2022 Minnesota Air Quality Information and Outlook
Daniel Dix, David Brown, Matt Taraldsen, Nick Witcraft
Daniel Dix, David Brown, Matt Taraldsen, Nick Witcraft
May 2 - 6 , 2022 Theme - "Be Air Aware & Prepared" Daily Topics: Monday - Wildfire & Smoke Tuesday - Asthma and Your Health Wednesday - Citizen Science & Sensors Thursday - Environmental Justice & Air Quality Friday - Air Quality Around the World
Look for press releases and follow @MPCA_AQI for more starting May 2nd
Similar... with added challenges!
Similar to Mesoanalysis/Severe Weather Forecasting Trying to find subtle features that make or break air quality forecasts!
In 2021 we used an additional headline during the worst of the air quality. This will be used extremely infrequently and will highlight exceptional events on the scale of what occurred in July/August 2021.
Alerts will be accompanied with a map showing maximum AQI forecasted colors.
When applicable - source incidents/fires within MN will be included on the maps.
Maps will include issuance timestamps.
Important to note that the alert will include all areas highlighted with an AQI color.
Matt Taraldsen
Since MPCA has been issuing alerts (2011), last year was the busiest season by far.
Not only did 2021 have a lot of events - the severity, duration, and scope of air quality impacts was unprecedented in modern Minnesota history.
Over 40 media interviews from the team
Developed extensive collaboration during the 2021 season: - MDH to assist with impact wording - US Forest Service for fuel and fire behavior updates - Interagency Wildland Fire Air Quality Response Program (IWFAQRP) - US Forest Service /Minnesota Incident Command System (MINICS)/ Bad River Tribal Nation/ MPCA/ Wisconsin DNR/ Michigan EGLE - Tribal nation response/assistance - Alerts + Purple Air Sensors
1) Generally warm and dry conditions favor more ozone. - Less cloud and more sun allows Ozone to form 2) Drought conditions favor more wildfires and smoke. 3) Winter stagnation requires a stagnant airmass (~1 - 2 events per year)
Wide area of severe drought continues across the Western US
Small area of moderate drought continues across far northeastern and southern MN Abnormally dry overall in north and far south MN
Moderate to extreme drought continues in southern Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, and western Ontario
However, April so far has been wet/snowy in southern Manitoba and western Ontario
Dryness in most of Minnesota and southern Canada
Very dry across the western US
Drought development likely across southern Minnesota
- 3 to 5 days of ozone concentrations reaching orange - Some smoke impacts appear likely
For ozone: Above normal temperatures, less rain and less clouds than normal allow for more ozone production (normal is 2-4 events per year)
For Fires: - Ongoing drought and above normal fire activity in southern Canada - Multi-year drought in western US persists, but smoke from that area tends to stay aloft in MN. - Wet winter and improved soil moisture will hopefully reduce fire activity here in MN.