
Community Connections
Climate Change Indicators

Use the map below to see the locations of different climate change indicators with community connections. Use the navigation bar or keep scrolling to learn more about each indicator.
Click on the map for a closer look at changes related to climate and connections to specific regions and communities
Southwest Temperature and Drought
Background
Although the American Southwest has low annual rainfall and seasonally high temperatures, this region supports a vast array of plants and animals, as well as millions of people. Since water is so scarce in the Southwest, every drop is precious. Even a small increase in temperature or a decrease in precipitation in this already arid region can seriously threaten natural systems and society.
Droughts reduce the amount of water available for generating electricity and contribute to increased pest outbreaks and wildfires that damage local economies.
Parts of the Southwest are also experiencing long-term reductions in mountain snowpack, which accounts for a large portion of the region’s water supply.
This feature focuses on six states that are commonly associated with the American Southwest and that are characterized by arid landscapes and scarce water supplies: Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah.

Figure 1
This map shows how the average air temperature from 2000 to 2023 has differed from the long-term average (1895-2023). Each state has been divided into climate divisions, which are zones that share similar climate features.
Figure 2
This chart shows the percentage of land area in six Southwest states classified under drought conditions from 2000 to 2023 using the U.S. Drought Monitor classification system.
Figure 3
This chart shows annual values of the Palmer Drought Severity Index averaged over the six Southwest states. Positive values represent wetter-than-average conditions, while negative values represent drier-than-average conditions. The thicker line is a nine-year weighted average.
Key Points
- Every part of the Southwest experienced higher average temperatures between 2000 and 2023 than the long-term average (1895-2023). Some areas were nearly 2°F warmer than average.
- Large portions of the Southwest have experienced drought conditions since weekly Drought Monitor records began in 2000. For extended periods from 2002 to 2005 and from 2012 through 2023, nearly the entire region was abnormally dry or drier.
- Based on the long-term Palmer Index, the last few decades have seen the most persistent droughts on record going back to 1895.
More detail: Southwest Temperature and Drought Feature .
Ice Breakup in Alaskan Rivers
Background
Regions in the far north are warming more quickly than other parts of the world, and this pattern is expected to continue. The Tanana, Yukon, and Kuskokwim rivers in Alaska provide a noteworthy record of northern climate. For more than a century, local citizens have recorded the date when the ice on these rivers starts to move or break up each spring.
Since 1917, the Nenana Ice Classic competition on the Tanana River has held a contest to guess the exact date and time of day when the river ice will break up. Similar long-standing traditions exist in Dawson City on the Yukon River just across the border in Canada, and in Bethel for the Kuskokwim River. The data collected by these communities highlights how the river ice breakup dates in Nenana, Dawson City, and Bethel have changed over time.
River ice breakup is more than just a friendly competition, though. Ice breakup represents an important time of transition for communities that rely on these rivers for transportation, subsistence hunting and fishing, and other needs. Early thawing can lead to severe ice movement, jamming, damage to infrastructure, and destructive floods.
Figure 1
This figure shows the date each year when ice breaks up at three locations: the town of Nenana on the Tanana River, Dawson City on the Yukon River, and the city of Bethel on the Kuskokwim River.
Key Points
- All three rivers demonstrate long-term trends toward earlier ice breakup in the spring.
- The ice breakup dates have shifted earlier by approximately seven to nine days over their respective periods of records.
- At all three locations, the earliest breakup dates on record have occurred within the past six years.
- Despite the overall trend toward earlier breakup, most of the recent breakup dates for all three rivers are largely within the range of historical variation.
Resources: Ice breakup dates for the Tanana River at Nenana, the Yukon River at Dawson City, and the Kuskokwim River at Bethel have been recorded and made publicly available as part of three long-running community competitions: the Nenana Ice Classic, the Yukon River Breakup, and the Kuskokwim Ice Classic. The data shown here and other information can be found online at: www.nenanaakiceclassic.com , www.yukonriverbreakup.com/statistics , http://iceclassic.org/historical-data . Ice breakup dates for these rivers are also archived by the National Snow and Ice Data Center and the National Weather Service (external links).
More detail: Ice Breakup in Three Alaskan Rivers
Sebago Lake in Maine
Background
Sebago Lake is one of the jewels of the 'Lakes Region' in Maine. It is the deepest and 2nd largest lake in the state. The lake, lined with summer camps, is the primary water supply for the city of Portland and provides anglers with top-notch fishing including the famed native, land-locked salmon. Each year Sebago Lake is headquarters for a regional ice fishing derby (external link).
The formation of ice cover on lakes in the winter and its disappearance the following spring depends on climate factors such as air temperature, cloud cover, and wind. Conditions such as heavy rains or snowmelt in locations upstream or elsewhere in the watershed also affect the length of time a lake is frozen. Thus, ice formation and breakup dates are key indicators of climate change.
