2022 Minnesota Air Quality Information and Outlook

Daniel Dix, David Brown, Matt Taraldsen, Nick Witcraft

Welcome!

This talk will be 30 minutes and cover the following topics:

  • Air Quality Index (AQI) Overview and How We Forecast/Issue Alerts - David Brown
  • Overview of the Historic 2021 Season - Matt Taraldsen
  • Outlook for 2022 - Nick Witcraft Please keep camera off and mic muted until question and answer time at the end.

2022 Air Quality Awareness Week

May 2 - 6 , 2022 Theme - "Be Air Aware & Prepared" Daily Topics: Monday - Wildfire & Smoke Tuesday - Asthma and Your Health Wednesday - Citizen Science & Sensors Thursday - Environmental Justice & Air Quality Friday - Air Quality Around the World

Look for press releases and follow @MPCA_AQI for more starting May 2nd

Forecasting Air Quality

How is air quality forecasting different than weather forecasting?

Similar... with added challenges!

  • Fuses weather prediction challenges with atmospheric chemistry challenges.
  • Microscale or Mesoscale meteorology phenomena make or break the forecast.
  • “Quiet” weather often is the most challenging.
  • People directly alter the air quality... for better or worse.

Air Quality Forecasting Procedure

Datasets we use:

  • Synoptic Models and Ensembles for Big Details
  • Convective Allowing Models (CAMS) for Mesoscale Details
  • ROABs (Weather Balloons) – Mixing Heights and Wind Fields
  • RAP Model Soundings for Mesoscale Processes and Mixing Heights
  • Satellite Data (GOES is very helpful)
  • MPCA Built Artificial Intelligence Model
  • CMAQ - The Community Multiscale Air Quality Modeling System
  • NOAA HRRR Smoke and Canadian Wildfire Smoke Prediction System (FireWork)
  • NOAA HYSPLIT Model for Trajectories

Similar to Mesoanalysis/Severe Weather Forecasting Trying to find subtle features that make or break air quality forecasts!

Issuing An Alert

When we forecast Orange AQI or higher we issue an alert. Procedure:

  1. Forecast Zones (Based on NWS Zones) are selected in ArcGIS Pro
  2. Map of highest AQI Category drawn in ArcGIS Pro (New in 2021)
  3. A Python script is used to convert selected zones into a NWS AQA text product
  4. AQA text product contains bulleted wording similar to other NWS products (New in 2021)
  5. AQA product and press releases include updated wording for each AQI category (New in 2022)
  6. AQA is sent NWS offices, press release distributed to media/partners

Changes to AQA Wording

Enhanced Wording

In 2021 we used an additional headline during the worst of the air quality. This will be used extremely infrequently and will highlight exceptional events on the scale of what occurred in July/August 2021.

Changes to NWS Text Product AQA

Maximum AQI Category Maps (New 2021)

August 24, 2021 Alert Map showing large Active Fires in MN

This was well received and will continue with alerts going forward

Alerts will be accompanied with a map showing maximum AQI forecasted colors.

When applicable - source incidents/fires within MN will be included on the maps.

Maps will include issuance timestamps.

Important to note that the alert will include all areas highlighted with an AQI color.

2021 Overview

Matt Taraldsen

2021 was historic.

Maximum Daily PM2.5 Readings for all MN stations 2009 - 2021

Since MPCA has been issuing alerts (2011), last year was the busiest season by far.

Not only did 2021 have a lot of events - the severity, duration, and scope of air quality impacts was unprecedented in modern Minnesota history.

2021 Event Summary

Social Media (@MPCA_AQI)

The Smoke Generated Significant Public Interest

Over 40 media interviews from the team

  • Live TV interview
  • Live radio interview
  • MPR Climate Cast
  • Contribution to newspaper articles
  • Press briefing

Media Process for 2022

  • Alerts with a forecast category of Orange (Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups) will follow same press release and alert dissemination as 2021
  • Alerts with a forecast of Red (Unhealthy for All) or higher categories will also trigger media briefings. - Two briefings will be offered (morning and afternoon) - Information on the briefings will be contained on the press release

Collaboration Across Organizations

Developed extensive collaboration during the 2021 season: - MDH to assist with impact wording - US Forest Service for fuel and fire behavior updates - Interagency Wildland Fire Air Quality Response Program (IWFAQRP) - US Forest Service /Minnesota Incident Command System (MINICS)/ Bad River Tribal Nation/ MPCA/ Wisconsin DNR/ Michigan EGLE - Tribal nation response/assistance - Alerts + Purple Air Sensors

2022 Outlook

Nick Witcraft

Factors for Poor Air Quality:

1) Generally warm and dry conditions favor more ozone. - Less cloud and more sun allows Ozone to form 2) Drought conditions favor more wildfires and smoke. 3) Winter stagnation requires a stagnant airmass (~1 - 2 events per year)

Current Situation

Wide area of severe drought continues across the Western US

Small area of moderate drought continues across far northeastern and southern MN Abnormally dry overall in north and far south MN

Comparing April 2022 to April 2021

There has been some drought improvement compared to April 2021

Minnesota drought time series

Less area under drought compared to last year, but a similar amount of ‘Abnormally Dry’ Note the rapid expansion of drought conditions that occurred in late May 2021

North American Drought

Moderate to extreme drought continues in southern Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, and western Ontario

However, April so far has been wet/snowy in southern Manitoba and western Ontario

Palmer Drought Index

Dryness in most of Minnesota and southern Canada

Very dry across the western US

Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Seasonal Outlook

Drought development likely across southern Minnesota

North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME)

Ensemble of multiple climate models predict a warmer and drier than average summer

Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Summer Seasonal Outlook

Summer is leaning towards warmer and drier

US Forest Service Wildfire Potential Outlook

NOTE: USFS is the subject matter expert for fire outlooks and information. MPCA uses this information in creating air quality forecasts. Normal fire activity in the Midwest, above normal in the Western US

Canadian Wildfire Outlook

Above normal and well above above normal fire activity is more likely in summer 2022

Minnesota Air Quality Outlook for Summer 2022

- 3 to 5 days of ozone concentrations reaching orange - Some smoke impacts appear likely

For ozone: Above normal temperatures, less rain and less clouds than normal allow for more ozone production (normal is 2-4 events per year)

For Fires: - Ongoing drought and above normal fire activity in southern Canada - Multi-year drought in western US persists, but smoke from that area tends to stay aloft in MN. - Wet winter and improved soil moisture will hopefully reduce fire activity here in MN.

Links

August 24, 2021 Alert Map showing large Active Fires in MN

Maximum Daily PM2.5 Readings for all MN stations 2009 - 2021

There has been some drought improvement compared to April 2021

Less area under drought compared to last year, but a similar amount of ‘Abnormally Dry’ Note the rapid expansion of drought conditions that occurred in late May 2021

Ensemble of multiple climate models predict a warmer and drier than average summer

Summer is leaning towards warmer and drier

NOTE: USFS is the subject matter expert for fire outlooks and information. MPCA uses this information in creating air quality forecasts. Normal fire activity in the Midwest, above normal in the Western US

Above normal and well above above normal fire activity is more likely in summer 2022