
The Great Climate Migration
A visual correlation of migration patterns around the world due to climate change
Introduction
One of the biggest crises of our day is climate change. In many places of the world, it is becoming a greater concern to vulnerable communities. Populations all throughout the world are affected, but vulnerable people in some of the world's most fragile and conflict-stricken countries are disproportionately affected. Many of them have taken the tough decision of leaving their homes.
In our map, we will be analyzing the world's immigration patterns in relation to environmental issues. We have collected data on general world immigration patterns. We have also collected data on the world's climate from 1981 to 2010, along with a prediction of the world's temperature and precipitation from 2040 to 2059. To view the effects climate has on migration, we have picked two countries that have experienced the influence of floods and droughts each and the immigration patterns from that country. We picked this topic to show the detrimental effects climate change has as it forces people to immigrate to other regions due to hard living conditions.
Its Getting Hot In Here
Global Average Temperature: 1981 - 2010
For thousands of years, humans have lived mostly on lands where a limited range of comfortable temperatures enabled an abundance of food to grow.
Global Average Temperature Projection: 2040 - 2059
Today, only one percent of the world is barely tolerable due to heat; but by 2070, extremely hot zones could make up almost 20 percent of the land, which means that a third of humanity could potentially be living in uninhabitable conditions. For every degree of temperature increase, it’s estimated that one billion people are pushed out of the hospitable zone.
The Ocean is Reclaiming its Space on the Planet
Sea level rise has increased by 50% since 1993, according to a recent study. This is a sign that natural climate change buffers are nearing their limits. Sea levels might increase between two and 6.9 feet between now and 2100, drowning millions of dwellings throughout the world; sea level rise also causes bigger storm surges and saltwater contamination of crops and drinking water supplies.
Sea Level Trends
“Things are getting worse as climate change aggravates existing factors like poverty, conflict, and political instability,” Brunt said. “The compounded impact makes recovery longer and more difficult: people barely have time to recover and they’re slammed with another disaster.”
The New York Times reported that 40.5 million people across the planet were displaced in 2020—the most in 10 years—largely due climate change.
By 2100, the effects of climate change will displace an estimated 2 billion people from their homes, according to a new analysis from Cornell University.
This map documents the numbers of people displaced due to environmental factors between 2008 and 2014. Source: Richard Weller, Claire Hoch, and Chieh Huang
Droughts are caused by low precipitation for a long period of time. Somalia has experienced severe droughts in the years 2016 and 2017. Somalia has experienced droughts due to El Nino and the monsoon winds. By the time the monsoon winds reach Somalia, the winds lose their moisture. Then, in the case of El Nino, it's the process in which the water temperature of the Pacific Equator gets warmer.
Satellite gravimetry image indicating an ongoing drought (right), compared to before the drought (left). It is Somali severe drought since 2016 - 2018.
This shows the displacement data from 2008 to 2020 in Somaila
A flood occurs when water collects on ordinarily dry land. It's caused by an exceptional accumulation of water from sources like severe rains or dam or levee breaches, or by an overflow of inland waters (such rivers and streams) or tidal waters. Parts of Thailand, for example, were hit by the worst floods in nearly half a century in 2011. Villages, historic temples, farms, and factories were flooded, killing at least 366 people in Thailand and another 200 in Cambodia. The flooding has affected 8.2 million people in 60 of Thailand's 77 provinces, resulting in $2 billion in economic losses.
True-color satellite image showing October 2011 flooding in Ayutthaya and Pathum Thani Provinces in Central Thailand (right), compared to before the flooding (left).
This shows the displacement data from 2008 to 2020 in Thailand
Climate Migrants Not Climate Refugees
Migration, whether permanent or temporary, has always been a traditional response or survival strategy of people confronting the prospect, impact or aftermath of disasters (Hugo 1996).
People forced to flee their homes due to drought, floods, or storms are referred to as "climate refugees" by the media and advocacy groups. International refugee law, on the other hand, does not consider these people to be refugees. The term "refugee" refers to a person who has a "well-founded fear of being persecuted for reasons of race, religion, nationality, membership in a certain social group, or political opinion," according to the law (Art. 1, 1951 Refugee Convention). People fleeing their nations for reasons related to climate stressors may not be declared refugees under this treaty because the environment is not recognized as a persecuting agency.
ArcGIS Insights
The Choice
Around the world, nations are choosing walls. Deciding to isolate themselves from the problem and leave people to drown. For instance, India built a fence along most of its 2,500-mile border with Bangladesh, whose people are among the most vulnerable in the world to rising sea-level. Also, the United States refused to join 164 other countries in signing a global migration treaty in 2018, the first such agreement to recognize climate as a cause of future displacement. At the same time, the U.S. is cutting off foreign aid — money for everything from water infrastructure to greenhouse agriculture — that has been proved to help starving families produce food, and ultimately stay in their homes.
The Future
If we do not take bold climate action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and help developing countries, 143 million people from Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and Latin America (which together comprise 55 percent of the developing world’s population) could be forced to move within their own countries to flee the effects of climate change.
So the question then is: What are policymakers and planners prepared to do about that?If societies respond aggressively to climate change and migration and increase their resilience to it, food production will be shored up, poverty reduced and international migration slowed — factors that could help the world remain more stable and more peaceful.
What can we do?
- If possible try to use recyclable materials and try to reduce the use of one-time-use plastics.
- Call your representatives to demand they act and support climate migrates.
- Support and inform others of programs that help with reducing environmental issues like a dollar for a tree or 4 Ocean.
- Join environmental and immigration interest groups to hold the government responsible in return to hold big industries and companies that aren't environmentally safe accountable.
- Another option would be to boycott or protest industries and companies that are polluting and causing environmental issues.
New Report Says Climate Change Could Force Millions to Move Within Their Countries