Storm Daniel, Libya, September 2023

Rapid impact assessment of the flood on agriculture and livelihoods

DIEM-Impact assessment, FAO

On 10 September 2023, floods due to extreme rains impacted Libya after the passage of storm Daniel through the Mediterranean basin. The Data in Emergencies (DIEM) team at the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) examined the satellite images for this period to understand the impact. This StoryMap is a rapid impact assessment that provides the potential impact of the floods on agriculture and livelihoods in Libya.

Remote sensing data indicate that a small percentage of flooded land is cropland. Even though the flooded cropland may be small, the impact of the floods on agricultural activities could be substantial given the potential damages to irrigation networks, roads, markets, grain storage and other infrastructure. The fisheries sector may have also been severely impacted given that the areas most affected by the floods are coastal areas.

Description of disaster

Beginning on 10 September, heavy rainfall fell along the coastline and northeastern Libya, causing floods and extensive damages. According to the Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System, 5 300 people have died, thousands are missing and 33 000 people have been displaced. The most affected city is Derna in the northeast of Libya where mudslides have affected thousands of people. The picture at the top of this StoryMap and the satellite images below depict the damage in Derna.

According to satellite-based findings, nearly 340 000 ha were flooded, a small extent of which is flooded cropland (nearly 3 000 ha), as of 13 September. The most impacted administrative level 2 regions are Aljufra, Murzuq, Misrata, Almarj, Al Jabal Al Akhdar and Derna. The most impacted croplands are in Almarj and Derna.

Satellite based assessment

The map illustrates the satellite-detected flood extent modelled from NOAA-VIIRS imagery acquired on 13 September 2023 by the World Food Programme’s (WFP) Automated Disaster Analysis and Mapping (ADAM). According to the findings, nearly 340 000 ha were flooded as of 13 September 2023 across different locations in Libya. The interactive map below shows the flooded locations (in red) together with the river network on the satellite imagery base map.

Click anywhere on the maps to interact with the data. Suggested actions include:

  • Use the zoom function by clicking +/- to zoom in or out while navigating the maps.
  • Click on any of the locations on the map and a pop-up window will provide information about whether it is flooded at that exact location, by using the arrows in the pop-up.
  • The legend on the bottom left provides information about the different colours.
  • Use the expand function on the upper right corner to make the map full screen.

The most impacted administrative-2 regions are Aljufra, Murzuq, Misrata, Almarj , Al Jabal Al Akhdar and Derna.

The Maxar Technologies image below, generated on 13 September 2023 just after the flood, shows the devastating impact of the mud over the riverbed and in the streets of the Derna city centre and port.

Maxar satellite image after flood in Derna, 13 September 2023. Source: Maxar Technologies, 2023

The below images were prepared with Sentinel-2 satellite images on 7 September 2023, before the flood, and on 12 September, after the flood. The images depict the extent of the flooding and impact to the riverbed around Derna. These images clearly demonstrate the impact on the city and along the shoreline.

Similarly, the following Sentinel-2 satellite images taken on 18 August and 12 September 2023, demonstrate the impact of the flooding along the riverbeds in the Jabal Al Akhdar region in eastern Libya.

Impact on agriculture and livestock

Based on the findings, nearly 3 000 ha of cropland have been potentially impacted by the floods and can be seen in the flood extent below (in yellow) overlaid with cropland (in green) and flooded cropland (in red) layers. The most impacted cropland is found in Almarj and Derna, the main cropland area for the eastern part of the country The main livelihood in these areas is agriculture and, more specifically, the production of grains.

To interact with the map below:

  • Use the zoom function by clicking +/- to zoom in or out while navigating the maps.
  • Click on any of the locations on the map and a pop-up window will provide information about whether that exact location is flooded and if it is cropland, by using the arrows in the pop-up.
  • The legend on the bottom left provides information about the different colours.
  • Use the expand function on the upper right corner to make the map full screen.

Considering the crop calendar, the upcoming sowing period for barley and wheat might be delayed or impacted in the flooded locations. Additionally, the collapsed dams in Derna might have an impact on the irrigation system and crop production.

Livestock density layers have been visualized with flood extent for cattle, goats and sheep, separately, to assess the potential impact to the areas with high livestock density. Sheep and goats seem to be more commonly reared in the flood-affected areas compared to cattle.

In order to see clearly, please click on any of the locations on the map and a pop-up window will provide information about whether it is flooded at that exact location and the number of animals (cattle, goat and sheep) at that location.