Changes in ice cover can affect the physical, chemical, and biological characteristics of a body of water. These changes, in turn, can affect plant and animal life cycles and the availability of suitable habitat.
The timing and duration of ice cover on lakes and other bodies of water can also affect society—particularly in relation to shipping and transportation, hydroelectric power generation, and recreation such as ice fishing.
Sebago Lake and long-term records of the Ice Cover
Thaw dates occur when the ice cover breaks up and open water becomes extensive. Records from visual observations extend back over 150 years.
This figure shows the “ice-off” date, or date of ice thawing and breakup, for Sebago Lake in southeastern Maine, as well as 13 other northern lakes. The data are available from as early as 1840 to 2019, depending on the lake, and have been smoothed using a nine-year moving average.
Lakes covered by this indicator are generally freezing later than they did in the past. This means there is an overall decline on average ice cover during the year - and less time for ice-fishing. In fact, the number of lakes each year not freezing at all has increased in recent years.
Key Points
- Thaw dates for Sebago Lake, as well as the other lakes included, show a trend toward earlier ice breakup in the spring.
- Sebago Lake's spring thaw date has grown earlier by about 16 days in the past 110 years.
Resources: Lake ice dates have been recorded and made publicly available from the Global Lake and River Ice Phenology Database, which is maintained by the National Snow and Ice Data Center. These data are available at: http://nsidc.org/data/lake_river_ice (external link). Data for Sebago Lake were obtained from researchers at the U.S. Geological Survey.
More detail: Lake Ice indicator
Cherry Blossom Blooms in Washington, D.C.
Background
Washington, D.C. has enjoyed cherry blossoms each year dating back to 1912, when Japan gave about 3,000 cherry trees to the United States as a gift of friendship. These trees bring more than 1.5 million visitors to the area every year during the National Cherry Blossom Festival. Not surprisingly, the festival is planned to coincide with the peak bloom of the cherry trees.
Scientists have very high confidence that recent warming trends in global climate are causing spring events such as leaf growth and flower blooms to happen earlier. In the case of Washington’s cherry blossoms, earlier bloom dates could affect tourism and the local economy.
Figure 1
The peak bloom date for the most common type of cherry tree around the Tidal Basin - the Yoshino variety - has been recorded since 1921 by the National Park Service. The peak bloom date is defined as the day when 70% of the blossoms are in full bloom.
Figure 1 shows how the peak bloom date of the Yoshino cherry trees has changed since 1921. It also shows the dates of the National Cherry Blossom Festival, which has grown to several weeks as its popularity has expanded.
Key Points
- Peak bloom date for the cherry trees is occurring earlier than it did in the past.
- Since 1921, peak bloom dates have shifted earlier by approximately eight days.
- Washington’s cherry blossoms reach their peak on April 3 in an average year, but the peak bloom date has occurred before April 3 in 15 of the past 20 years.
- While the length of the National Cherry Blossom Festival has continued to expand, the Yoshino cherry trees have bloomed near the beginning of the festival in recent years. During some years, like 2024, the festival missed early peak bloom dates entirely.
Resources: Peak bloom dates and festival dates were provided by the National Park Service's (NPS) cherry blossom index and organizers of the National Cherry Blossom Festival . See also real-time information on the NPS bloom watch (external links).
More detail: Cherry Blossom Bloom Dates in Washington, DC
Land Loss Along the Atlantic Coast
Background
As sea level rises, dry land can turn into wetland or open water. Existing wetlands including salt marshes, mangrove forests, and other coastal wetlands are at risk of being converted to open water.
Nearly 10 million Americans live in a coastal floodplain. Coastal ecosystems are also at risk, as coastal wetlands provide valuable nursing, feeding, breeding, and resting areas for fish, shellfish, mammals, and birds. These wetlands provide valuable ecosystem services such as food production and recreation and serve as buffers against storm and wave damage.
The Atlantic coast is particularly vulnerable because of its low elevations and sinking shorelines. This feature examines the amount of land lost to sea level rise along the Atlantic coast from Florida to New York, based on satellite data that have been collected and analyzed at five-year intervals since 1996.
The coastal land cover data are routinely compiled by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Coastal Change Analysis Program, and they represent the federal government’s most comprehensive set of data on land use and land cover in the coastal zone.
Figure 1
This graph shows the net amount of land converted to open water along the Atlantic coast during three time periods (5-years each): 1996–2001, 1996–2006, and 1996–2011. The results are divided into two regions: the Southeast and the Mid-Atlantic. Negative numbers show where land loss is outpaced by the accumulation of new land.
Figure 2
This graph shows the net amount of land converted to open water along the Atlantic coast during three time periods: 1996–2001, 1996–2006, and 1996–2011. The results are divided into categories based on the type of land that has been converted to open water.
