The Red Sea & the Houthis. A Geollect Spotlight
Maritime assault: Houthi fighters target vessels in the Red Sea. Source: Al Jazeera via Youtube
What is happening in the Red Sea?
Since the outbreak of conflict in Israel and Gaza, commercial shipping travelling through the Red Sea and the Bab al-Mandab Strait has come under attack from the Houthi group, a relatively sophisticated non-state actor operating in Yemen with heavy links to Iran. The Houthis have often claimed that these targets are linked to Israel, Israeli companies and/or Israeli individuals, and are targeting them in response to Israel's ongoing campaign against Hamas in Gaza. However, as the frequency of attacks has increased over the past few weeks, the attacks have evidently become less discriminate in their nature, suggesting that the Houthi's intent is to make the Bab al-Mandab strait unpassable for international trade.
The below map summarises the events thus far (as of 8th January 2024):
01 / 35
1
19 th November, 11:00 UTC – Hijacking – GALAXY LEADER
The Bahamas flagged vehicle carrier GALAXY LEADER was detained by Houthi forces whilst underway in the Red Sea. A helicopter carrying a boarding team landed on the ship, with the GALAXY LEADER moved to Yemeni waters following the attack. The recorded location of the incident was 14:50N 041:55E.
2
26 th November, 06:01 UTC – Boarding – CENTRAL PARK
The product tanker CENTRAL PARK was boarded whilst underway in the Gulf of Aden. Five armed men approached the ship in a boat and boarded, with the ship’s 22 crew assembling in the citadel. The perpetrators attempted to enter the safe room but were unable to, with the individuals promptly fleeing on the boarding craft. A combination of US and Japanese warships, aided by a US helicopter, intercepted the skiff and detained the individuals in question. The location of the incident was recorded as 12:09.4N 044:16.1E
3
27 th November 2023, 22:41 UTC – Missile Attack
On the 27 th November, two ballistic missiles were fired from Houthi controlled areas of Yemen into the Red Sea, landing approximately 10 nautical miles away from the US destroyer USS MASON and the merchant ship CENTRAL PARK.
4
29 th November 08:00 UTC – Military Activity – USS CARNEY
On the morning of the 29 th November, the US destroyer USS CARNEY intercepted and downed a Houthi drone in the Red Sea. According to a repot from CENTCOM, the drone was approaching the warship from Houthi controlled parts of Yemen when it was downed. No damages were reported. The incident location was recorded as 14° 09' 03" N 42° 28' 02" E
5
3 rd December, 09:00 UTC – Military Activity – USS CARNEY
The US destroyer USS CARNEY intercepted and shot down a drone in the southern Red Sea. The reported location of the incident was 13°34'32.5"N 42°34'46.2"E.
6
3 rd December 2023, 09:35 UTC – Missile Attack – UNITY EXPLORER
The Bahamas flagged bulk carrier UNITY EXPLORER was struck by a missile whilst heading south near the Bab el Mandeb Strait in the southern Red Sea. US authorities stated that the UNITY EXPLORER sustained minor damage in the attack. The location of the incident was reported as 13:25N 042:40E.
7
3 rd December 2023, 12:30 UTC – Drone Attack - NUMBER 9
The Panama flagged container ship NUMBER 9 was reportedly struck by a drone while underway in the Red Sea, heading north. The location of the incident was recorded as 15:16N 041:42E. The attack occurred in close time to additional attacks on vessels in the Red Sea.
8
3 rd December 2023, 13:30 UTC – Vessel Attack – AOM SOPHIE II
The Panama flagged bulk carrier AOM SOPHIE II was struck by an unidentified object whilst underway in the Southern Red Sea. The ships crew retreated to the citadel without any injuries or damage reported. The ship was assisted by the USS CARNEY, which shot down a drone whilst en route to the AOM SOPHIE II.
9
6 th December 2023, 07:20 UTC – Military Activity – USS MASON
On the morning of the 6 th December, the US destroyer USS MASON intercepted and shot down a drone approximately 47 nautical miles northwest of the Yemeni port of Hodeidah. The location of the incident was reported as 14:25N 042:12E.
10
9 th December 2023, 19:30 UTC – Military Activity – FS LANGUEDOC
The French Navy frigate FS LANGUEDOC intercepted and shot down two drones in the Red Sea whilst the vessel was approximately 47nm southwest from the Yemeni coast near Hodeidah.
