Mid-Atlantic Floods from Hurricane Irene - Aug. 24-29, 2011

What Have We Learned in the Past 10 Years?

Heavy rain, tropical storms, and flooding are a part of nature that we cannot eliminate. Concerns about climate change point to the potential going forward of heavier rains and even more intense storms. While we may not be able to eliminate the threat of flooding, we can learn from our past so that we can improve our prediction and response to the next flood.

So, what are we doing differently today than in 2011?

In 2011, the National Weather Service (NWS) was in the early stages of implementing new and more sophisticated river forecasting tools, including the Community Hydrologic Prediction System (CHPS). Since then, the NWS has continued to develop CHPS to enhance the ability to provide more accurate and timely forecasts.

Research and development of atmospheric and tropical weather models have continued and can now routinely produce higher resolution, sub-hourly predictions of storm tracks and rainfall. Combined with ever-increasing computing power, the forecasts of storm tracks and precipitation are now significantly more accurate than even 10 years ago.

The use of  Ensemble Forecasting  continues to grow, which helps forecasters, water managers, and the general public to better understand the uncertainty in weather and water forecasts and to better anticipate the potential for extreme events.

The National Weather Service has begun implementing a  National Water Model , which will dramatically increase river forecast coverage, making millions of forecasts available for almost any stream in the country, including smaller and ungauged streams.

There is an increasing emphasis on  Impact-Based Decision Support Services  where the National Weather Service is working more closely with our partners in water and emergency management to better understand their needs and requirements. These close partnerships have facilitated more effective hazard communication and are leading to more timely and successful public safety decision making.

None of these efforts will completely eliminate the threat of storms and flooding, but by working together to make a more resilient, Weather-Ready Nation, we are better prepared than ever before to protect life and property when floodwaters rise again.

For a look back at the floods of Tropical Storm Lee in the Mid-Atlantic in 2011, check out the StoryMap  here .

References:

• Cole, L.A. (2011) Hurricane Irene and Tropical Storm Lee Report. New York State Electric & Gas, Rochester Gas and Electric. https://documents.dps.ny.gov/search/Home/ViewDoc/Find?id=%7B294E4003-6A70-4312-9116-FD108475EF5D%7D&ext=pdf

• Lumia, Richard, Firda, G.D., and Smith, T.L. (2014) Floods of 2011 in New York. U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2014–5058, 236 p., http://dx.doi.org/10.3133/sir20145058.

• National Hurricane Center (NHC) (2011) Tropical Cyclone Report Hurricane Irene. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL092011_Irene.pdf

• National Weather Service (2012) Service Assessment Hurricane Irene, August 21-30, 2011. https://www.weather.gov/media/publications/assessments/Irene2012.pdf

• Stanne, S. (2012) Perfect Storms - How Hurricane Irene and Tropical Storm Lee Slammed NY. https://wri.cals.cornell.edu/sites/wri.cals.cornell.edu/files/shared/documents/0812perfectstorms.pdf

• Suro, T.P., Roland, M.A., and Kiah, R.G. (2015) Flooding in the Northeastern United States, 2011. U.S. Geological Survey Professional Paper 1821, 32 p., http://dx.doi.org/10.3133/pp1821.

• Watson, K.M., Collenburg, J.V., and Reiser, R.G. (2014) Hurricane Irene and associated floods of August 27–30, 2011, in New Jersey. U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2013–5234, 149 p., http://dx.doi.org/10.3133/sir20135234.