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State of the Climate in the South-West Pacific in 2022

The global climate system is complex. In order to help understand such complexity, the WMO State of the Climate reports use climate indicators to describe how the climate has changed—providing a broad view of the climate at a global and regional scale. These indicators are representative of quantities most relevant to monitoring climate change, including the surface temperature, heat content of the ocean, greenhouse gas concentrations and other factors, as well as the responses of land, oceans and ice. The following site aims to provide an overview of the State of the Climate in the South-West Pacific in 2022. For more information and further detail, please find the full report at the bottom of the page.

The Global Context

Before exploring the state of the climate in the South-West Pacific, it is important to first know what the overall global climate looked like in 2022.

Atmospheric concentrations of the three major greenhouse gases (CO 2  , CH  , and N 2 O) reached new observed record highs in 2021 and real-time data indicate that levels continued to increase in 2022. The global annual mean temperature in 2022 was around 1.15 ±0.13°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial average, less warm than in some recent years owing to cooling La Niña conditions at the start and end of the year. Ocean heat content in 2022 was the highest on record. Ocean warming and accelerated loss of ice mass from the ice sheets contributed to global mean sea level rise, which also reached a record high in 2022. See more information on the  State of the Global Climate here  .

Major Climate Drivers

2022 was the third consecutive year of La Niña, which strongly influenced the climate in the region, contributing to cooler conditions and significant rainfall anomalies.

2022 was also the second consecutive year with a negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD).

State of the Climate in the SW Pacific

Temperature Rise

2021 and 2022 were substantially cooler than the previous few years in the region, largely as a result of the La Niña conditions which prevailed throughout most of these two years.

Temperature Rise

Despite La Niña, 2022 was 0.13 °C above the 1991-2020 average, ranking between the 8th and 10th warmest year on record, depending on the data set considered.

However, warming does not happen equally across the region.

The most significant warmth was over a region extending from Melanesia to French Polynesia, as well as New Zealand.

Negative temperature anomalies were seen over much of the equatorial Pacific and southern Australia, with parts of the equatorial Pacific more than 1°C below average in association with La Niña conditions.

Precipitation

Precipitation is a key climate parameter, closely related to indispensable resources for human activities such as water for drinking and domestic purposes, agriculture and hydropower. It also drives major climatic events such as droughts and floods.

Rainfall patterns over many parts of the region were consistent with the La Niña conditions that prevailed in 2022.

Annual rainfall was well below average in Kiribati, the Hawaiian Islands, the northern and western parts of the Bismarck Archipelago and southern Luzon.

At the other extreme, the largest rainfall excesses were measured in the majority of the Malay Archipelago, the Solomon Islands and Vanuatu.

Cryosphere

Snow is rare or unknown at low elevations over most of the region, however snow and ice occur in some mountain regions. There are glaciers in the mountains of New Zealand, mostly on the South Island, and on the highest peaks of the western part of the island of New Guinea.

New Zealand’s seasonal snow is monitored via ten National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) snow and ice monitoring sites.

Data from these sites show that snow depths were largely above average through June and July, before dropping to well below average at eight sites in the second half of August due to warm weather and a considerable rain-on-snow event.

In Australia, mountain snowpacks were above average and unusually persistent at higher elevations.

At the longest-running snow depth measurement site, Spencers Creek, the snow depth reached 1.18 m on 15 June, the greatest depth so early in the year since 1968, and remained above 1.0 m until 12 October, the longest duration of snow depth above 1.0 m since at least 1981.

In Indonesia, satellite estimates of the area of a glacier in the western part of the island of New Guinea showed a total ice area in April 2022 of 0.23 km2, a decrease of about 15% from the previous assessment of 0.27 km2 in July 2021.

Measurements of ice thickness via a single stake show a reduction in thickness of 24 m from June 2010 to the beginning of 2021, and the estimated remaining ice thickness in December 2022 was just 6 m.

Ocean Heat Content

Around 90% of the excess energy that accumulates in the earth system due to increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases goes into the ocean, changing its temperature at various levels of depth.

Most of the areas in the South-West Pacific show upper (0–700 m) ocean warming since 1993.

Warming is particularly strong in Solomon Sea and east of the Solomon Islands; in the Arafura, Banda and Timor Seas; east of the Philippines; along the southern coast of Indonesia and in the Tasman Sea at rates 2-3 times faster than the global mean.

