This StoryMap was prepared by the New Jersey Climate Change Resource Center (NJCCRC) for Groundwork Elizabeth. NJCCRC works with organizations and municipalities to assess local vulnerabilities to climate change. The maps included are intended to inform the community about potential risks from future impacts of climate change. Groundwork Elizabeth currently has a number of projects that involve Elizabeth residents in the response to climate change related hazards, including urban gardening and tree planting.

Increasing concentrations of greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere are causing a number of irregularities in global weather patterns. From more frequent and intense natural disasters, to flooding and droughts, there are many aspects of climate change that are already impacting daily life. These impacts are expected to amplify in the coming decades. New Jersey in particular faces a number of risks due to its many populated coastal cities. The recent State of the Climate report released by Rutgers University indicates that New Jersey is already facing impacts due to sea level rise and extreme heat that are far greater than the global average  ^[1] .

This StoryMap includes maps of current and potential future scenarios for the city of Elizabeth, with a focus on flooding and extreme heat. The results of the mapping highlight the inequitable distribution of impacts throughout the city. Future city planning activities must prioritize areas and populations that are most at risk and develop adaptations to climate risks moving forward.

 ^{[1]    https://njclimateresourcecenter.rutgers.edu/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/State-of-the-Climate-2022-042423.pdf}  

Elizabeth's unique geography makes it particularly vulnerable to flooding risks. The coastal areas of the city are threatened by high-tides and storm surges while areas near the Elizabeth River are impacted by overflow during heavy rainfall. Low-lying areas and impervious surfaces, meaning surfaces like concrete which do not absorb water, cause the more urbanized and densely developed areas of the city to be threatened during storms as well.

Hurricane Ida in 2021 caused severe flooding throughout the city and left a deep impact on Elizabeth's residents. With four fatalities, hundreds of people displaced from their homes, and thousands of others impacted by the storm, it was clear Elizabeth had a long way to go to properly adapt to storms.

The map below uses data from the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). FEMA maps flood risks for communities based on the likelihood of a particular flood event occurring on an annual basis. The level of inundation possible with the FEMA 1% annual chance flood (100-year flood) is known as the Base Flood Elevation and it is used to determine insurance rates as well as assist with local rulemaking regarding residential and commercial development. The Regulatory Floodway refers to the area surrounding the rivers that must be reserved to discharge the base flood. A 500-year storm has a 0.2% likelihood of occurring each year and is also included below. Though FEMA maps are a good indicator of current flooding, they are based on historic flood data and do not take into account scientific projections for future flooding as a result of, for example, sea-level rise, increased impervious cover, and changes in precipitation patterns.

Latest scientific guidance from the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection (NJDEP) recommends that municipalities attempting to assess flood risk use the year 2100 as a planning horizon with a moderate greenhouse gas emission scenario and a probability of sea level rise exceedance less then 17%, which translates to a sea level rise (SLR) of 5 feet used for our main analysis. Depending on the degree of decarbonization achieved in the next few decades, SLR could be lower or higher than this level. Moreover, flooding due to high tides and storm surges will be compounded by SLR, which is particularly risky for a coastal city like Elizabeth. For this situation, NJDEP suggests using the geographic extents of the sum of the SLR projections and the most current FEMA base flood elevations. Explained in simple terms, this means the SLR associated with the 100-year flood plus 5 feet ^[2] .

The Total Water Levels (TWL) approach is used by Rutgers in the NJADAPT mapping tools to estimate the potential risks from flooding in a comprehensive manner. The TWL approach accounts for both sea level rise and flooding due to storm surge. The use of water levels (as opposed to specific flooding or storm scenarios) helps in considering a variety of conditions that might cause flooding (sea level rise alone or as a combination with high tide flooding or a storm surge) to reach a certain water level under a given set of assumptions.

The maps below show the above mentioned two NJDEP recommended scenarios for future flood risk assessment:

(i) 5 ft SLR (Which equals TWL = 5)

(ii) 5 ft SLR + 100 year flood (Which equals TWL = 12)

Accompanying each map is a link to the same information laid out within the NJADAPT interactive map, which provides detailed information and a step by step walk through for using TWL for various flood scenarios.

