Evaluating the COP26 deforestation pledge
Can the Glasgow Declaration catalyze enough forest conservation to significantly reduce emissions and protect biodiversity?
Deforestation worldwide has been contributing to the climate crisis, turning ecosystems that have served for millennia as carbon sinks into sources of carbon dioxide emissions—while decimating biodiversity. Intentional logging or burning of forests for agriculture, human habitation, or other uses, combined with increasingly devastating wildfires exacerbated by climate change, are several of the main sources of deforestation, though there are many regionally specific explanations and patterns (Ritchie and Roser 2021). Deforestation presents local-cumulative challenges in that its occurrence throughout a region or nation produces effects that add up to an even greater problem; it is also transboundary because wildfires and their emissions know no geopolitical boundaries and because the effects can be felt across borders, such as through water system contamination or depletion, or poor air quality. The impacts of deforestation are global, contributing significantly to excess atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), and in turn, global climate change. All of these dimensions combine to present a “wicked” problem that must be managed but is too multifaceted to solve entirely (Crowley and Head 2017).
The UN Food and Agriculture Organization estimates that on average, 10 million hectares of forest were cut down each year from 2015 to 2020 (UN FAO 2020). In Brazil alone, 2020 emissions from deforestation-driven land use change rose 24% from 2019, with 998 million tons of CO2 emissions (CO2e) in 2020, while most other nations reduced emissions during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic (Climate Observatory 2021).
While there have been some positive trends toward a decline in deforestation rates, in some regions, deforestation has worsened or is projected to worsen in the coming years—particularly for countries in the early stages of development (Ritchie and Roser 2021).
Against this backdrop, there is some cause for optimism following the announcement at the UN climate summit in Glasgow, COP26, from more than 100 nations whose leaders have committed to “halt and reverse forest loss and land degradation by 2030” (UNFCCC 2021).
Many of the signatories to the Glasgow Declaration are countries with particularly high forest cover and/or whose forests are vulnerable as they undergo rapid industrialization or face conflicts. Brazil, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Indonesia would account for nearly three quarters of CO2 emissions savings by making good on their commitments (Taylor et al 2021). Signatories also include Canada, Russia, and the United States, all of which contribute substantially to deforestation for wood and paper, conversion to crop land (including agroforestry), urbanization, or other uses.
A closer look at deforestation in three countries
These three signatories to the Glasgow Declaration––Brazil, Indonesia, and Russia––have different stories of historical and current deforestation. Their experiences and trajectories can provide insights into potential successes and challenges related to the Glasgow Declaration.
Brazil
Following a period of slowing loss of forest, Brazil’s rate of deforestation began to rise again, climbing steeply in 2020 (Climate Observatory 2021). More than half of the forest that was lost in 2020 was biodiversity-rich primary humid forest (GFW 2021a). As deforestation has further intensified in 2021 (Bowman 2021), it is likely that this trend of high loss of primary forest has also accelerated.
Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro has declared that the Amazon rainforest and other natural areas are Brazil’s sovereign property. He and his government have overturned or refused to enforce environmental regulations that could help curb illegal fire-setting (such as the fires shown in the second image), logging, or mining operations––and sometimes even encouraged increases in forest destruction for cattle ranching. At the same time, Bolsonaro has dismissed the suffering of indigenous peoples whose homelands are being decimated under his policies, claiming instead that other nations want to keep indigenous people living like “cave men” (BBC 2019).
Brazil’s participation in the Glasgow Declaration has been met with skepticism from environmental watchdog groups that say Bolsonaro’s record speaks louder than empty pledges (Bowman 2021). If the country were to meet the goals of the Glasgow Declaration, it would avoid more emissions than any other country: 6,956,800 kilotonnes of CO2e by 2030 (Taylor et al 2021).
With Brazil’s presidential election ahead in 2022 and Bolsonaro’s popularity waning in the polls (Reuters 2021c), there is hope that a future leader could revive and enforce regulations. However, the primary forests and the animals that called them home have been lost forever, and as human habitations and cattle ranches take over the former rainforests, it is unlikely that they will be reclaimed as secondary forest in the near future.
Indonesia
Indonesia is the 8th largest emitter of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the world due to land use change, deforestation, and other factors (WRI 2021). The World Resources Institute estimates that by adhering to the Glasgow Declaration, Indonesia could avoid 4,738,200 kilotonnes of CO2e by 2030––and is one of the three countries with the largest potential avoided emissions (Taylor et al 2021).