11
11 th December 2023, 21:00 UTC – Missile Attack – STRINDA
The Norwegian flagged tanker STRINDA was hit by a cruise missile launched from Yemen, causing significant damage to the vessel and starting a fire. Following a distress call, the US destroyer USS MASON assisted the ships crew with fighting the fire. The location of the incident was recorded as 13:16N 043:00E.
12
13th December 2023, Unknown time – Military Activity – USS MASON
At an unknown time on the 13 th December, the US destroyer USS MASON intercepted and shot down a drone in the Red Sea, responding to a distress call from the vessel ARDMORE ENCOUNTER.
13
13 th December 2023, 07:10 UTC – Attempted Boarding – ARDMORE ENCOUNTER
The Marshall Islands flagged product tanker ARDMORE ENCOUNTER came under attack whilst heading north in the Red Sea in close proximity to Hodeidah, Yemen. The ship was approached by a small craft demanding the ARDMORE ENCOUNER alter its course. After the ARDMORE ENCOUNTER refused to change course, up to ten shots were fired at the vessel by the small craft. The USS MASON arrived in the vicinity to provide assistance to the ARDMORE ENCOUNTER. After the failed boarding, two missiles were fired at the tanker, with one intercepted by the USS MASON and another exploded approximately 200 metres from the stern of the ARDMORE ENCOUNTER. The location of the incident was reported as 15:03.56N 041:46.56E.
14
14 th December 2023, 13:55 UTC – Missile Attack – MAERSK GIBRALTAR
The Hong Kong flagged container ship MAERSK GIBRALTAR was reportedly targeted by a missile whilst transiting the Red Sea. According to the UKMTO, an explosion was recorded approximately 50 metres off the vessel’s port quarter. The location of the incident was recorded as 13:35.1N 042E.
15
15 th December 2023, 05:55 UTC – Drone Attack – AL JASRAH
The Liberian flagged container ship AL JASRAH was struck by at least one drone whilst heading South in the Red Sea. The ship reportedly caught fire as a result of the attack. The reported location of the incident was recorded as 14:05.2N 042:17.4E
16
15 th December 2023, 04:20 UTC – Suspicious Activity – MSC ALANYA
The Liberian flagged container ship MSC ALANYA was ordered to change course whilst underway northbound in the southern Red Sea. A small craft likely operated by Houthi forces approached the vessel, demanding that the ship changed course and headed south towards Yemeni waters. The ships master initially complied with the request, before reverting to the original course approximately 20 minutes later. The location of the incident was recorded as 13:44N 042:22.5E
17
15 th December 2023, 10:15 UTC – Missile Attack – MSC PALATIUM
The Liberian flagged container ship MSC PALATIUM was struck by a missile whilst heading northbound in the Red Sea, with the location of the incident reported at 13:08.25N 042:52.82E. Initial reports stated that a fire was caused by the attack, which was subsequently put out by the crew. The vessel turned around after the attack and headed towards the Djibouti Anchorage.
18
15 th December 2023, Unknown Time – Military Activity – HMS DIAMOND
The Royal Navy destroyer HMS DIAMOND intercepted a drone in the Red Sea from the night of the 15 th to the morning of the 16 th December. According to an official statement, the drone had been suspected of targeting merchant shipping in the region. The location of the incident was reported as 14° 05' 57" N 42° 25' 25" E.
19
16 th December 2023 – Military Activity – USS CARNEY
In the early hours of the 16 th December, the US destroyer USS CARNEY reportedly shot down 14 drones launched as a wave from Houthi controlled Yemen. There was no reported damage to ships in the area or any reported injuries. The location of the incident was reported as 14° 05' 57" N 42° 25' 25" E.
20
18 th December 2023, 04:53 UTC – Vessel Attack – MSC CLARA
The Panama flagged container ship MSC CLARA was reportedly targeted by an unidentified projectile whilst transiting southbound in the Bab el Mandeb area of the southern Red Sea. Initial reports from the UKMTO stated that an explosion was reported approximately two nautical miles away from the ship. The incident location was recorded as 12:49.N 043:17.E.