 ^{[2] https://www.nj.gov/dep/bcrp/resilientnj/docs/dep-guidance-on-sea-level-rise-2021.pdf}  

Groundwork USA and it’s network of local organizations are devoted to transforming the natural and built environment of low-resource communities. Therefore, to understand intersections between climate and socioeconomic vulnerability, data is overlaid on a map of Overburdened Communities (OBC) in Elizabeth. The indicators which determine an OBC were defined by the Environmental Justice Law signed by Governor Murphy in 2020 ^[3] . Census block groups which meet the following thresholds are determined to be OBCs : (1) At least 35% of households qualify as low-income, meaning they are at or below twice the poverty threshold determined by the US Census; or (2) At least 40% of residents identify as minority or as members of a State recognized tribal community; or (3) At least 40% of households have limited English proficiency, meaning they are without an adult that speaks English "very well" according to the US Census The maps indicate that areas most at risk are largely low income, meaning those who will experience flooding in these will have a lower ability to recover and must be prioritized and addressed in future flood prevention planning.

This map indicates the distribution of OBCs and overlays it with the 5-feet of SLR + 100-year flood map (TWL of 12 feet), which reveals that the most economically underserved communities will face the greatest risks in severe flooding scenarios.

  ^{[3] https://dep.nj.gov/ej/communities/}  

Unusually hot temperatures can result in prolonged summer heat waves which can lead to illness and death. Other potential impacts of extreme heat include drought, wildfires, damaging crops and livestock and power outages as heavy demands for air conditioning strain the power grid.

The map below presents land surface temperature data for Elizabeth taken via satellite on a hot day in 2022. This indicates the "heat island effect" , a phenomenon that occurs when cities with highly built-up environments (including asphalt, concrete, buildings, and other impervious surfaces) and low levels of tree canopy have higher surface temperatures than surrounding areas.

Climate change is expected to cause an increase in the number of hot days each summer, and in particular will increase the number of heat waves that Elizabeth will experience. Under a moderate emissions scenario, the average number of heat waves experienced in Elizabeth could increase from one to five by 2100. This scenario could also lead the city to experience 12-14 days of temperatures over 95 degrees Fahrenheit per year by 2060 compared to a historic baseline of two days per year ^[4] .

 ^{[4]  https://njhealthadapt.rutgers.edu/climate-cond}  

This next map indicates the ratio of impervious surfaces to tree canopy at the Census tract level. The figure is on a scale from -1 to 1 with -1 indicating 100% impervious surface and 1 indicating 100% canopy. The figures are all below zero, indicating that the majority of every Census tract is comprised of impervious surfaces. These are surfaces which lead to stormwater runoff rather than absorption of water during major precipitation events and tend to absorb more solar radiation. Ultimately, more impervious surfaces therefore create greater flood risks and future adaptation efforts should prioritize stormwater management in the areas with the greatest amount of impervious cover. Mitigation of the heat island effect in these areas should also be a priority.

The Newark Airport is a major source of impervious land cover in the region as well. In contrast, the western parts of the city have greater tree coverage. The pattern of hotter areas within the city shown in the map above is generally consistent with the pattern of higher impervious cover shown in the map below. Overall, the lack of tree canopy combined with an abundance of impervious surfaces in Elizabeth can lead to increased risks in the event of extreme heat due to the absorption of heat by darker surfaces and lack of shade trees.

The Heat Vulnerability Index (HVI) is a ranking of heat vulnerability on a scale of 1 to 5, with 1 indicating low vulnerability to heat. This index was created by Rutgers for New Jersey by compiling the composite score of a number of indicators for

(i) Exposure - including average summer temperature, measures of impervious surfaces, etc.

(ii) Sensitivity- including percent of population over 65, number of people working outdoor labor, etc.

(iii) Adaptive Capacity -including percentage of population that is under the poverty line, cannot fluently speak English, etc.

Census tracts were then assigned a value on the index based on the aggregate values of these indicators relative to the mean for New Jersey ^[5] . In this final map we see that the majority of the city is at the highest level of vulnerability.

 _{[5]  https://njhazadapt.rutgers.edu/files/metadata/HVI_Methodology_Shope_12_06_2022_V2.pdf}  

These maps indicate the potential risks that could occur from both flooding and extreme heat as these issues are exacerbated due to climate change in the coming years. It is clear that Elizabeth faces a lot of challenges in adapting to both threats given the high levels of exposure to flooding and extreme heat that are present in the city. As the city creates adaptation plans, it is important to center the voices of those impacted most heavily by these risks. Our demographic analysis indicates that low-income communities will face the brunt of these impacts. Groundwork Elizabeth is working hard to address these issues through action that uplifts and empowers residents to implement climate solutions and advocate for additional action in the future. Please see the links below for ways to engage in the climate resilience work Groundwork Elizabeth is involved in.