(a) Linear trends in ocean heat content (in W/m 2 ) from 1993–2022, integrated from the surface down to 700 m depth. Ocean warming rates in areas with water shallower than 300 m have been masked in grey owing to product limitations. (b) Area-averaged time series of upper 700 m OHC anomalies (joules per square meter (J/m 2 )) for the four areas indicated in grey dashed lines

Sea Surface Temperature (SST)

SST is an important physical indicator for Earth’s climate system. Changes in SST play a critical role for the  coupling  between the ocean and the atmosphere, is an essential parameter in weather and climate prediction, and is also important for the study of marine ecosystems. 

In 2022, cold conditions were observed over parts of the central tropical Pacific, which are linked to prevailing La Niña conditions in this area.

Warming was observed over most remaining parts of the South-West Pacific region, reaching record rates of more than 0.4 °C per decade north-east of New Zealand and at the northern margin of this area. This is about three times faster than the global surface ocean warming rate.

Record-high values of almost +0.5 °C were reached in the Philippine Sea. Similar conditions prevailed in 2022 in the ocean area around New Zealand, including in the Tasman Sea, with average temperatures reaching the third highest value on record at 0.5 °C above the average.

(a) Linear trends in SST (°C per decade) over the period 1982–2022. (b) Area-averaged time series of SST anomalies (°C) relative to the 1982–2022 reference period for the areas indicated in grey dashed lines in (a).

Sea surface temperature can have a significant impact on marine life.

Corals in particular are extremely sensitive to temperature changes.

Sea Level Rise

Sea level at the coast has been measured by tide gauges in the South-West Pacific region for more than 100 years.

In more recent years, the number of tide gauges in operation has grown, and records from these have been complemented by high-precision altimeter satellites.

Globally, sea level rises at an average rate of 3.4 mm/yr and is accelerating in response to ocean warming and land ice melt.

Sea-level does not rise equally around the globe, nor from year to year.

Sea-level rise in the eastern Indian Ocean, western tropical Pacific, and south and north mid-latitude Pacific are higher than the global mean.

Extreme Events

The South-West Pacific experienced various extreme events in 2022.

Swipe to see an overview and a few key examples or use the interactive legend on the map below to filter by event type and click on each event for more details.

Tropical Cyclones

The South-West Pacific is an active region for tropical cyclones, with most countries affected. La Niña also often increases tropical cyclone numbers.

  • The Philippines experienced a number of significant landfalls affecting in total nearly 7 million people, leading to over 500 deaths and more than US$ 140 million in reported damage. The two most significant were Megi, from 10 to 12 April, and Nalgae, on 27 and 28 October. (Swipe between the images of the Philippines before and after landfall of Nalgae to see flooding and damage)

Heavy precipitation & flooding

  • In Australia, Queensland and New South Wales suffered from flooding between late February and early March which led to 22 deaths, affected over 54 000 people, and caused an estimated US$ 6.6 billion in economic damage.
  • In Indonesia's West Java province, heavy rainfall, overflowing rivers and a tornado displaced people, damaged over 3 000 houses, and had an estimated total economic damage of over US$ 62 million.
  • Floods in Malaysia damaged roads and bridges in the states of Johor, Kelantan, Pahang, Perak and Terengganu, with estimated total economic damage at about US$ 140 million.

Drought

The La Niña conditions prevailing throughout 2022 resulted in abnormally low rainfall through much of the equatorial Pacific, for the second successive year in many cases.

  • The Kiribati Government declared a state of disaster due to drought in June. The entire country was affected, with the most critical situation occurring on Tarawa island, where the capital is located. Widespread contamination of drinking water was reported.
  • 93% of Hawaii was assessed as being in drought.

Extreme heat

  • Western Australia had a number of significant heatwaves. Onslow reached 50.7 °C on 13 January, equalling the national record. Perth set a record with six consecutive days above 40°C from 18 to 23 January and a total of 13 days during the summer above 40°C, almost double the previous record.
  • Many locations on the North Island of New Zealand had their warmest night on record in the period from 8 to 13 February as a result of a moist tropical airstream. Whanganui (32.7 °C) and Greymouth (29.8 °C) also had their hottest days on record during this period.

Marine heatwaves

Like heatwaves on land, marine heatwaves are prolonged periods of extreme heat that affect the ocean and can have a range of consequences for marine life and dependent communities.

