The Impacts of Sea Level Rise on Camden, Maine

Community: A community doesn't always have to be set physical boundaries around a particular place. Community can be created through a shared sense of belonging, connections to the natural or built environment, or a similar set of values or way of life. Big or small, communities promote communication and collaboration between different groups of people. When a disaster occurs, people first turn to their social networks of relatives, family, and neighbors for support (Bidwell and Dell, 2011). Other literature points out that "social cohesion is the basis for the will and motivation of the people to act resiliently together in the interests of their community," (McAslan, 2010). Mobilized and strengthened communal ties are imperative for success in the face of crisis.

Resilience: Resilience, in the natural sciences, is the ability to rebound. In the social science world, resilience can be defined as "the capacity of a system to absorb disturbance and reorganize while undergoing change to still retain essentially the same function, structure, identity, and feedbacks..." (Wilson, 2012). In simpler words, an object that keeps its central integrity after going through a crisis can be considered resilient.

Resilience and adaptive capacity go hand in hand. The goal is often not to reestablish the original state after disaster, but to see resilience as a desirable state that needs pre-emptive change and proactive thinking rather than simply a process to avoid disturbances (Wilson, 2012). Resilience depends on "effective collective action and local organization before a crisis develops," (Bach et al., 2010).

Community Resilience: To protect and adapt to rising sea levels, Camden must work towards building community resilience, the ability of groups or communities to cope with external stresses or disturbances as a result of social, political, and environmental change (Wilson, 2012). Residents and visitors alike have close ties to the ocean, and there is an argument to be made that the harbor itself is central to Camden's sense of community as a coastal town.

Social cohesion and social networks are often the key difference between more resilient and less resilient cities. Once communities are identified, members of resilient communities "intentionally develop personal and collective capacity that they engage with to respond and influence change, to sustain and renew the community, and to develop new trajectories for the communities' future." (Magis, 2010). Resiliency to any type of disturbance(s) can be expressed by the resourcefulness of a community to find ways to equitably, efficiently, and feasibly address internal and external vulnerabilities that may arise politically, socially, economically, and environmentally.

Sea level rise projections from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) demonstrate the imminent risk to coastal communities from tidal flooding (McAlpine and Porter, 2018). The climate crisis is one of the most challenging and daunting world issues, and along with that comes the reality that the sea levels are rising. This reality potentially poses a threat to many coastal areas, affecting not only the natural but also the built environment, and puts humans who reside in these places at risk (Henneckle, 2010).

Camden is a small coastal town along the midcoast of Maine where the mountains meet the sea. Because of its location, it is not immune to coastal threats. The hardest hit areas will be the working waterfront, a bustling node of community within the town that offers residents and visitors alike to shop, eat, and enjoy the harbor and oceanside. Coastal residencies, where residents and visitors have always sat in awe of Penobscot Bay, are also at risk.

Economic, social, and environmental capital can be seen as the ‘glue’ that holds societies like Camden together. These three pillars of resilience and sustainability are increasingly seen as “fundamental for understanding community-level processes,” (Wilson, 2012).

The pillars depend on one another, and how they interact and develop determines the resilience and vulnerability of the community. The analysis conducted for this project focused on the economic pillar as a metric of community resilience with an emphasis on the working waterfront and coastal residencies in Camden as a hub for social and environmental capital. The most robust form of community resilience is located at the intersection between the three pillars (Wilson, 2012). Analyzing and exposing the vulnerabilities of one pillar does not mean the others should be forgotten.

The hope is that this research will be a stepping stone for the town of Camden towards a more proactive and integrated way of thinking about the nexus of these three forms of capital in relation to the adaptability measures taken in response to rising sea levels in this coastal town. There is great opportunity for innovation when adaptability measures are seen as a way for a community to bounce forward into a desirable state while upholding important facets of any vibrant community: integrity, social networks, history, and culture. The goal is not to change the heart of Camden's community, only to make it more resilient so that it is here for generations to come.

Spatial analysis goes beyond simple mapping to allow the study of the characteristics of places and the relationships between them in order to inform decision making. In this study, spatial analysis using GIS software (ArcMap 10.8) will highlight economically vulnerable infrastructure(s) and zones.

What will the economic impact of various projected sea level rise scenarios be on Camden’s land area and land value? What type of zone is impacted by projected inundation? How can the town confront these vulnerabilities equitably and feasibly to become a more resilient community in the face of climate change?

These questions were explored with the help of Bowdoin College (special thanks to Eileen Johnson), the Maine Geological Survey, and the Town of Camden Assessing and Planning Departments (thank you to Kerry Leichtman).

Take a look at the map below to get a feel for how different places in Camden are affected by various sea level rise projections.

