Employment Space Demand Model

A key input into comprehensive zoning for the Business Park is anticipated demand for employment space over time. To project these needs, District staff engaged in the development of an Employment Space Demand Model, owned and maintained by the organization and used for the analysis of employment space over time, across an evolving context. As part of the process, a comprehensive inventory of all existing employment space and potential industrial land within the District was developed. The model was used to create three scenarios: one for business as usual and two based on the implementation of the Sector Action Plan, distinguished by a low and high impact on target sectors, whereby District policies result in growth of all target sectors beyond the business as usual scenario.

Link:  The complete report from development of the model 

Key findings from the Employment Space Demand Model project are outlined below:

Light Industrial

• There is ample land capacity, primarily in the Business Park and the Squamish Oceanfront, to accommodate projected light industrial built space demand over the next 20 years, provided intended lands and space are not repurposed for other competing uses. A significant quantity of light industrial space is anticipated to be built in the near term; by 2023 or 2024, supply of light industrial should easily meet demand. This appears to reflect a strong response from the development sector to existing supply shortfalls.
• At the average density of new industrial development (FAR 0.49), 126.7 km² of new industrial space could be built on 25.85 ha of existing undeveloped light industrial land, which results in a total light industrial capacity of 207.3 km² for the community.
• Current constraints on light industrial suggest that the true demand may, in fact, be higher than represented in the inventory and model. Historic low Metro Vancouver vacancy is likely generating unmet potential demand.
• Given the significant existing potential light industrial development capacity, the projections do not suggest that additional land is required for this use within the time frame of the projections (2041).

Medium Industrial

• Under a business as usual scenario there is a sufficient supply of medium industrial land to meet demand over almost the entire projected time frame (2041). 
• Under a Sector Action Plan scenario, medium industrial land supply could be exhausted shortly after 2026. 
• Future sources of medium industrial land may be found at Site B or the Cheekeye Fan; however, these outcomes depend on significant land development activities.

Retail

• There is adequate land capacity to accommodate projected retail-built space demand until 2036, after which new areas will be needed to accommodate retail space through mixed-use redevelopment. 
• Projected population growth and household spending generate considerable ongoing growth in demand for retail space to provide goods and services to the community. 
• Existing land with commercial zones is not adequate to meet the demand for retail space for the projected time frame (2041).
• In the short term (2020-2027), demand for retail space is expected to exceed supply; proposed retail development is not expected to be completed as fast as the demand is expected to grow. There is potential for retail supply to catch up and surpass demand in 2024, though this depends on key large development sites being developed. If that space is not built, a deficit of supply is expected to persist.

Office

• The business as usual and sector action scenarios exhibit broadly similar results in relation to overall office capacity.
• There is ample land capacity in the Downtown, Squamish Oceanfront and Business Park to accommodate projected office-built space demand beyond the next 20 years. In the short term (2020-2023), demand for office space is expected to exceed supply; supply is not expected to catch up with demand until 2023 or 2024, after which it has the potential to exceed demand. However, the magnitude of supply exceeding demand is dependent on a few large development projects, which are in the early stages of considerations. It is possible that these projects will not come to fruition, so caution must be taken in considering this potential outcome.