  • In 2022, the most prominent and persistent marine heatwaves occurred in a large area north-east of Australia and south of Papua New Guinea in the Solomon and Coral Seas, lasting over a period of more than six months .

Extreme events in the South-West Pacific in 2022 as reported by WMO Members. Responding countries are highlighted in red, and event types are represented by color.

Enhancing climate resilience and adaptation policies: The food system

In 2022, agriculture continued to be the sector most heavily impacted by disasters, which is especially visible in countries where the sector is vital to the economy.

For example, the agriculture sector employs over 30% of the labour force in developing countries such as Indonesia and the Philippines.

In Timor Leste, the floods in 2022 significantly aggravated existing challenges for a vulnerable population, creating long-lasting effects on food security for the affected population.

According to the Global Commission on Adaptation, without adaptation, climate change may depress growth in global agriculture yields by up to 30% by 2050.

Food system resilience is emphasized in the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) submitted by Parties to the Paris Agreement.

Of 20 Parties from the South-West Pacific, at least 15 highlighted agriculture as their focus sector area for climate adaptation, followed by environment and water.

So, what can be done?

Impact-based forecasting

Impact-based forecasting adopts the viewpoint of “what the weather will do instead of “what the weather will be”.

By adding socioeconomic layers (such as age, gender and income level) as well as exposed assets (such as infrastructure and agricultural production quantity) to hazard layers (such as weather observations and climate projection data), it is possible to identify potential exposure and vulnerability in advance.

Anticipatory Action

Anticipatory action is an adaptation method which takes impact-based forecasting to the next level whereby early action precedes a disaster by systematically linking early warnings to early actions carried out before a disaster occurs.

In food system resilience, this includes climate-informed food and land use systems planning, and early warning in advance of weather extremes to advise of potential damage to crops, food shocks, and global transport and trade disruptions.

A dependable multi-hazard early warning system serves as a backbone of a comprehensive risk-management policy mix to prevent and mitigate the effects of extreme weather on the food security and nutrition of highly vulnerable people.

Unfortunately, only 18% of NMHSs in the region are providing climate services at an advanced level, while the majority (36%) are providing those services at an essential level.

WMO and the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR) are co-leading the Early Warnings for All initiative to ensure that everyone on Earth is protected by early warnings in the next five years.

The WMO Regional Conference of South-West Pacific recommended establishing a Special Task Group to analyse the current status and critical gaps regarding early warning systems and develop an initial action plan for the Regional Association to move forward.

Overall in 2022, despite La Niña, warming continued across the South-West Pacific, contributing to rising sea levels, melting glaciers and warming seas.

More than 8 million people were directly affected by disasters throughout the year, leading to total economic damage of close to US$ 9 billion.

Enhancing the resilience of food systems is a high priority in the South-West Pacific region.

Monitoring the past and current climate and providing forecasts on weather and climate timescales are fundamental activities underpinning effective early warning services for agriculture and food security.

© World Meteorological Organization, 2023

WMO uses datasets developed and maintained by the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies, and the United Kingdom’s Met Office Hadley Centre and the University of East Anglia’s Climatic Research Unit in the United Kingdom.

It also uses reanalysis datasets from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts and its Copernicus Climate Change Service, and the Japan Meteorological Agency. This method combines millions of meteorological and marine observations, including from satellites, with models to produce a complete reanalysis of the atmosphere. The combination of observations with models makes it possible to estimate temperatures at any time and in any place across the globe, even in data-sparse areas such as the polar regions.

Internationally recognized datasets are used for all other key climate indicators. Full details are available in the report.

Videos

Australian Bureau of Meteorology, WMO

Data visualization

Claire Ransom

Content Contributors

FAO, IOM, LEGOS, SPC, SPREP, ESCAP, UNHCR, WFP

(a) Linear trends in ocean heat content (in W/m 2 ) from 1993–2022, integrated from the surface down to 700 m depth. Ocean warming rates in areas with water shallower than 300 m have been masked in grey owing to product limitations. (b) Area-averaged time series of upper 700 m OHC anomalies (joules per square meter (J/m 2 )) for the four areas indicated in grey dashed lines

(a) Linear trends in SST (°C per decade) over the period 1982–2022. (b) Area-averaged time series of SST anomalies (°C) relative to the 1982–2022 reference period for the areas indicated in grey dashed lines in (a).