While Indonesia has historically committed some of the world’s most rampant deforestation of tropical rainforests, it has made some progress in reducing deforestation in recent years. A moratorium on new permits for use of natural forest or peatland was a core component of a $1 billion partnership with Norway launched in 2010. The agreement’s built-in accountability measures contributed to the partnership’s initial success (Austin et al 2010, WRI 2012). The government of Indonesia ended the partnership in September 2021, citing delays in payments from Norway and other factors, while reiterating its commitment to reducing greenhouse gas emissions (Reuters 2021a).
Participating in the Glasgow Declaration is another positive sign of the country’s seriousness about reducing deforestation. However, a day after Indonesia’s president Joko Widodo signed the Glasgow Declaration, the country’s environment minister Siti Nurbaya Bakar said zero deforestation by 2030 would be “inappropriate and unfair.” This has led many people to wonder whether Indonesia will indeed abide by the terms of the declaration (Peter 2021). Bakar soon clarified the statement, saying Indonesia would “walk the talk” on reducing deforestation, but did not reaffirm a commitment to the Glasgow Declaration’s aim of halting deforestation by 2030 (Reuters 2021b).
The country has also ramped up its production of biofuels in recent years, converting forests to plantations to expand biofuel output. The country is expected to further increase production to lower the carbon intensity of its vehicle fleet––which is at cross-purposes with the goal of reducing deforestation and maintaining intact forests as carbon sinks (Stallard and Song 2021).
Russia
While it is not among the countries expected to avoid the most emissions through the Glasgow Declaration, estimated at 700 kilotonnes of CO2e avoided by 2030 (Taylor et al 2021), Russia’s participation is still noteworthy.
Two main drivers of tree cover loss in Russia include forestry and wildfires. 2021 had an unusually high number of wildfires, even compared with 2012, another year with a high number of wildfires, such as those shown in the second image (Skene 2021, GFW 2021b, Maddox et al 2019, NASA 2012).
As the Natural Resources Defense Council points out, it remains to be seen whether Russia and other northern countries such as Canada will reduce primary forest loss, or will sidestep the Declaration by considering their practices of clearcutting as “sustainable forest management” (Skene 2021). Clearcutting is widespread in the Russian taiga, and even logging companies that are certified by the Forest Stewardship Council (FSC) are able to clearcut forested plots. A 2019 analysis of FSC-certified and non-FSC-certified clearcut sites in the Arkhangelsk Region of eastern Russia concluded that the FSC system “contributed to the ongoing loss of primary forests” and should be overhauled to give priority to “safeguarding functional forest ecosystems” (Blumroeder et al. 2019).
Text by E. Dahl, with Esri mapping and credits shown on individual images.
Who’s in and who’s out of the Glasgow Declaration: biodiversity considerations
While the majority of world nations have joined the Glasgow Declaration, there are some notable exceptions. Among them are countries with highly biodiverse, highly threatened areas called biodiversity hotspots (CEPF 2021). The map below shows hotspots in shades of orange, with signatory countries in green with blue outlines, and non-signatories in yellow with gray outlines. Several countries, both signatories and non-signatories, are entirely or mostly orange because the entire area is considered a hotspot.
Signatories to the Glasgow Declaration vis-à-vis 2016 Global Biodiversity Hotspots (E. Dahl using data from Esri, CEPF, FAO, and NOAA. Signatory information from UNFCCC/UKCOP26 )
An area only qualifies as a biodiversity hotspot if it 1) contains “at least 1,500 species of vascular plants found nowhere else on Earth (known as “endemic” species)”, and 2) “[has] lost at least 70 percent of its primary native vegetation” (CEPF 2021). The concept was first developed in 1988 by British ecologist Norman Myers, who identified 10 hotspots. Conservation International incorporated and expanded on the concept, adding hotspots over time, with 36 total hotspots as of 2016 (Ibid).
While the hotspots are a valuable concept for drawing attention and funding to some of the most vulnerable, biodiverse areas of the planet, there are several issues with referencing the hotspots in isolation. First, beyond endemic plants, there’s the value of biodiversity among all species. Some species may not be endemic but are still globally rare, such as jaguars, tapirs, and many others in the tropics, or the critically endangered Amur leopard of Russia and northern China—not to mention all the reptiles, amphibians, birds, and insects that rely on forested habitat. Second, since 2016, habitat degradation has continued throughout the world, so it is possible that some regions that have previously met one of the two criteria—sufficient numbers of endemic plants—could now meet the other requirement of having lost at least 70% of its primary native vegetation. For example, given the ongoing deforestation in Brazil, it is possible that the qualifying area of the Brazilian hotspot has spread more than the currently defined area.