Key Points
- Roughly 20 square miles of dry land and wetland were converted to open water along the Atlantic coast between 1996 and 2011. (For reference, Manhattan is 33 square miles.)
- At least half of the land lost since 1996 has been tidal wetland.
- The loss of dry land appears to be larger than the loss of non-tidal wetland.
- More of this loss occurred in the Southeast than in the Mid-Atlantic.
More detail: Land Loss Along the Atlantic Coast
Glaciers in Glacier National Park
Background
Established in 1910, Glacier National Park in Montana is one of the most visited national parks in the United States. However, warming temperatures are melting the park’s alpine glaciers, which has implications not only for tourism, but also for the ecosystems, animals, and people that depend on glacier-fed streamflow.
In 2017, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) published a study where they analyzed aerial images from 1966, 1998, 2005, and 2015 to assess changes over time in the surface area of Glacier National Park’s 37 named glaciers. Scientists are studying the Park’s alpine glaciers to better understand what these changes mean for the local environment and park management decisions.
Figure 1
This figure shows the change in total glacier surface area (in square miles) for all 37 named glaciers in Glacier National Park for four discrete points in time from 1996 to 2015.
Figure 2
This map illustrates the change in surface area of all 37 named glaciers in Glacier National Park for 1966, 1998, 2005, and 2015. Areas in red depict the surface area in 2015.
Key Points
- The total surface area of the 37 named glaciers in Glacier National Park decreased by about 34 percent between 1966 and 2015.
- Every glacier's surface area was smaller in 2015 than it was in 1966. Three glaciers temporarily gained some area during part of the overall time period.
- The overall trend of shrinking surface area of glaciers in Glacier National Park is consistent with the retreat of glaciers observed in the United States and worldwide.
Resources: The data in this feature come from surface area measurements of the 37 named glaciers in Glacier National Park that have been tracked over time. This data set was originally published by USGS’s Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center. This data set is also publicly available on this USGS website (external link).
More detail: Glaciers in Glacier National Park
Black Guillemots of Cooper Island
For at least 50 years, a colony of black guillemots have made Cooper Island near Utqiagvik (formerly Barrow), Alaska, home. The area provides an ideal habitat for these birds, as black guillemots spend the winter on Arctic sea ice and breed on land near the edge of the ice in summer.
The region has experienced an increase in the number of days without snow cover each year. Although this longer period ensures snow-free nest cavities during breeding season, sea ice has also started to melt earlier and freeze later.
This ecosystem change has implications not only for black guillemots, but also for other animals in the Arctic, such as polar bears, and for people who depend on Arctic animals for food and other resources.
Figure 1
A group of scientists and volunteers have been observing and counting birds at the Cooper Island colony for almost 50 years. This long-term record provides valuable clues about how rapid changes being observed in the Arctic may be influencing the natural environment.
This figure shows the number of breeding pairs in the black guillemot colony that inhabit Cooper Island along the north coast of Alaska, measured at the peak of breeding season (green line). The orange line indicates the number of installed nest site structures available to black guillemots on Cooper Island each year.
Key Points
- The black guillemot population on Cooper Island reached a peak of more than 200 pairs in the late 1980s, but the number has decreased by more than 80% since then despite a constant number of nesting sites.
- In 2023, scientists observed only 24 breeding pairs.
- The decline over the last three decades has coincided with reduced breeding success, earlier egg laying, and a decrease in the presence of sea ice in the region.
- Data from another colony also found along the shore of the Beaufort Sea (Herschel Island, Canada) suggest that similar trends are occurring across the western Arctic region.
Resources: The data in this feature are collected by researchers and provided by George Divoky and the Friends of Cooper Island (external link).
More detail: The Black Guillemots of Cooper Island
Snake River Water Temperature
Background
In the Pacific Northwest, warming river and stream temperatures will threaten ecosystems and species, including salmon populations that play an important role in the diet, culture, religion, and economy of tribes in this region.
Salmon are sensitive to water temperature at many stages of their lives. Salmon need cold water to migrate and for their young to hatch and grow successfully. River and stream temperatures in the Pacific Northwest are influenced by many factors, but are expected to rise as average air temperatures increase.
Figure 1
The graph shows average August water temperatures at a site in the Snake River, in eastern Washington near Nez Perce tribal lands. Several species of salmon use the Snake River to migrate and spawn.
Key Points
- Between 1960 and 2022, water temperature increased by 2.2°F. Warmer water not only makes it more difficult for salmon to swim upstream, but it also increases their susceptibility to disease.
More detail: Trends in Stream Temperature in the Snake River
Visit EPA's webpage to read more about climate change indicators in the United States and explore how indicators provide insight into the causes and effects of climate change.