21
18 th December 2023, 06:00 UTC – Vessel Attack – SWAN ATALNTIC
The Cayman islands flagged product tanker SWAN ATLANTIC was reportedly struck by an unidentified projectile whilst approximately 30 nautical miles northwest of Mocha, Yemen. According to initial reports, the ship was hit on the port side, causing no injuries to the crew. The US destroyer USS CARNEY provided assistance after the attack. The location of the incident was recorded as 13:24N 042:44E
22
18th December 2023, 08:58 UTC – Suspicious Approach – MAGIC VELA
The Marshall Islands flagged bulk carrier MAGIC VELA was approached by a small craft whilst transiting southbound within the Red Sea. According to initial reports, the small craft contained several armed men. Armed guards onboard the MAGIC VELA fired warning shots at the craft, with the small ship aborting its approach to the MAGIC VELA. The location of the incident was recorded as 13:09.6N 043:03.7E.
23
18th December 2023, 10:28 UTC – Suspicious Approach – GREEN TRADER
The Marshall Islands flagged product tanker GREEN TRADER was approached by several small craft whilst transiting south bound in the southern Red Sea. According to initial reports, the GREEN TRADER was approached by five small boats containing armed personnel. No further action was taken by the small craft, likely due to the heavy presence of coalition forces in the area. The location of the incident was recorded as 12:16.58N 043:56.41E.
24
23 rd December 2023, 17:00 UTC – Suspicious Activity – BLAAMANEN
On the evening of the 23rd December, the Norwegian flagged tanker BLAAMANEN reported an attempted attack whilst underway in the Southern Red Sea. The ships crew reported a near miss of a one-way attack drone which was launched from Houthi controlled Yemeni territory. No injuries or damage was reported. The location of the incident was reported as 14°40'54.8"N 41°53'47.4"E.
25
23 rd December 2023 – Missile launch detected
On the 23 rd December two anti-ship ballistic missiles were reportedly launched from Houthi controlled Yemeni territory. A statement released by US CENTCOM stated that the two missiles had been fired into international shipping lanes in the southern Red Sea. No ships recorded damage from the impact of the two missiles, with the location of the incident reported as 13°49'17.0"N 42°37'00.8"E.
26
23 rd December 2023, 12:00-17:00 UTC – Military Activity – USS LABOON
During the afternoon of the 23 rd December 2023, the US warship USS LABOON intercepted and shot down four drones whilst operating in the southern Red Sea. A statement released by US CENTCOM stated that the drones origionated from Houthi-controlled areas in Yemen and were inbound to the USS LABOON’s position. The location of the incident was reported as 13°54'47.5"N 42°32'06.7"E.
27
23 rd December 2023, 16:08 UTC – Drone Attack – SAI BABA
On the afternoon of the 23 rd December 2023, the Gabon flagged crude oil tanker SAI BABA was struck by a drone whilst underway in the southern Red Sea. A statement by US CENTCOM described that a drone had impacted the SAI BABA and exploded. However, no injuries were reported and the ship was able to continue transiting to its next port of call. The location of the incident was reported as 14°34'11.6"N 42°02'12.8"E.
28
26th December 2023, Unknown Time – Military Activity – USS LABOON & USS EISENHOWER
On the 26 th December 2023, both the USS LABOON and aircraft from the USS EISENHOWER intercepted approximately 12 drones, three anti-ship ballistic missiles and two land-attack cruise missiles in the southern Red Sea. All of the drones and missiles were reportedly launched from Houthi-controlled areas in Yemen over a ten-hour period. The location of the incident was reported as 14°41'48.1"N 42°24'24.8"E.
29
26th December 2023, 09:40 UTC – Drone Attack – MSC UNITED VII
On the morning of the 26 th December 2023, the Liberian flagged container ship MSC UNITED VII reported sighting multiple drones and hearing explosions approximately 0.5 and four nautical miles from the ships position in the southern Red Sea. No injuries or damage to the vessel was recorded during the incident. The location of the incident was reported as 14°41'47.0"N 42°24'25.9"E.
30
28 th December 2023, 15:10 UTC – Military Activity – USS MASON
During the afternoon of the 28 th December 2023, the US destroyer USS MASON intercepted a drone and a missile in the Southern Red Sea. No damage to any vessels in the area was reported following the interception. The location of the incident was recorded as 14°34'06.2"N 42°13'54.5"E.