Southeast Asia
Non-signatory countries in Southeast Asia include Cambodia, India, Laos, Myanmar, Thailand. Each has heavily forested portions, shown in dark green.
The entire countries of Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, and Thailand are designated as biodiversity hotspots (in shades of orange), as are neighboring signatory countries Bhutan, Nepal, Malaysia, and Vietnam. Several of the most forested parts of India, including the northeast and west coast, are also biodiversity hotspots; fragmented forest in eastern India does not have this designation.
Another way of looking at biodiversity in the region is in terms of species richness (number of species estimated to occur in each grid cell) and rarity (average range restrictedness of all species expected to occur in each cell). Here, as shown in the legend, the most intense shade of yellow indicates the highest level of species richness, while the most intense cyan indicates the highest rarity; areas with the highest concentrations of both richness and rarity are in the darkest blue shade (further detail in Jetz, McPherson and Guralnick (2012) ). Each of the non-signatory countries has forested areas with high densities of species richness and rarity.
South America
Similarly, the three non-signatory countries in South America—Bolivia, French Guiana, and Venezuela—all have areas with high concentrations of species richness and/or rarity.
These ecologically intense areas include significant forested regions, as well as non-forested regions in Bolivia and Venezuela. French Guiana is both highly diverse and highly forested, but has no designated biodiversity hotspots.
Look at the forested areas of Bolivia, most of which are not part of its designated hotspot—yet the Bolivian Amazon is known for its biodiversity, and is one of the countries with the greatest loss of primary forest. Perhaps a future update to the definition of hotspots could adjust qualifications to encompass these highly diverse regions that have experienced encroachment and deforestation.
Visualization and text by E. Dahl using ArcGIS layers by Esri and CEPF.
Challenges to the successful implementation of the Declaration
While the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES) and other measures to protect endangered species are important for reducing biodiversity loss due to poaching and wildlife trade, environmental regulations that specifically seek to protect habitats and species are often weakened, waived, or sidestepped at a national, regional, or local level to make way for urban or agricultural development. For example, here in the United States, the Trump Administration ordered agencies to waive environmental laws for this purpose (Eilperin and Stein 2020)––which has done long-lasting damage despite the Biden Administration's efforts to overturn many of those orders (Milman and Chang 2021). In countries with widespread corruption and/or weak monitoring and enforcement mechanisms, particularly high levels of environmental destruction can occur (Landau and Glandorf 2020). Illegal environmental activities have soared during the COVID-19 pandemic, when there are fewer ranger patrols and non-governmental organizations on the ground in vulnerable areas (WWF 2020).
Although the Glasgow Declaration could achieve significant conservation of forested lands and address climate change by reducing CO2 emissions, signatories’ interpretations of deforestation will be a key factor in the Declaration’s success or failure to live up to its potential. Even for countries that limit forest conversions to other uses, development and biodiversity pressures could be transferred to different regions, such as African savannas and the alluvial plains of the Brazilian Pantanal. It will be important for countries to consider how the Glasgow Declaration can complement all of the biodiversity elements of UN Sustainable Development Goal 15, which seeks to protect life on land (UN 2021).
Three of the countries in which the highest total primary forest loss occurred in 2020––Bolivia, Lao PDR, and Cambodia––are among those that have not signed the Glasgow declaration. While Cambodia has improved slightly, Bolivia’s standing has worsened, and Lao PDR’s ranking remained constant.
Encouraging these three countries, along with the remaining non-signatory countries, to join the Declaration will be a worthwhile diplomatic endeavor—with a particular focus on those with rapid deforestation.
This chart is only part of the picture, as in each country, various factors are at play––such as good governance in Malaysia and Indonesia, or human-caused fires for agricultural clearing that became intense, widespread wildfires in Brazil and Bolivia, exacerbated by climate change-related droughts (Weisse and Goldman 2021). It will be essential for all of these countries to assess their individual situations and develop region-specific plans for reducing deforestation.
This map from World Resources Initiative’s Global Forest Watch further illustrates the main drivers of global tree cover loss between 2001 and 2020. The legend enables viewing of the changes in forest cover over this period of time. In northern countries, forestry and wildfires are main drivers of tree cover loss—along with urbanization in the U.S. In southern countries, agriculture, including shifting patterns for small- and medium-scale agriculture, as well as larger-scale deforestation from commercial agriculture (commodity-driven deforestation) are main drivers.