Impact on infrastructure

In the below map, the irrigated areas (in light purple) are provided in broad resolution together with the major dams (in orange), and cropland (in green). The flood extent (in red) is also visible. In order to better visualize the flooded cropland, please use the zoom-in function by hovering over the red area. As indicated in the map, almost all of the agricultural production areas are irrigated. The flood extent, especially in Derna region, might be heavily impacted considering the damaged dams. There is particular concern about the alleged damage to the Wadi Darna, Wadi Abou Mansour and Wadi Mourkos dams. As it is clear in the maps below, the dams are above the major crop areas.

To interact with the map below:

  • Use the zoom function by clicking +/- to zoom in or out while navigating the maps.  
  • Click on any of the locations on the map and a pop-up window will provide information about whether that exact location is flooded, if it is cropland and all other infrastructure data provided in the map. Please use the arrows (>) in the pop-up.
  • The legend on the bottom left provides information about the different colours.
  • Use the expand function on the upper right corner to make the map full screen.

Global map of irrigated areas, wadis, Great man-made river, reservoirs and dams. Sources: AQUSTAT, FAO, 2023. FAO Libya, 2023.

The flood extent has also been overlaid with the road infrastructure and airports in different sizes (see map below). The impact on these infrastructures may affect access to market channels which connect producing areas to main areas of consumption.

Potential damages to roads, markets, grain storage and other infrastructure, such as dams and irrigation channels, are very important especially in a post-harvest context when farmers sell their production on the markets. This needs to be further explored over a second phase with detailed analyses including field data.

Assessments should also explore any damages to pipes from the Great Man-Made River, which supplies fresh water from the Nubian Sandstone Aquifer System fossil aquifer across Libya.

Main roads and airports. Source: HDX OCHA, 2023.

Impact on livelihoods

The livelihood zoning map of Libya based on the CLEAR approach. Source: WFP, 2022.

According to the analyses, the livelihood zones most impacted by the floods are in the Akhdar plateau, Jabal Al Akhdar and the Cyrenaica border area, followed by the Gulf of Sidra and the Tripolitania coast. Zone descriptions and the likely impacts of flooding on livelihoods in these zones are detailed below.

In the affected areas, the main livelihoods are agriculture, livestock or trade. As these are all coastal zones, fisheries could also be a main source of livelihood for a large portion of the population.

Food security implications

According to FAO’s Global Information and Early Warning System (GIEWS), in July 2023, Libya was already listed as one of the countries in food crisis and requiring external assistance for food. GIEWS indicated that Libya was expected to lack the resources to deal with critical problems of food insecurity. The reasons given were civil insecurity, economic and political instability and high food prices. The latest flooding will certainly worsen the situation in country.

The areas that were affected by the flood in Jabal Al Akhdar, the Cyrenaica border and Tripolitania coast area were classified as mostly food secure based on the latest Multi-Sector Needs Assessment conducted in 2021 (using the food consumption score). The areas in the Akhdar plateau were the least food secure and those in the Gulf of Sidra were moderately food secure.

Recommendations

  • Conduct an in-depth household livelihoods assessment to determine the extent of damage on agricultural livelihoods at household level in all flood affected areas.
  • Initiate a damage and loss assessment as soon as possible to inform recovery programming.
  • Analyse the potential damages to roads, markets, grain storage and other infrastructure, all of which are very important, especially, in a post-harvest context when farmers sell their production on the markets.
  • Determine priority locations to land clean rainfed winter crops ahead of sowing by analyzing the detail extent.
  • Assess the extent of the damages to the dams and how this damage will affect irrigation and irrigation networks.

References

FAO. 2023. Geo-referenced database on dams. In: FAO. Rome. [Cited 14 September 2023].  fao.org/aquastat/en/databases/dams 

FAO, 2023. Global map of irrigated areas. In: FAO. [Cited 14 September 2023].  fao.org/aquastat/en/geospatial-information/global-maps-irrigated-areas 

The boundaries and names shown and the designations used on these maps do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers and boundaries. Dashed lines on maps represent approximate border lines for which there may not yet be full agreement.

DIEM (data-in-emergencies@fao.org)

Maxar satellite image after flood in Derna, 13 September 2023. Source: Maxar Technologies, 2023

The livelihood zoning map of Libya based on the CLEAR approach. Source: WFP, 2022.