31
30th December 2023, 16:55 UTC – Missile Attack – MAERSK HANGZHOU
On the afternoon of the 30 th December 2023, the Singapore flagged container ship MAERSK HANGZHOU was struck by a missile whilst underway in the southern Red Sea. According to a statement from US CENTCOM, the ship requested assistance and that the USS GRAVELY and USS LABOON responded to aid the ship. During this assistance, USS GRAVELY intercepted and shot down a further two missiles fired from Houthi-controlled areas in Yemen which were heading towards the ships. The location of the incident was recorded as 13°57'28.1"N 42°30'29.5"E.
32
31 st December 2023, 03:30 UTC – Military Activity – MAERSK HANGZHOU, USS GRAVELY & USS EISENHOWER
On the morning of the 31 st December, the MAERSK HANGZHOU issued a distress call after coming under attack from approximately four small skiffs. The skiffs engaged the MAERSK HANGZHOU with small arms and closed to approximately 20 metres from the ship. Private security onboard the ship engaged the skiffs and prevented the boarding attempt. US helicopters from the USS EISENHOWER arrived to aid the MAERSK HANGZHOU and issued warnings to the skiffs. When the helicopters came under fire from the skiffs, they returned fire and sunk three of the four skiffs. The last remaining skiff escape. No injuries or damages to US personnel or crew onboard the MAERSK HANGZHOU were reported. The location of the incident was reported as 14°58'04.4"N 41°55'22.8"E.
33
2 nd January 2024, 18:50 UTC – Vessel Attack – CMA CGM TAGE
On the evening of the 2 nd January 2024, the Maltese flagged container vessel CMA CGM TAGE was attacked approximately 33 nautical miles east of Assab, Eritrea. The UKMTO received reports of a series of explosions ranging from one to five nautical miles from the ship in question. All the crew were reported safe with no damage reported to the ship. The location of the incident was reported as 13°01'33.2"N 43°08'51.7"E.
34
4th January 2024 – Military Activity
During the 4 th January, an explosive laden Unnmanned Surface Vehicle (USV) was launched from Houthi controlled territory in Yemen. The drone reportedly exploded approximately 50 nautical miles off the coast of Yemen. According to a report from the US Navy’s Fifth Fleet Commander, no damage or injuries to nearby ships or crews was reported. The location of the incident was reported as 14°49'21.0"N 42°03'02.9"E
35
6 th January 2024, 12:30 UTC – Military Activity – USS LABOON
On the afternoon of the 6 th January, the US Navy destroyer USS LABOON intercepted and shot down a drone in the southern section of the Red Sea. According to a report from CENTCOM, the drone was shot down ‘in the vicinity of multiple commercial vessels’. No damage or injuries to ships or crew were reported. The location of the incident was reported as 14°31'12.4"N 42°24'27.0"E.
What impact is this having on shipping and why is this significant?
Already, major shipping companies such as Hapag Lloyd and MSC & Maersk have ceased operations through the Red Sea, followed closely by British Petroleum (BP), forcing re-routing to European destinations via the Cape of Good Hope, a significantly longer route.
As well as greater cost in terms of travel and delays to supply chains, this is already having an impact on the cost of insurance too. Reuters reported that the War Risk Premium for the Red Sea area has increased ten fold, from 0.07% of the total vessel & cargo value to 0.7% over just one month. Given that much of the cargo that passes through the Red Sea is oil product tankers - a fully laden vessel being worth hundreds of millions of dollars - this has made the cost of shipping extremely expensive in a very short period of time.
Re-routing via the Gulf of Guinea - one threat for another?
Not only does re-routing critical maritime traffic significantly increase the time and cost of trade and transit, it also exposes vessels to other security threats, which may simply trade one risk for another. Any shipping heading on a course from the Cape of Good Hope toward the Mediterranean or North Sea will likely pass through the Gulf of Guinea, a littoral area which has persistently seen the highest levels of maritime piracy in the world since the decline of the the threat of Somalian piracy in the late 2000s/early 2010s. The below Storymap created by Geollect earlier this year summarises why maritime insecurity in the Gulf of Guinea will persist and remain a critical security threat to both the region and global trade for the foreseeable future.