Beef production, cropland for palm oil and other oils, and forestry for paper and wood are the main commodities driving deforestation—with beef, soy, and palm oil responsible for nearly 60% of all tropical deforestation from 2005 to 2013. Among these, beef production is by far the most responsible for deforestation. According to the research, a similar pattern has continued since 2013 (Ritchie 2021).
This chart underscores why even if signatory governments have the best intentions of meeting the aims of the Glasgow Declaration, increases in producer accountability and shifts in consumer preferences are necessary to achieve lasting change.
On producer accountability, some success came from a 2006 Brazilian soy moratorium, through which traders agreed to stop purchasing soy grown on deforested Amazon lands—bringing soy production-related deforestation from 30% in 2006 to 1% in 2014. However, since soybean production shifted to threaten other regions, future agreements should be carefully designed to discourage other negative externalities and unintended consequences (Ritchie 2021). Current producer accountability efforts include the multi-stakeholder Roundtable for Sustainable Palm Oil, through which companies that comply with environmental and social criteria can produce Certified Sustainable Palm Oil (RSPO 2021). The FSC certifies responsibly sourced paper and wood throughout the world (FSC 2021), but as noted in the example of Russia, the FSC’s allowance of clearcutting practices under its standards limits the initiative's potential effectiveness in preventing deforestation of primary forests (Blumroeder et al. 2019). There is no widespread labeling system for rainforest-friendly beef; the Sustainable Agriculture Network has attempted this in Brazil, but has met with limited success (Cameron 2016). Because cattle ranching is also a major source of methane emissions, even responsible beef production has major environmental consequences. Changes in cattle diets such as seaweed-based feedstock can help mitigate these impacts (Walter 2019).
Many of the products produced in tropical regions are being consumed in the global north, where people do not see the consequences of their consumption for far-off forests and communities. Consumer preference shifts can be encouraged with awareness campaigns that link beef consumption, palm oil, soy, and wood and paper products with rainforest destruction. Labeling efforts such as for palm oil can only be successful if consumers are sufficiently aware of and demand sustainable products. FSC labeling has gained some mainstream awareness and acceptance over time, but there is not extensive consumer awareness of or demand for sustainable production or consumption related to deforestation––or for sustainable products more generally across sectors. For example, in a 2021 Deloitte survey of consumers in the United Kingdom to assess general attitudes toward sustainability, only 34 percent of respondents reported that they had “chosen brands that have sustainable practices/values over the past 12 months” (Deloitte 2021). Even for consumers who are aware of and interested in choosing sustainable forest products, the ambiguity of some labels increases the difficulty of making informed decisions. Because of the wide range of arguably unsustainable practices allowed under standards like FSC’s, these labeling initiatives risk issues of both public credibility and effectiveness in preventing deforestation.
Looking ahead: elements needed for the success of the Glasgow Declaration
Unlike the 2014 New York Declaration on Forests, which has not made progress toward its goals, the Glasgow Declaration has many more signatories. The Glasgow Declaration is also backed by approximately $19.2 billion dollars in public and private funding—some of which is explicitly intended to support indigenous and local communities’ land rights and forest stewardship roles (UK PM 2021, Timperley 2021). The implementation of these climate financing measures could bode well for at least partial progress by 2030.
Promoting mutual accountability will be an important part of implementation of the Declaration, with appropriate benchmarking, monitoring, and analysis by third parties such as UNEP, World Resources Institute, and others. Clarification of the pledge’s meaning as zero deforestation, rather than zero net deforestation by 2030, would also be a positive step, as the latter allows clearing of primary (old-growth) forests that have high levels of biodiversity (Timperley 2021). The Declaration’s expressed values of biodiversity and sustainable development should be further articulated in the coming months. It will be important for countries to consider how the Glasgow Declaration can complement all of the biodiversity elements of UN Sustainable Development Goal 15, which seeks to protect life on land (UN 2021).
In addition to governance, it will be equally important to focus on producer accountability and consumer awareness efforts to support responsible commodity production and shift demand to responsibly produced beef, soy, palm oil, wood, and paper products. Encouraging consumers to adopt high-protein sources other than beef, including vegetarian beef substitutes that have gained popularity in recent years, will also be valuable (Ritchie 2021).
With substantial financing plus a combination of international dialogue, strengthened national environmental protections, incorporation of biodiversity considerations, participation of the current non-signatories, and involvement of NGOs in producer accountability and public awareness campaigns, the Glasgow Declaration could live up to its ambitious commitments.
Acknowledgements
Many thanks to Professor Melissa McCracken of the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University and Michelle Sims of World Resources Institute for their valuable insights and reviews of this piece.
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