Housing Land Audit (HLA) 2022-2023

443 new homes were completed during 2022/23. There were 260 affordable units and 183 private units.

There were 6 new sites added this year, 6 sites completed and there were 29 active sites.

Our total Housing Land Supply is 6767

Over the next 5 years 2023/24 – 2027/28 we expect to deliver 2184 new homes across North Ayrshire (Our Effective Supply)

Our Long Term Supply (5 years plus 2028/29 and beyond) is 4583

The total number of Housing Sites as of 1st April 2023 is 109.

Of those 109 sites 75 are classed as Effective Sites (meaning they will begin to deliver new homes within the next 5 years).

The 75 Effective Sites are programmed to deliver 3840 new homes once complete.

The number of new homes built during 2022/23 has stabilised at 443 units per annum which is an average number we expect over the next 5 years. This stabilisation of completions signifies a strong and secure housing market within North Ayrshire.

Private completions stayed within the range we would expect at 183 new private units during 2022/23. The affordable sector delivered a total of 260 new homes across North Ayrshire during 2022/23. This is a drop from last year's delivery of 385 affordable completions. This was expected as the 385 upsurge was on the back of Covid site delays. This upsurge in affordable delivery was programmed within last years HLA as the sector caught up with Covid site delays. Over the next 5 years we expect affordable completions to average around 150 units per annum.

Looking forward to 2023/24 completion data, based on the five year programming,  this trend of high completion rates is set to level off at circa 400 new homes being delivered per annum. In 2023/24 it is expected there may be a slight drop in completions to 350 units but this will increase back to circa 400/450 units afterwards. The dip in 2023/24 is expected to come because a few larger sites have just started to commence development so we won't see completions trickling through from these sites until 2024/25.

For the second year in a row there have been no completions within the Garnock Valley. However, we expect to see completions coming through from 2023/24 as Bellway have commenced on site at NA 1116 – Beith Road , Longbar. This is the first development of market homes in Longbar

Tables of Completions over the last 5 years by Tenure

Table of completions in 2022/23 by locality & tenure

In last year’s Housing Land Audit we programmed, based on market intelligence and HLA data analysis, that 464 units would be completed during the 2022/2023 period. The actual completions recorded for 2022/23 were in line with that prediction at 443 units. This marks a stabilisation in North Ayrshire’s Housing Market after a declining period and then a blip in completions during 2021/22 due to Covid delays.

Table of completions in the last 5 years

Programming

The graph of 'New homes programmed in North Ayrshire over the next five years' shows programming peaking during 2025/26. We expect to see an average of 442 new homes per annum over the next five years.

There is a slight dip in new homes predicted during 2023/24. This is due to a lower number of affordable housing completions during this year due to timing on site starts.

New homes programmed in North Ayrshire over the next 5 years

As of 1 April 2023, 109 sites made up North Ayrshire’s Housing Land Supply with a remaining capacity of 6767 new homes. 49% of this land supply is found within the Irvine & Kilwinning sub-market area.

Housing Land Supply by locality

3840 of the 6767 new home capacity are from our 5 year effective housing sites. This gives confidence in our land supply because over half (57%) of our supply is from effective Housing sites which have a high certainty of being delivered/ commencing on site within the next 5 years. From this effective supply capacity of 3840 new homes we anticipate 2184 new homes will be delivered within the next 5 years with the rest delivered in the remaining years as the sites near completion. Some of our larger sites of 300 plus units can take up to 10 years to fully deliver from commencement on site if we use an average of 30 units complete per annum.

The chart shows the programming for each locality over the first 5 year period in blue (5 year land supply) and then beyond 5 years in orange (long term land supply). The chart highlights that the majority of the land available in Arran and the Garnock Valley will not be delivered within the next 5 years. There are signs that marketability within the Garnock Valley is improving with the commencement of Bellway at Longbar. Over the coming years we will monitor the uptake of land within the Garnock Valley.