Adapting to Cascading Risks in Pakistan
The disaster riskscape of Pakistan is changing - evolving with climate change and rising uncertainties
As COVID-19 continues, countries, economies and families struggle to cope with climate-related disasters. The convergence of natural and biological hazards with climate change is creating cascading risks and vulnerabilities not seen before.
Where are these risk hotspots located? How much are the annual losses from future uncertainties?
How much will it cost to adapt to these? What should be the adaption priorities for a country?
Find out this and more for Pakistan.
Cascading Risk Hotspots
Pakistan is in the South and South-West Asia subregion under two risk hotspots. One is recurring areas of drought and related biological hazards and the other is recurring areas of flood, heatwave and related biological hazards .
Recurring Areas of Drought and Related Biological Hazards.
Recurring Areas of Flood and Related Biological Hazards.
Risk in a Changing Climate
As the climate changes and becomes more variable - more population will be exposed under these risk hotspots to both natural and biological hazards.
Under the moderate climate change scenario ( RCP 4.5 ), an estimated 18.5 Million people or 8.2 per cent of Pakistan’s population will be exposed to drought and related biological hazards.
Under the worst-case climate change scenario ( RCP 8.5 ) this increases to an estimated 34.1 per cent.
Explore the map below to learn more.
Climate projection for Drought
Under the moderate climate change scenario ( RCP 4.5 ), an estimated 22.6 Million people or 10 per cent of Pakistan’s population will be exposed to floods and related biological hazards.
Under the worst-case climate change scenario ( RCP 8.5 ) this increases to an estimated 13.8 per cent.
Explore the map below to learn more.
Climate projection for Flood
Compared to other countries in South and South-West Asia, Pakistan ranks 2nd highest in terms of Average Annual Loss for drought, and 3rd highest in terms of population exposure to flood and related health hazards. Pakistan is also the 3rd highest in terms of population exposed to tropical cyclone in the sub-region.
How many people are exposed to both natural and biological hazards in Pakistan?
In a worst-case climate change scenario, it is estimated that the total population exposed to drought will increase from 18.5 million in the moderate climate change scenario to 76.6 million, or 34% of the total population.
In a current risk scape, it is estimated 88.3 million or 39.3% of total population are exposed to heatwaves. This number will increase to 132 million in the worst-case scenario, or 48.8% of total population.
In a moderate climate change scenario, it is estimated that the total population exposed to flood will increase from 43.3 million in the current risk cape to 22.6 million. In the worst case scenario, it is estimated that 30.9 million people in Pakistan will be exposed, or 13.8% of the total population.
How many vulnerable people are exposed to natural and biological hazards?
The exposure of Vulnerable population (with low/medium Human Development Index) to heatwaves and related diseases is estimated to increase from 12.9 per cent of population in the current risk scape, to 23.3 per cent of population in the worst case climate change scenario.
How much of the critical infrastructure is exposed to cascading hazards?
23.9% of health facilities infrastructure are exposed to current scenario of heatwaves, which are going to increase to 55.7% under worst-case climate scenario.
9.1% of health facilities infrastructure are exposed to current scenario of drought, which are going to increase to 27.5% under worst-case climate scenario.
The exposure of electricity lines to flood is estimated to have an increase from 26.4% (current riskscape) to 55.5% in the worst case climate change scenario.
Economic Losses
Economic losses from the hazards are increasing. Economic losses are estimated through the Annual Average Loss metric (AAL).
How much is the Average Annual Loss in South and South-West Asia?
Average Annual Loss is the expected value of loss every year in a long span time-frame.
Compared to other countries in South and South-West Asia, Pakistan ranks 2nd highest in terms of Average Annual Loss for drought, and 3rd highest in terms of population exposure to flood and related health hazards. Pakistan is also the 3rd highest in terms of population exposed to tropical cyclone in the sub-region.
Pakistan is also the 4th highest in terms of Average Annual Loss for earthquake, and 5th in terms of Average Annual Loss for earthquake in the subregion.
In Pakistan, current annual average loss from all hazards - natural and biological is an estimated 16.3 Billion which is 5.8 per cent of national GDP. Economic losses in Pakistan are highest from Floods.
But climate change will further impact the economic losses.
Average Annual Loss as per cent of GDP in South and South-West Asia
For the Pacific subregion, the economic losses under moderate climate change scenario (RCP 4.5) will be an estimated 216.8 billion US dollars and under worst-case climate change scenario will increase to an estimated 321.8 billion US dollars. This is 4.6 per cent and 6.8 per cent of the sub-regional GDP.
Average Annual Loss as per cent of GDP of Pakistan
In Pakistan, losses under climate change will be an estimated 22 billion US dollars or 7.8 per cent of the national GDP under moderate scenario and 25.7 billion US dollars or 9.1 per cent of national GDP under the worst-case climate scenario.
Adaptation Cost
As the economic impacts of disasters increase with climate change, investing in climate adaptation is no longer an option but an imperative.
Explore below the cost of adaption vs. annual average loss for South and South-West Asia and Pakistan. Cost of adaptation has been calculated from various sources.
South and South-West Asia
Estimated annual average loss for cascading natural and biological hazards (current risk scape) = 160.9 Billion US dollars (3.4 per cent of subregional GDP).
Estimated annual average loss (worst-case climate scenario) = 321.8 Billion US dollars (6.8 per cent of subregional GDP).
Estimated cost of adaptation (worst-case climate scenario) = 61.5 Billion (1.2 per cent of subregional GDP).
Pakistan
Estimated annual average loss (current riskscape) = 16.3 Billion US dollars (5.8 per cent of GDP)
Estimated annual average loss (worst-case climate change) = 25.7 Billion US dollars (9.1 per cent of GDP)
Estimated cost of adaptation = 5 Billion Us dollars (1.8 per cent of GDP)
Adaptation Priorities
Pakistan needs to invest an estimated 0.09 Billion US dollars for climate adaptation.
The Global Commission on Adaptation determined that countries across the Asia-Pacifc region should focus their efforts to adapt to the new riskscape on five key priorities. These are strengthening early warning systems, protecting mangroves, improving agriculture and crop production, making new infrastructure resilient, and making water resource management more resilient. These were calculated through a number of indicators.
To counter the impacts of climate change, Pakistan can get the highest return on investment by investing in making water resource management more resilient and improving agriculture and crop production.
This will cost 49.72 Millions of USD (0.22 per cent of Pakistan’s GDP).
Investing in these adaptation priorities require information not just at the national level, but at the subnational level as well. Pakistan can prioritize certain areas that are in more need of investments in adaptation measures. To do this, Pakistan can use a composite, subnational INFORM Risk Index which scores exposure, vulnerabilities, and capacities for each administrative unit.
Systemic and cascading risks are now the new normal. The convergence of COVID-19 with other disasters has spotlighted yet again how risks interconnect – how a public health crisis can rapidly trigger an economic disaster. This is what is meant by ‘systemic risk’ and this is the kind of risk that policy makers now need to address.
All these systemic risks, biological and hydrometeorological, will be affected by the changing climate. As a result, the disaster riskscape is constantly being reshaped, so countries need to adjust their responses. Fortunately, while new threats continue to emerge, so do more agile and powerful technological tools. There is existing data which can be can be used by planners, disaster risk management specialists, and policymakers to identify more accurately the hotspots at greatest risk and to identify adaptation priorities.
See more of Pakistan’s exposure, vulnerability and coping capacity at the subnational level:
See how Pakistan compares to other countries:
