837 ha). As stated previously, Masisi and Rutshuru are the regions that the number of conflicts are the highest where also have highest cropland (yellow) as given in the map on the right side.

To find the answers to the above questions related with conflicts and planted/harvested areas, the crop calendar is one of the key elements to better analyze the crop dynamics.

To understand the main and second main crop (maize) for Centre region, where the Nord Kivu is located, we used the available crop calendar on the right side. According to this crop calendar, October is the main maize growing season, and February is the second maize growing season. Similarly, the harvest times are November to January for the main maize; March to May for the second maize.

However, when we analyzed the long-term time series crop phenology from different satellite images, for specifically Nord Kivu, we understand that the main growing season is October-November and second is April-May. Harvesting times are January-February and June-July. Since Nord Kivu is located in between the center and north of the DRC, we decided to rely on the satellite-based findings for cropping periods, rather than available crop calendar.

According to the crop calendar and crop phenology, the monthly NDVI averages, which are calculated from Sentinel-2 satellite images, in Nord Kivu are provided below. Due to the high cloud coverage, the only partial coverage was obtained for some of the months.

Based on the above considerations about the NDVI averages, which were calculated from Sentinel-2 and METOP-AVHRR, together with rainfall anomalies data over 2023 and 2024 we interpreted the situation. Additionally, we also examined the rainfall anomalies during 2023 and 2024 to link with the vegetation conditions and changes over time as given in below graphics. According to this, rainfall is below averages since mid July 2023 till the end of analyzing period (March 2024). This means that there is no positive contribution of the rainfall to the vegetation or crop growth.

According to these analyses, it's been observed that;

• Early harvest, as January for some of the areas in Nord Kivu has been observed;
• Despite the early harvest, the cropland area remained greener than usual, meaning that the most of the planted and grown crop remained in the field. (Main crop)
• Similarly, starting from June 2023, the cropland remained greener than long-term averages even though the negative rainfall anomalies (rainfall deficits) starting from June 2023. This can be interpreted as the cropland was almost not harvested till the end of November, with the small area harvest. (Second crop).

As possible replies to the questions that we raised previously:

1. Earlier conflict/displacement might have an impact on planted areas for the main season;
2. The recent conflict/displacement might prevented farmers from harvesting the main season;
3. We need to monitor further to understand if the recent conflict/displacement prevented farmers from planting for the second season in 2024 (April-May).

We also analyzed the conflicts by months to investigate if there is any correlation with the seasonality related with crop production. According to the below graphs, in 2023, the number of the farmers related conflicts (right side) increased in April and May and July and August. These periods are the growing and harvest periods for the second crop in Nord Kivu.

Similarly, there is a big increase on the number of the farmers related conflicts (right side) in January 2024, even though there was decrease in the overall conflicts (left side). This is the period of the harvest started for the main crop. This situation is also supporting the findings about early short harvest and remaining crop in the cropland.

There are 13 IDP (blue) and two refugee (red) settlements in Nord Kivu are given in the below map. Almost all of these settlements are located in the populated areas, except one of the refugee settlement in Walkale. All pf the IDP settlements are located in the Rutshuru and Masisi.

According to the latest Displacement Tracking Matrix (DTM) of IOM, Round 16, since January 2024, the escalation caused increasing criminal activities and massive displacement of vulnerable populations. The territories of Rutshuru and Masisi are currently suffering the most serious consequences of this conflict.

The number of displaced people rose from 1 524 306 on 28 February to 1 689 260 on 13 March 2024 (right side graphic). This increase is due to the multiple clashes between the FARDC and its allies and the M23 in the Masisi and Rutshuru territories. Although the majority of displaced people are in host communities, displacement sites continue to host a significant proportion (39%) of displaced people. (DTM, IOM, Crisis report 16, 2024)

In the below graphs, total number of the households of IDPs and Returnees in Nord Kivu is presented. According to this, 379 291 IDP households and 107 849 Returnee households are found in Nord Kivu. The most of the IDPs are located in Lubero and Masisi, whereas most of the returnees are located in the Rutshuru and Masisi. Lubero Kanyatsi (3 395 households) and Lubero Miniki (3 531 households) villages have the highest number of IDPs; and Masisi Kitchanga (3 453 households) village have the highest number of returnees.

In the below maps, total number of the households of IDPs (left) and Returnees (right) in Nord Kivu is presented by Admin-2. Please move the center line to visualize the both side of the maps.

DTM has estimated that a total of 629 030 individual displacement movements have taken place as a result of the recent conflicts. Of these movements, 216 132 people are identified as newly displaced, while the remainder constitute cases of secondary displacement where previously displaced people are forced to move again due to escalating insecurity in their original places of shelter. As a result, the overall vulnerability of displaced populations has increased, particularly for those already facing difficult living conditions. (DTM, IOM, Crisis report 16, 2024)

The highest number of the households in movements are found in Lubero during January to March 2024 period as given int he below graph.

• Carry out an in-depth assessment of household livelihoods and/or KIIs to determine the extent of the damages sustained and to validate the remote-sensing findings realted with crop production.
• Make further geospatial analyses by focusing on Masisi and Rutshuru, which are the regions that the number of conflicts and cropland coverages are the highest, to find the extent of the land that was not being cultivated.
• Plan and provide support to farmers and their activities to help them for continuous crop production and safe land access.
• Monitor further to understand if the recent conflict/displacement prevented farmers from planting for the second season in 2024 (April-May).
• Continue monitoring and providing updates about the situation with the updated StoryMaps.

ACLED, 2023. The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project.  https://acleddata.com/ 

ESA WorldCover, 2021.   Zanaga, D., Van De Kerchove, R., Daems, D., De Keersmaecker, W., Brockmann, C., Kirches, G., Wevers, J., Cartus, O., Santoro, M., Fritz, S., Lesiv, M., Herold, M., Tsendbazar, N.E., Xu, P., Ramoino, F. & Arino, O. 2022. ESA WorldCover 10 m 2021 v200 (Version v200) [Dataset]. Zenodo. [Cited 22 September 2023].   https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7254221 

FEWS Net, 2016. Livelihoods map of DRC.  [Cited 22 September 2023].    https://fews.net/data/livelihood-zones 

 WFP, Climate explorer, 2024. https://dataviz.vam.wfp.org/climate-explorer 

DTM, IOM, 2024.  https://dtm.iom.int/fr/datasets/rdc-nord-kivu-evaluation-rapide-de-crise-m23-round-16-15-mars-2024 

 DTM M23 crises analysis, IOM, 2024. https://dtm.iom.int/reports/drc-north-kivu-m23-crisis-analysis-15-march-2024?close=true