Arctic Urban Risks and Adaptations

Communities in Alaska are impacted by a trio of hazards: wildfire, permafrost thaw, and rain-in-winter, which each affect communities differently based on season and geography. These three hazards are the subject of the  Arctic Urban Risks and Adaptations  (AURA) group, a National Science Foundation (NSF) funded activity under the Navigating the New Arctic (NNA) initiative. AURA’s work focuses on three Arctic cities: Fairbanks and Anchorage, Alaska, USA and Whitehorse, Yukon, Canada. AURA’s researchers, a group of interdisciplinary and inter-agency scientists, are looking at the impacts of our changing environment on hazard behavior and communities in order to determine how best to manage and respond to these escalating concerns.

Even with this understanding, fire is most often unwelcome and can have devastating consequences. The state’s most populated south-central region had air quality warnings one out of every three days in the summer of 2019. Recreation is important to residents, and a large part of the allure to living in Alaska. One resident commented, “sometimes I think about whether I'll stay in Alaska… if there’s more smoke”. Focus group participants commented on losing opportunities for activities like biking and soccer due to wildfire smoke. These don’t just represent sources of fun, but also the loss of access to healthy habits and summer childcare. In place of the outdoors, many residents were stuck at home and indoors with air filters. 

As the frequency and severity of wildfires increases and permafrost thaw becomes more regular, the  Arctic Urban Risks and Adaptations  group is studying how these two hazards interact. When fires go through the arctic landscape, their main fuel source is a layer of undecomposed organic matter called duff, which insulates the frozen ground beneath. This layer can be incredibly thick, and persists as ground cover across seasons. When this organic mat burns, the ground below becomes exposed and is more likely to thaw. But mitigating one risk can also exacerbate another: AURA researcher Jen Schmidt investigates how certain kinds of fuel breaks intended to contain wildfire spread can remove the insulative layer of vegetation as well and accelerate permafrost thaw. Better understanding these interactions will help communities develop resilience in the face of continual climate shifts.

Both wildfire and variable permafrost occur naturally in the Arctic, and historically haven’t posed unmanageable challenges. A warming climate increases fire events and destabilizes permafrost, leading residents and scientists to wish for cooler and wetter days. Winter can come as a welcome change from the air quality warnings and evacuation plans of summer months. But Alaska is faced with a third hazard that is not improved by the cold.

When air temperatures are at or above freezing, rain in winter can occur. Alaska experiences very little solar heating in the winter months, so once ice forms, it often stays until late into spring.  Small amounts of rainfall can be managed with road treatments including snow clearance, but there is currently not much that can be done to mitigate the effects of larger rain events. According to AURA researcher Rick Thoman, even small rain events, just over a tenth of an inch, can have huge impacts on road safety. The city of Fairbanks treats many of the roads in town, but roads further out of the city, where slopes are also much steeper, often remain iced throughout the winter, posing huge transportation risks. Summer-time permafrost disturbance can worsen road conditions, creating irregular slopes and ruts. These conditions exacerbate the danger of ice events, illustrating the compounding safety impacts of climate hazards. 

Life goes on despite extreme weather, and residents have been forced to adapt to these unsafe conditions. Many local Alaskan schools now build cancellation days into their calendars, but there are still “instances where we don't go to work, or the kids can't go to school”. The frequency of these events is increasing due to warmer temperatures, and one resident described, “I don't remember [skipping work due to rain in winter] ever happening. You know, before 2000 maybe once or twice, but it got to be a regular event”. As the climate changes, Alaskans will have to continue to adapt. 

Precipitation in the summer is often welcome for cooling hot temperatures and extinguishing wildfires. But winter precipitation can make summer conditions worse. Heavy ice storms can down trees and powerlines, causing outages. When these events are widespread, fallen trees create a new, robust, source of fuel for fires to come through.

The  Arctic Urban Risks and Adaptation  (AURA) group is working with communities to develop a “co-production framework for addressing multiple changing environmental hazards." The research team wants to ensure that their findings are communicated effectively and collaboratively with the public and other stakeholders to properly prepare for and respond to these changing environmental hazards. Their goals include working collaboratively with communities to assess hazards in the context of historic and future changes, weighing the costs of hazards and mitigation plans, and collaborating with various stakeholders, like government employees, NGOs, and tribal entities, to explore existing community strategies, hazard interactions, and responsive plans for adaptation. You can find more about the project at their website,  Respond to Risk , or  Facebook Page .