Why maritime insecurity in the Gulf of Guinea persists.
The Houthis and Yemen
The Houthi Group
The Houthi movement is a political and military organisation formed in the 1990s. They have been fighting as a primary belligerent in the Yemeni civil war since 2014. They hold Sana’a, the country’s de jure capital, and are fighting against the internationally recognised government of Yemen as well as the Saudi led intervention force. The Houthis are backed by Iran, particularly the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) - an organisation designated an international terrorist organisation by the United States and the European Union (EU). Both the Houthis and the Iranian government follow Shia Islam, adding a pronounced sectarian lens to their conflict with their Sunni neighbours and regional powers and Israel.
Members of the non-state actor the Houthis. Their equipment ranges from basic small arms to sophisticated, modern drones. Source: L'Orient Today
The Houthi movement controls a large portion of Western Yemen, which is the most densely populated region. Estimates of their number of fighters are only approximate, but it is thought to be in the high tens of thousands.
The Houthis do not have a conventional navy – the Yemeni navy was largely destroyed at the start of the war. They are however thought to have and operate a number of small (10 metre long) boats which act as a coastguard in combination with ground-based missile systems.
As well as manned fast boats, the Houthis also have a number of remote controlled explosive boats, acting as primitive surface maritime drones. Source: H I Sutton, 2020 - X
While primitive in design, they are capable of causing significant damage and even sinking commercial shipping. Source: Conflict Armament
Source: Forbes
During the start of the civil war, Yemen’s Air Force largely remained loyal to the internationally recognised government meaning the Houthis also lack a conventional air fighting force. They make up for this with a fleet of drones, such as the Sammad and Qasef drones. The Qasef is derivative of an Iranian design. The Sammad is claimed to be domestically produced in Houthi controlled Yemen. However, experts dispute this, claiming it has Iranian origins. The Houthis are heavily reliant on aid in terms of military equipment, training and advisors from Iran's IRGC, which heavily incentivises them to act as an Iranian proxy.
Why are the Houthis targeting shipping?
It is highly likely that the primary objective of the Houthis is to win further favour and support - both political and material - from Iran. Iran almost certainly provides the Houthis with advanced missile and drone technology, as well as regular arms, ammunition, training and support. As such, the Houthi Group align closely with Iran's geopolitical objectives. Israel and Iran are fierce regional enemies, with Israel frequently targeting Iranian supported militia groups in Syria, Lebanon and Gaza, as well as being heavily linked to targeted strikes and close quarter assassinations of key figures of Iran's nuclear programme, amongst other incidents.
Iran's other regional adversary is Saudi Arabia, who are investing heavily in their own military capability and are aligned closely with the United States and the West. However, the Houthis have been in direct conflict with Saudi Arabia since the Saudi led coalition intervened in 2014. By targeting shipping in the Red Sea and the Bab al-Mandab strait, it is highly likely that the Houthis hope to make the southern gateway to the Suez Canal unviable, thus severely affecting the flow of oil from Saudi Arabia to western markets.
The Houthis are close allies of Iran and have proclaimed their support of Hamas in its conflict with Israel. Iran has a vested interest in the conflict in the Gaza strip. However, the country has few methods available to directly support Hamas and their associated groups. It is claimed by the US that they are therefore using the Houthis as plausible deniability to perform attacks on Israeli associated commercial shipping. Houthi spokespeople state the goal of these attacks is to stand in solidarity against Israeli oppression, although this is likely a masking pretext to have a significant impact on Iran's other regional and international adversaries.
What is the threat?
The Houthi group are a textbook example of a non-state actor which uses 'asymmetric warfare' as its modus operandi. In short, it looks to capitalise on the agility afforded to it by its status as a non-state actor and exploit the weaknesses of its much more powerful adversaries by targeting international trade routes, civilian targets and lines of communication, all while using a combination of basic technology, tactics and dispersing force rather than concentrating it. While they possess missiles and drones, they cannot compete in terms of quality, mass and integrated capability with a US Carrier Strike Group.
The Houthis are a textbook example of a sophisticated non-state actor who use asymmetric warfare as their modus operandi. Source: Reuters
Of note, the Houthi group will not act bound by international law, human rights or to protect civilian life and targets unless they feel it is within their interest, unlike a state actor, who face significantly greater scrutiny and consequence if they break international law. Therefore, the Houthis will look to continue to target civilian, commercial maritime traffic through the Red Sea using relatively limited force as a means of having a disproptionately high tactical, operational and strategic impact against their (and Iran's) adversaries.