The sea level rise scenarios that were used for this spatial analysis were established by  NOAA in 2017  in preparation for the U.S. Climate Assessment.

According to the Maine Geological Survey, the scenarios were developed with a "static inundation model that uses LiDAR topographic data as a base digital elevation model, and first adjusts Highest Astronomical Tide [HAT] tidal predictions to take into account variability in elevation datums along the Maine coastline, and then adds the sea level rise scenarios to that initial starting elevation," (Maine Geological Survey).

The Highest Astronomical Tide (HAT) is an approximation of the amount of land that will be inundated during the highest predicted tide for a given year. It's incredibly useful for towns to use for sea level rise planning because it offers a visual of the worst-case flooding scenario, and is used as a regulatory boundary as part of  Maine's shoreland zoning ordinances. 

To explore economic dimensions of community resilience, this project utilized ArcMap 10.8 to run spatial analysis using spatial data provided by the Town of Camden and the Maine Geological Survey. The clip tool was used to overlay sea level rise scenarios given by the Maine Geological Survey with parcel (social, economic, and geographic) data from the Town Assessing Department to locate points of intersection. For analysis of zoning in the town (after clipping), the zones for each layer were dissolved so that there were no overlaps and the impact of each scenario could be clearly articulated in a pie chart.

The data is presented in two large parts. The first part contains an analysis on the amount and value of land lost to various sea level rise scenarios. The latter part discusses town zoning, and the analysis highlights which zones are most vulnerable to help inform community planning.

The downtown waterfront is the hub of Camden's community. A place where residents and citizens alike can sit along the water, interact with one another, and spend time in the natural and built environment of this town that is nestled between overlooking mountains. Unfortunately, sea levels are projected to rise and Camden's location makes it vulnerable to those changes.

The results show that significant amounts of land and land value in Camden will be negatively affected by each sea level rise scenario that was analyzed. The intermediate projection (HAT + 3.9 ft), for example, results in a land value decrease of 14.2%. The intermediate-low scenario (HAT + 1.6ft) results in an almost 1% inundation of land. While this number may seem low, the location of the inundation (primarily coastal residencies and harbor businesses) is what is important to consider. If Camden were to adopt a higher scenario (HAT + 8.8ft), 4.5% (about 54 acres) of coastal property will be inundated.

The methods of analysis and results of this study can be used to investigate economic impacts for other locations that share similar geographic characteristics such as development patterns, land use types, and proximity to water bodies. One limitation of this study is the over or underestimation of inundated land value. Future studies must take this into account and adapt the methods for a more suitable analysis of land value.

This project sought to make the impacts of sea level rise economically visible while including zoning impacts to keep in mind social and environmental capital. Economic, social, and environmental capital need to be strengthened together because each is contingent upon the other.

To be clear, in order for community planning to be effective, decisions must be calibrated so that safety, health, the environment, and equity are just as important decision-making factors as financial return on investment (Wilson, 2018). The negative economic impacts of inundated land due to sea level rise in Camden's downtown harbor and along its coastal residencies that was highlighted in this analysis should spur conversations about future development, safety, financial stress, the values of different members of the community, and more in order to make more informed decisions towards community resiliency.

In Maine, the work currently being done by the  Collaborating Towards Climate Solutions (CTCS)  research team in both Penobscot and Passamaquoddy Bays is a resource for communities in these areas to co-develop strategies for adapting to sea level rise and other complex challenges Maine communities may face. The hope is that work such as this spatial analysis project will be an extension of CTCS resources.

There have been substantial amounts of reports released on the impacts that sea level rise will have on Camden. The literature surrounding coastal community planning is even more numerous, with action planning happening right here in Maine. As a collective community, the town of Camden should focus on choosing a sea level scenario for which to plan for. Modifications of zoning ordinances need to have sea level rise projections in mind, such as recommendations on first floor elevation requirements. Examinations of stormwater drains, current locations of businesses, and impacts on pedestrian walkways during high tides are also important to consider and act on.

The fusion of local knowledge, state and national technology and expertise, and an emphasis on community resiliency, equity, and inclusion will no doubt provide Camden a path towards a less vulnerable and more vibrant future.

•  Collaborating Towards Climate Solutions 
•  Georgetown Climate Center, "Zoning for Sea Level Rise" 
•  Wood Vulnerability Assessment and Resilience Planning, Public Landing and Harbor Park 
•  "Getting on Board," 2017 Watershed School Sea Level Rise Report 
•  Maine Climate Council 
•  Damariscotta: Adaptation Planning Study, Downtown Waterfront Area 
•  Coastal Risk Explorer 
•  Building Resilience in Coastal Communities