Hurricane Nicholas

As we moved into mid September, all eyes turned to the southern Gulf of Mexico as an area was outlooked for potential tropical cyclone development by the National Hurricane Center (NHC). Follow along with the timeline below as we take a closer look at the life cycle of this storm.

We compiled all of our tweets throughout this event and created a Twitter Moment. Check the button below to see all of our graphics and updates as Nicholas moved through. (You do not need a Twitter account to view it)

The satellite represent of Nicholas was fairly disorganized early on in the storm's life cycle. Towards the end of the video to the right, you can see the last minute strengthening of the storm (the brighter colors) as Nicholas reached hurricane strength.

Thanks to Dr. Kimberly Wood from Mississippi State University for the satellite animation.

As Nicholas neared our coastline, coastal flooding become a concern especially for those north of Port Aransas. A Storm Surge Warning was issued for the Northern Coastal Bend and a Storm Surge Watch was issued for the Southern Coastal Bend. 2 to 4 feet of inundation was expected as a result of this storm.

In the video to the right, water can be seen reaching the dunes around Port Aransas as Nicholas meandered up the Middle Texas coast.

The largest surge we observed occurred at Port O'Connor where water levels of 3.15' MHHW ( Mean Higher High Water ) or 3.15' of inundation. Inside Lavaca Bay, Port Lavaca measured a surge of 2.31' MHHW. Tide gauges from a few sites along the coast can be seen below.

Seas quickly increased across the Western Gulf of Mexico as Nicholas strengthened. Buoys situated just off the Middle Texas coast reported seas ranging from 15-20 feet along with strong tropical storm force winds.

The image to the left was taken from a camera on Buoy 42019. At the time, winds were gusting to near 50 knots with seas of 19 feet! For reference, the image below was taken on a day when the seas were around 1.5 feet.

Tropical storm force winds initially started spreading across the Coastal Bend during the morning hours of September 13th. As the day went on, observation sites along the coast began reporting strong tropical storm force wind gusts.

The strongest winds in our forecast area can be found in Port O'Connor were a gust of 64 MPH was observed as Nicholas was strengthening into a Category 1 hurricane.

As Nicholas inched closer towards the Texas coast, our office, along with several others across the country, launch a special weather balloon mid-day on the 13th. The data collected would allow us to better asses the near storm environment and provide us a better handle on the forecast track.

Sorry about all the noise in the launch video. It was a little windy during release.

Forecasting rainfall amounts was very difficult with this storm. A small shift left or right with the track could make a drastic difference in rainfall totals.

In this case, Nicholas remained further offshore which limited our rainfall across the Coastal Bend and Victoria Crossroads. In the radar image to the left, you can see rain bands approaching the Middle Texas coast which would make you think the Coastal Bend will be seeing heavy rain shortly. However, dry air working into the region is making it hard for these bands to stay together. As a result, portions of the region only received roughly 2-4". With that said, a select few locations did receive over 5" with this event.

The heaviest rainfall can be found along the Upper Texas coast as the storm slowly meandered north after landfall.