Starting with primary data and citizen science about the evolution of wildfire, permafrost thaw, and rain-in-winter hazards, the AURA team is creating hazard maps to illustrate spatial distribution and inform predictive models. Using stakeholder interviews, property owner surveys, and economic analyses, they aim to create cost and risk estimates and action items for communities to address the changing hazard risks. Feedback from the maps, models, assessments, and community members will inform the design of an adaptive policy framework that can be used by residents, policy-makers, and other stakeholders at planning workshops to manage and adapt to risks, while being able to adjust according to continuing community feedback.

One of the main products of the project has been the current hazard maps shown below. Using these maps, AURA researchers have identified areas of low, medium, and high concern. These maps can inform adaptation and mitigation strategies to minimize the risks of fire, permafrost thaw, and rain in winter on communities. Residents in Fairbanks are experiencing changes to all three hazards.

Community is a big driver of their work, and co-production of knowledge means working closely with impacted groups. The AURA group has sought out feedback through  homeowner surveys , workshops, and interviews. Community members can participate in the research by requesting a permafrost monitoring kit, where they can collect data on their own property to help researchers understand how wildfire mitigation practices can impact permafrost. Residents of Anchorage, Fairbanks, or Whitehorse can request a kit  here .

One of AURA's goals is to engage landowners to understand the hazards they face from wildfire, permafrost thaw, and rain-in-winter events. Wildfire is hard to predict and even harder to control, with much of the responsibility falling on homeowners to responsibly prepare for and mitigate fire risks on their property.

Fuel treatments are one way to reduce fire risk. The map to the right shows the impact of a treatment on the spread of the Shovel Creek Fire. The area south of the fuel treatment line had noticeably lower exposure, protecting neighborhoods. Fuel treatments can include prescribed burns, mechanical thinning, chipping, and other forms of physical fuel removal. The city of Whitehorse, one of AURA's study sites, implemented neighborhood "chipper days" in which communities could take advantage of wood chipping and clearing opportunities. Forty percent of residents chose to participate in the fuel smart program.

Residents in Fairbanks are experiencing a rapidly changing climate with each of the three hazards responding differently across space and time. Homeowners are taking responsibility for wildfire mitigation and adaptation on their properties in order to protect their homes and communities. Rain-in-winter events are difficult to mitigate due to their persistence throughout the season, and residents have been forced to adapt to school cancellations, missing work, and cleaning up incidents. While permafrost thaw isn't new to Fairbanks, its rate and extent are becoming more apparent and require direct and localized mitigation and adaptation measures to protect ways of life. The AURA project works to keep these communities informed, prepared, and empowered.

AURA Website:  https://www.respondtorisk.com/ 

AURA Facebook Page:  https://www.facebook.com/respondtorisk/ 

Permafrost Monitoring Kits:  https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSdrMHSOhl-G-BPyDSBQGYN2QiVTf5RaaVSrEOvoZ585U_XSWA/viewform?usp=pp_url 

Permafrost website:  https://permafrost.gi.alaska.edu/  Cold Climate Housing Center:  http://cchrc.org/  Wildfire smoke info:  http://smoke.alaska.edu/current_fires.html  Alaska Wildland Fire Information Map Series:  https://blm-egis.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=32ec4f34fb234ce58df6b1222a207ef1 

 _{Researchers of this project provide this site as a public service. Unauthorized attempts to modify any information stored on this site or utilize this site for other than its intended purposes are prohibited. We make no claims or guarantees about the accuracy or currency of the contents of this website and expressly disclaims liability for errors and omissions in its contents. A consultation with the researcher is advised prior to making any actions.}  

AURA would like to thank the residents of Fairbanks for their informative insights and time and their partners Monika Calef and Anna Varvak at the Soka University of America, Fairbanks North Star Borough, Municipality of Anchorage, City of Whitehorse, State of Alaska Division of Forestry, Government of Yukon, Alaska Fire Science Consortium, Anchorage Fire Department, Cold Climate Housing Research Center, Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory, Sustainable Earth research LLC (SEARCH), and Anchorage Waterways Council (AWC).