Where are the Houthi strikes happening and what's the significance?
What are the ranges of the Houthi missile and drone capability and what is the significance?
What Remote Piloted Air Systems (RPAS)/Drones do the Houthis possess?
The below list demonstrates some of the capabilities of the Houthi's RPAS systems.
What is the range of each of the various systems the Houthis possess?
Interact with the below map and toggle layers on and off in the top right to compare the different ranges of the Houthi's capabilities.
Houthi Missile and Drone Range interactive map - toggle the layers in the top right for specific capabilities
Where are the Houthis launching their missiles and drones from?
As an asymmetric actor, it is unlikely that the Houthis will have any permanet launch locations established, for fear of being targeted by regional or international air power. Therefore, it is likely that the Houthis will have their missile and drone stocks stored near to natural launching areas, such as a high ground, ready to be fired at relatively short notice.
One such possible area that is a realistic possibility of being a point of origin for such launches is the Al-Hafa military camp on the south eastern boundary of the capital, Saana, as this has been previously identified by the Saudi coalition as a launch site.
Operation Prosperity Guardian
On the 18th December 2023, the United States Secretary for Defece, Lloyd J. Austin announced the establishment of Operation Prosperity Guardian (OPG). Operation Prosperity Guardian is a multinational security initiative under the remit of the Combined Maritime Forces and the leadership of the United States Navy Task Force 153, which focuses on security within the Red Sea. The countries involved in the operation are as follows, the United States, United Kingdom, Bahrain, Canada, France, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Seychelles and Spain. A further 10 nations have reportedly joined the coalition but did want to officially announce the decision.
The stated goal of Operation Prosperity Guardian is to jointly address security challenges in the southern Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, ensuring freedom of navigation for all countries and bolstering regional security and prosperity. While a full list of vessels involved in the operation has not been released, defence ministers from some of the involved nations have announced specific vessels which will be participating in the effort.
UK
The UK Defence Minister Grant Shapp stated that the Type-45 Destroyer HMS DIAMOND will join OPG. HMS DIAMOND is already in the Red Sea and has intercepted Houthi drones in recent weeks.
HMS Diamond. Source: Naval News
Italy
After a conference between Lloyd J. Austin and the Italian Defence Minister Guido Crosetto, Italy agreed to provide the Bergamini/FREMM class frigate VIRGINO FASAN. The ship was scheduled to begin patrolling the Red Sea as part of the European anti-piracy Atlanta operation in February 2023, but is now expected to transit the Suez Canal on the 24th December.
VIRGINO FASAN. Source: Naval News
USA
In recent days the Pentagon moved the DWIGHT D. EISENHOWER Carrier Strike Group from the Persian Gulf into the Gulf of Aden off the coast of Yemen to support a potential US response to the ongoing maritime incidents. The Carrier Strike Group is comprised of the flagship aircraft carrier USS DWIGHT D. EISENHOWER, guided-missile cruiser USS PHILLIPINE SEA, guided-missile destroyers USS MASON and USS GRAVELY. Onboard the DWIGHT D. EISENHOWER is the 22 Carrier Air Wing with nine squadrons, as well as the Information Warfare Commander.
The USS DWIGHT EISENHOWER Carrier Strike Group. Source: USNI
What's next?
It is likely that the warships involved in Operation Prosperity Guardian will use up to lethal force if necessary to defeat the Houthi's ability to target commercial shipping, assuming that their presence alone will not deter the Houthis from further targeting vessels in the Red Sea. This may even extend to targeting Houthi targets based in Yemen.
Such an intervention will likely make the Red Sea more permissible to navigate, but will remain a high risk area for the foreseeable future, certainly for as long as Israel's operation within Gaza continues at such high intensity. While the presence of an international maritime task force will lead to a likely decrease of commercial vessels being targeted, it is unlikely that it will prevent this from happening altogether. If the Houthis continue to intend to target vessels in the Red Sea, it is highly likely they will use their asymmetric advantage to find novel ways to do so, such as increasing the use of amphibious operations against selected targets.
