Scenario design of New Zealand future agriculture

Know more about our work:

We have developed a simple DST that is the first to represent the whole agricultural system of New Zealand at the national scale.

The originality of the model is to bring together all the sectors of production, their market value, land and water use, energy and fertiliser consumptions, and emissions. The model aims to quantify agricultural outputs related to resilience, sustainability and profitability, i.e. carbon emissions and offset consequences, irrigation water use, water quality as influenced by land use, technology, and agricultural production value.

When first open, the model is set-up with current data (2019-2020). You can change the inputs and technological values and the model computes output indicators for 2050.

Ultimately, the model aims to be used for building scenarios and explore pathways to reach government objectives of ensuring high export value production and carbon neutrality by 2050.

Submodels, focusing on the arable sector et the livestock sectors have been developed. They are interacting with the main model. They can also be used as standalone modules. To try the submodels, follow the yellow or green buttons on the main model interface.

Listen to Pr Tom Cochrane, explaining in a video tutorial the DST interface, to learn using the model with the arable sector interface as an example.

Publication 1:  Development of a Systems Model for Assessing Pathways to Resilient, Sustainable, and Profitable Agriculture in New Zealand 

Publication 2:  An Analysis of Agricultural Systems Modelling Approaches and Examples to Support Future Policy Development under Disruptive Changes in New Zealand 

 Our Land and Water Think Piece webpage 

  Professor Tom Cochrane  

University of Canterbury, Civil & Natural Resources Engineering

tom.cochrane@canterbury.ac.nz

  Dr Clemence Vannier  

Manaaki Whenua - Landcare Research

Vannierc@landcareresearch.co.nz