The Future of New Zealand Agriculture

The Māori economy has significant interests in the agriculture sector. Te Ōhanga Māori, BERL, Reserve Bank of NZ Report (2018), valued Māori agriculture to be worth $23.4 billion. Agricultural profitability, resilience and sustainability is an important part of the Māori economy, and the NZ economy.

Māori agricultural interests are also guided by cultural values, where financial wellbeing is considered alongside the wellbeing of the people and the planet/environment. As such, long term economic sustainability is entwined with the health and wellbeing of Te Taiao. From a Māori worldview, Te Taiao manifests itself through whakapapa; be it people, landscape, plants, or animals. It encompasses everything that is ‘growing and flowing’. All are interconnected and intrinsically linked with biodiversity, whereby there is mauri (life force), mana (authority), tapu (sacred) and wairua (spirit).

Developing an assessment tool to explore different pathways and interventions for increasing the profitability, resilience, and sustainability of agriculture in Aotearoa over the next 5-30 years is seen to be of great importance to Māori. Both in terms of Māori economic interests and with respect to Te Taiao.

Tipene Merritt (Ngāti Kauwhata, Rangitāne, Ngāpuhi & Ngāi Te Rangi,  Kaiārahi Rangahau Māori for Science and Engineering ) has guided and advised the project on the needs of Māori in agriculture and also be aligned to those of the wider agricultural sector. As the assessment tool prototype was developed, Merritt led Māori engagement. 

Further to the working relationship with Kā Waimaero/Ngāi Tahu Centre, Tipene has engaged with Māori communities in the Bay of Islands and Tauranga regions. He also facilitated a workshop with representatives from the Ministry for the Environment.

Listen to Tipene talking about Māori engagement.

As a result of degraded water bodies, wetlands, streams, freshwater, the New Zealand Government has set up the National Policy Statement for Freshwater management (2020).

This policy provides local authorities with direction on how they should manage freshwater under the Resource Management Act 1991. 

Among the seven standards designed, four are directly related to agricultural activities:

• set minimum requirements for feedlots and other stockholding areas;
• improve poor practice intensive winter grazing of forage crops;
• restrict further agricultural intensification until the end of 2024;
• limit the discharge of synthetic nitrogen fertiliser to land, and require reporting of fertiliser use.

We have developed a simple DST that is the first to represent the whole agricultural system of New Zealand at the national scale.

The originality of the model is to bring together all the sectors of production, their market value, land and water use, energy and fertiliser consumptions, and emissions. The model aims to quantify agricultural outputs relative to resilience, sustainability and profitability, i.e. carbon emissions and offset consequences, irrigation water use, water quality as influenced by land use, technology, and agricultural production value.

When first open, the model is set-up with 2019-2020 data. You can change the inputs and technological values and the model computes output indicators for 2050.

The model aims to be used for building scenarios and explore pathways to reach government objectives of ensuring high export value production and carbon neutrality by 2050.

Agriculture is present in 53% of the total NZ land area.

The dairy sector represents 12% of the agricultural land, forestry 11%, meat and wool sectors (sheep, beef, deer production) represents 75% of the agricultural land. Horticulture and arable sectors cover 1% each of the agricultural land.

Most of the Dairy sector is located in Waikato, Taranaki, Canterbury, and the Northland regions. Irrigated lands of the Canterbury plains are also home to a large part of the arable sector. Horticulture is mainly located in the Marlborough and Tasman-Nelson regions for the South Island, and in the Bay of Plenty in the North Island. Finally, meat and wool sectors are located throughout the country, mainly on hill lands.

• Overall export value 52,2 NZ$ million (2022 - Ministry of Primary Industry);
• Irrigation water use 2.8 km ³ /year (2018-2022, Aquastats FAO);
• Food calories 2.7M;
• Water quality score 1;
• Emissions from energy 1,790 Gg CO ₂ eq;
• Emissions from nitrogen 14,700 Gg CO ₂ eq;
• Emissions from methane 24,500 Gg CO ₂ eq.

This scenario is an illustration of the use of the DST and a map translation. Three other scenarios have been developed in the scientific publication of this work (here). Any other disruptive scenarios can be tested using the DST.

The agricultural sector is building its future based on best practices and technology quickly and widely available.

In this scenario, the best options, practices and technology currently available or in development are widely implemented.  All the animal production yields are maximised and the number of animals reduced. Pastures are only grazed twice to three times a year, complemented with grain feed and an increase in arable production, and this requires less nitrogen to grow grass all year round. Freeing up some land allow crops and horticulture diversification for high value production.

With more high value production, a better spatial optimisation, with more on-farm diversification and the use of technology like solar panel systems and electric tractors, precision low-rate fertilisers, innovative effluent treatment systems, and livestock intelligence, all the goals are reached in 2050.

Emissions from energy or nitrogen fertiliser used has fallen with the help of better practices and technology, simulated through increases in efficiency. Offsetting helps reduce the remaining emissions. The amount of water used for irrigation has fallen below current levels with a higher overall production by efficient use of water and optimisation of yields. Water quality improvement is high and total export value is high.

In the "Optimisation and Technology 2050" scenario, all government goals are reached thanks to a wide adoption of optimal practices in mainstream farming and the use of the best technology possible. The sector is profitable. An increase in native plant regrowth may also result in increases in biodiversity (i.e. native birds) and protection of riparian areas leading to water quality improvements. The main assumption is that technology will be readily available and widely implemented to achieve these goals.

The maps display the agricultural export value at the territorial authorities/districts scale in 2019 and projected to 2050.

In 2019, these dairy and horticultural regions produced the highest value: Northland, Bay of Plenty, eastern part of Waikato, Central Hawkes bay, Tasman and Marlborough.

In this scenario all the districts have increased their export value. This is mainly due to the increase of all the production prices and also diversification into niche production in horticulture and arable sectors.

The maps display the irrigation water used in cubic meters per year at the territorial authorities/districts scale in 2019 and projected to 2050.

In 2019, districts dominated by dairy production (Canterbury, northern part of the West Coast) used more water for irrigation than others. Horticultural areas (Bay of Plenty, Tasman, Marlborough) were also very water-use intensive.

The 2019 map and projected scenario are not very different due to a balance of additional irrigated land along the existing ones, and a better efficiency of new irrigation systems to save water use. Canterbury plains, Otago and Marlborough regions still have the highest use of water for irrigation, but it is link with the capacity of the land to produce high value products from horticulture, arable and dairy.

However, the scenario does not take into account the increase of water need to grow crops under climate change.