April 2025 Seasonal Hurricane Forecast

By Philip J. Klotzbach, Michael M. Bell, and Levi G. Silvers

With Special Assistance from the TC-RAMS Team and Carl J. Schreck III

In Memory of William M. Gray

We anticipate that the 2025 Atlantic basin hurricane season will have above-normal activity. Current La Niña conditions are likely to transition to ENSO neutral conditions in the next couple of months; however, there remains considerable uncertainty as to what the phase of ENSO will be this summer and fall. Sea surface temperatures across the eastern and central Atlantic are generally warmer than normal, but not as warm as they were last year at this time. A warmer-than-normal tropical Atlantic combined with likely ENSO neutral (or potential La Niña) conditions typically provides a more conducive dynamic and thermodynamic environment for hurricane formation and intensification. We anticipate an above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean. As with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season. Thorough preparations should be made every season, regardless of predicted activity.  

1. Entire continental U.S. coastline - 51% (average from 1880–2020 is 43%)
2. U.S. East Coast Including Florida Peninsula (south and east of Cedar Key, Florida) - 26% (average from 1880–2020 is 21%)
3. Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle (west and north of Cedar Key, Florida) westward to Brownsville - 33% (average from 1880–2020 is 27%)

1. 56% (average from 1880–2020 is 47%)

This forecast is based on an extended-range early April statistical prediction scheme that was developed using ~40 years of past data. Analog predictors are utilized as well. We are also including statistical/dynamical models based on 25–40 years of past data from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts, the UK Met Office, the Japan Meteorological Agency and the Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici model as four additional forecast guidance tools. All of our model guidance is pointing towards an above-normal season. More information on our models and methodology can be found in the full forecast on our  website .

Certain years in the historical record have global oceanic and atmospheric trends which are similar to 2025. These years also provide useful clues as to likely levels of activity that the forthcoming 2025 hurricane season may bring. For this early April extended range forecast, we determine which of the prior years in our database have distinct trends in key environmental conditions which are similar to current March 2025 conditions and, more importantly, projected August–October 2025 conditions. Table 2 lists our analog selections, while Figure 1 shows the composite August–October SST in our six analog years. 

We searched for years that were the second year following an El Niño event and had La Niña conditions during the boreal winter of the current year. We also selected years that generally had above-average SSTs in the tropical and subtropical Atlantic. We anticipate that the 2025 hurricane season will have activity near the average of our six analog years for most parameters.

There is always considerable uncertainty with the future state of El Niño during the Northern Hemisphere spring. The latest plume of ENSO predictions from several statistical and dynamical models shows considerable spread by the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season in August–October (Figure 2). However, most models are either forecasting ENSO neutral or La Niña conditions for the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season.  

The latest official forecast from NOAA somewhat favors ENSO neutral conditions relative to La Niña for August–October, with a much lower chance of El Niño. NOAA is currently predicting a 49% chance of ENSO neutral, a 38% chance of La Niña, and a 13% chance of El Niño for the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season (Figure 3). 

Based on the above information, our best estimate is that we will have ENSO neutral conditions for the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, although the possibility of a weak La Niña is also fairly high. While the odds of El Niño are relatively low, if the trade winds in the central tropical Pacific were to weaken considerably, we could still get an El Niño given the considerable warmth that is present in the western Pacific.   

Currently, SSTs are much warmer than normal in the western and central Atlantic as well as the eastern subtropical Atlantic, while they are near to slightly below-normal in the eastern part of the tropical Atlantic (Figure 4a). Over the past several weeks, trade winds across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic have been stronger than normal, allowing for considerable reductions in the extremely warm SST anomalies that were present at the beginning of 2025. Strong trade winds lead to more evaporation and mixing, favoring anomalous cooling. In general, trade winds are forecast to be near average, indicating that the anomalous cooling that has occurred in recent weeks may start to weaken. Overall, the current SST anomaly pattern of enhanced warmth in the eastern subtropical Atlantic and in the Caribbean correlates well with what is typically seen in March before active Atlantic hurricane seasons (Figure 4b).  

We will be issuing seasonal updates of our 2025 Atlantic basin hurricane forecasts on Wednesday 11 June, Wednesday 9 July, and Wednesday 6 August. We will also be issuing two-week forecasts for Atlantic TC activity during the climatological peak of the season from August–October. A verification and discussion of all 2025 forecasts will be issued on Thursday, 20 November. All of these forecasts will be available on our  website .  

CSU’s seasonal hurricane forecasts have shown considerable improvement in recent years, likely due to a combination of improved physical understanding, adoption of statistical/dynamical models and more reliable reanalysis products. Figure 5 displays correlations between observed and predicted Atlantic hurricanes from 1984–2024, from 1984–2013 and from 2014–2024, respectively. Correlation skill has improved at all lead times in recent years, with the most noticeable improvements at longer lead times. While eleven years is a relatively short sample size, improvements in both modeling and physical understanding should continue to result in future improvements in seasonal Atlantic hurricane forecast skill. More detailed verification statistics are also available  here .

We are frequently asked this question. Our answer is that it is possible to say something about the probability of the coming year’s hurricane activity which is superior to climatology. The Atlantic basin has the largest year-to-year variability of any of the global tropical cyclone basins. People are curious to know how active the upcoming season is likely to be, particularly if you can show hindcast skill improvement over climatology for many past years.  

Everyone should realize that it is impossible to precisely predict this season’s hurricane activity in early April. There is, however, much curiosity as to how global ocean and atmosphere features are presently arranged with respect to the probability of an active or inactive hurricane season for the coming year. Our early April statistical and statistical/dynamical hybrid models show strong evidence on ~25–40 years of data that significant improvement over a climatological forecast can be attained. We would never issue a seasonal hurricane forecast unless we had models developed over a long hindcast period which showed skill. We also now include probabilities of exceedance to provide a visualization of the uncertainty associated with these predictions. 

We issue these forecasts to satisfy the curiosity of the public and to bring attention to the hurricane problem. There is a general interest in knowing what the odds are for an active or inactive season. One must remember that our forecasts are based on the premise that those global oceanic and atmospheric conditions which preceded comparatively active or inactive hurricane seasons in the past provide meaningful information about similar trends in future seasons.  

It is also important that the reader appreciate that these seasonal forecasts are based on statistical and dynamical models which will fail in some years. Moreover, these forecasts do not specifically predict where within the Atlantic basin these storms will strike. The probability of landfall for any one location along the coast is very low and reflects the fact that, in any one season, most U.S. coastal areas will not feel the effects of a hurricane no matter how active the individual season is.