Spatial Understandings of NYC Shooting Incidents

Police officers stand outside an apartment building in the Bronx where a man was fatally shot. Photo by David Dee Delgato/The New York Times

New York City has long been plagued by gun violence, with thousands of shooting incidents occurring in communities throughout the five boroughs. In recent years, researchers and policymakers have sought to gain a better understanding of the spatial patterns of such incidents in order to identify areas of high concentration and target interventions. With the current technological advancements that exist today, transdisciplinary approaches that incorporate methods in social work, computer science, and design, are considered necessary when it comes to effectively addressing gun violence (Merchant, Patton, & Kannry, 2022). Using technologies in digital mapping and data science, this geographic study of NYC gun violence incorporates a similar approach by analyzing shooting incidents across different spatial locations, over time, and in relation to the demographics of victims and perpetrators. The relationship between shooting incidents and education, as well as the availability of mental health services in the areas where incidents occurred, will also be explored within this study. Data on every known NYC shooting incident between 2006 and 2022 were gathered from the New York Police Department, including the characteristics of victims and perpetrators of each incident, in order to create the visualizations of this study. Through a multifaceted spatial analysis of shooting incidents, these efforts aim to provide a more comprehensive picture of the problem at hand to better inform strategies for reducing gun violence and improving the public safety of NYC communities.

When visualizing shooting incidents within each NYC borough, it is evident that gun violence is a prominent issue for all five regions of the city, especially when it comes to Brooklyn and the Bronx. Each point on the map represents a single shooting incident dating back from 2006 to 2022 and is categorized by its corresponding location. This creates a broad overview and visualization of shooting incidents while also drawing attention to the city's long history of gun violence.

Shooting incidents were also traced over time based on the total count of incidents from 2006 to 2022 categorized by month. The graph displays a positive trend line through the months with the lowest total count being February with 382 shooting incidents and the highest total count being July with 483 shooting incidents. While total counts lie within a similar range, it is interesting to note the drop in total shooting incidents during the month of February, the sudden increase going into the month of March, and the peak between the months of July and August during the summer time.

These maps serve to visualize the city's gun violence through three distinct time periods: 2006 to 2011, 2012 to 2017, and 2018 to 2022. When comparing all three time periods against each other, there are slight variations in shooting incidents. Between the maps of gun violence from 2006 to 2011 and 2012 to 2017, there were fewer recorded incidents from 2012 to 2017 than the number of incidents that occurred from 2006 to 2011. This observation is further supported by the data indicating a total of 11,580 observed shootings between 2006 and 2011, and 8,142 shootings between 2012 and 2017. The trend of decreasing counts of gun violence continues into the map of 2018 to 2022 with fewer shooting incidents being visible compared to the map of 2012 to 2017, along with having a total of 5,874 shootings based on the data. On the other hand, areas of high concentration for gun violence remain consistent through all three time periods, suggesting that core issues of gun violence have not been improved within these regions, such as the center of Brooklyn and the south side of the Bronx.

The visualization of shooting incidents by racial demographic shows a high count of Black victims across NYC. Black Hispanics and White Hispanics also seem to be among the higher population count of victims, especially in the Bronx. This could partly be contributed to the Bronx having one of the largest Latin populations among all boroughs (Hispanic, 8). In terms of the racial demographic of other shooting victims, such as Asian/Pacific Islander and White, they are much more sparse compared to Black and Hispanic victims with American Indian/Alaskan Native seeming to have the lowest count of shooting incidents alongside unknown racial identities.

The graph of shooting victim age groups and race support the fact that Black people represent the race with the highest count of victims, followed by White and Black Hispanics. Furthermore, the most frequent age group of victims was 25 to 44 years old, followed by 18 to 24 years old.

On the other side of shooting incidents, there is a notable difference in the age group of perpetrators compared to victims. Most perpetrators were found to be in the age group of 18 to 24 years old compared to most victims being 25 to 44 years old. In terms of the racial demographic of perpetrators, it is significantly similar to the racial demographic of victims.

Education level is one of the many socioeconomic factors that contribute to gun violence, especially when it comes to communities with disparities in educational and economic opportunities (Johnson). When visualizing the bivariate map of the number of high school graduates and shooting incidents per borough, there is an inverse relationship between education level and shootings. Most of the boroughs either have a higher number of high school graduates and a lower number of shooting incidents, or vice versa. The one exception to this pattern is Queens as they have a moderate number of shootings with a high number of high school graduates.

The relationship between mental health and shooting incidents is important to consider when strategizing gun violence intervention. Not only does exposure to gun violence lead to mental health issues, but mental health issues can lead to gun violence as well (Vasan). This bivariate map visualizes access to mental health care against shootings based on the number of mental health services and shooting incidents in each borough. The map shows that Brooklyn has a moderate number of mental health services and a high number of shootings, while Manhattan has a high number of mental health services with a low number of shootings, suggesting a possible inverse relationship between the two variables.

New York City has experienced a significant amount of gun violence across space and time, especially when it comes to Brooklyn and the Bronx as the study revealed a reoccurring pattern of high shooting incidents between different measurements for these boroughs. Through the use of several geographic visualizations and graphs, the study was able to illustrate the spatiotemporal patterns of shooting incidents and identify areas of high concentration. When examining shooting incidents through the months, there was a notable seasonal trend of higher shooting incidents during the summer months. In terms of the demographics of gun violence, Black people were the population with both the highest number of victims and perpetrators. Furthermore, mapping the relationship between shooting incidents and education, as well as the availability of mental health services in the areas where incidents occurred, revealed a potential inverse relationship between the respective variables. These spatial findings provide valuable insights into the problem of gun violence in New York City and can lead to possible strategies for reducing violence for the safety of New York City's communities. By forming greater spatial understandings of NYC gun violence, researchers and policymakers can work more effectively together in addressing the critical issue of gun violence and create a safer future for all New Yorkers.