The 2017 BC Electoral Shift

In this analysis of the 2017 British Columbia provincial election, the focus was on the significant gains made by the Green Party. The 2017 election highlighted a noticeable shift in the province's political landscape, indicating an increased alignment with the Green Party's policies among voters. This story map delves into this shift through an in-depth examination of electoral districts (ED) and electoral district voting areas (EDVA), revealing the geographic nuances of the Green Party's success.

Commencing with an interactive map that showcases the ED and EDVA polygon results, this analysis is designed to provide a clear visual narrative of where and how the Green Party made advancements. Through the exploration of Green Party vote distribution across various regions, this analysis presents a multilayered perspective on their electoral performance, pinpointing key areas of support and identifying potential strategic focuses for future campaigns.

ED and EDVA Analysis Results

This map provides an in-depth look at the overall electoral dynamics of the 2017 British Columbia provincial election by illustrating the results across electoral districts (EDs) and electoral district voting areas (EDVAs). The initial map layer displays the overall Electoral District results and changes into a view of the voting areas as you zoom in.

The analysis process involved aggregating the voting results within each EDVA to visualize the distribution of votes among different political parties, with a particular focus on the Green Party. By using PostgreSQL and QGIS, I merged and manipulated the election data into a coherent spatial representation, allowing for a detailed examination of voting patterns and the finding of regions where the BC Green Party gained significant support. The 'Voting Discrepancy' field in the map popup signifies whether or not the EDVA results matched the ED results, and the '(EDVA Results) Percent Total' field is the percentage value of how much of the vote the winning party of that particular voting area took.

Voting Areas Not Aligning with District Trends

This map highlights the voting areas that diverged from the overall voting trend of their respective electoral districts.

The analysis process of this layer involved comparing the majority vote in each EDVA with the overall district winner to identify areas of political discrepancy. This layer showcases localized differences within districts, providing further insights into the political landscape of British Columbia. Out of 5658 voting areas, 1053 voted differently than their overall electoral district.

Green Party Support Analysis

The next map layer is the result of an analysis to pinpoint EDVAs where the Green Party won a notably high percentage of the vote.

After calculating the vote percentages for the Green Party in each EDVA, I applied a statistical threshold, determined by adding one standard deviation (9.468865) to the mean percentage of Green votes (16.943478) to identify areas exceeding this threshold. The process highlights regions where the Green Party is gaining traction, offering a strategic perspective on where their support base is strongest. The above map is symbolized for the percentage of the overall vote that went to the Green Party for each voting area, while the map below is symbolized according to a high and low threshold binary (above and below 26.41% according to the green percent field in the data).

I also ran a hot spot analysis on the Green Party vote percentages from the 2017 Election results. This visual aid can be utilized to discern spatial patterns created by the statistical data, identifying areas where the Green Party's support is significantly higher than average. It provides us with visual insight as to where the Green Party's message resonated most strongly with voters and identifies potential areas of focus for their future strategic efforts.

The spatial analysis of the 2017 British Columbia provincial elections has revealed the Green Party as a rising force in a shifting political landscape. Through a detailed examination of electoral data and hot spot analysis, this story map has highlighted areas of concentrated Green support, indicating a pattern of clustered influence rather than a uniform distribution across the province. This is visual inference is also backed by the Spatial Autocorrelation report above. These insights not only shed light on past voter behavior but also chart a path for future Green Party strategies. As British Columbia looks to future elections, this data can help stress the significance of localized engagement and the strategic importance of aligning policy outreach with the identified strongholds of support.