National Weather Service Ohio River Forecast Center
OHRFC Area Flood Potential
Flood potential is near normal the next two weeks (with some flooding possible)
Flood potential is slightly above normal through the spring for most of the Ohio Valley
Past Precipitation the Last 14 Days
The last 14 days have been relatively dry across the Ohio Valley. Eastern Kentucky and southern Ohio were the driest. Precipitation totals were 0.25”-0.50” or 10 to 25 percent of normal. The far Upper Wabash basin and Upper Monongahela received the highest precipitation totals with 1.5” to 2.00 inches or 110 to 125 percent of normal. The remainder of the basin received 0.5”-1.00” or 25 to 50 percent of normal.
Soil moisture continues to be well above normal in Kentucky and southern West Virginia (above the 70th percentile). It is below normal across northern Indiana, northern Ohio, and into northern West Virginia (at and below the 30th percentile). Normal is considered in the 30-70th percentile range.
State Rankings:
Southeast Illinois - Near normal
Indiana - Below normal north to normal south
Ohio - Below normal north to normal south
Western Pennsylvania - Near normal
West Virginia - Below normal north to above normal south
Kentucky - Much above normal
Tennessee - Near normal
The past seven-day average streamflow (compared to historical streamflow) is normal across southeast Illinois, northern Ohio, western Kentucky and southern Indiana. Streamflow is below to much below normal across southern Ohio, northern Indiana, eastern Kentucky and West Virginia.
Data from USGS.
State Rankings:
Southeast Illinois - Near normal
Indiana - Below normal north and normal south
Ohio - Below normal south to near normal north
Western Pennsylvania - Near normal
West Virginia - Below normal
Kentucky - Near normal west to below normal east
Tennessee - Below normal
Reservoir levels are near the normal winter pools across the Ohio Valley. The exception is in Kentucky where pool levels are above normal due to recent heavy rainfall. The basins most impacted by above normal storage include the Green, Kentucky and Licking basins.
Ohio River Flows
Current streamflow conditions on the Ohio River are currently below normal. Observed values are in percent of normal with above 100% are above normal and below 100% are below normal.
Pittsburgh - 80%
Huntington - 70%
Cincinnati - 70%
Louisville - 60%
Evansville - 60%
Smithland - 60%
Ohio River historical mean daily flow values in the form of a chart.
A chart that shows the mean daily flows at Smithland.
Historical Ohio River mean flow values (left) and the historical mean flow values at Smithland (right). Images from USACE.
Snow Water Content in Snow Pack
Due to the recent above normal temperatures, very little snow remains in the Ohio Valley.
For more information, and to find the interactive map, please visit: https://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/nsa
Lake Erie percentage of ice cover in 2025 (black line) compared to historical average (red line). Data from GLERL.
2-Week Future Precipitation and Flood Outlook Summary
A weather system will affect the Ohio Valley for the upcoming weekend. The heaviest rainfall is expected south of the Ohio River. In week 2, the pattern becomes more active and above normal precipitation is forecast, mainly north of the Ohio River. The rainfall will bring the possibility of minor flooding, which is normal for March in the Ohio Valley.
Long range forecast precipitation (left) and temperature (center). Data from CPC. The forecast precipitation for the next seven days (right). Data from WPC.
Ohio River Average Flow Forecasts the Next 2 Weeks
The Ohio River will see flows returning to above normal for the next 2 weeks due to the upcoming rainfall.
Values are in percent of normal with greater than 100% being above normal and
values below 100% being below normal.
Pittsburgh - 140%
Huntington - 120%
Cincinnati - 110%
Louisville - 110%
Evansville - 110%
Smithland - 110%
A map showing the ensemble forecast potential flood levels in the Ohio Valley.
Ensemble potential river levels for the next 10 days from the NAEFS model. Data from NWS.
90-Day Flood Outlook
The outlook continues to favor normal to above normal flood risk through spring which means minor flooding is expected, and moderate to isolated major floods are possible. The start of March has been fairly dry across the Ohio Valley. The second half of the month will be more active with a return to a wetter pattern. Above normal precipitation is expected in the month of April. Conditions are currently expected to trend towards normal to drier than normal at the end of the 90 day period during May.
Southeast Illinois - Minor to moderate flooding possible
Indiana - Minor to moderate flooding possible
Ohio - Minor flooding possible
Western Pennsylvania - Minor flooding possible
Southwestern New York - Minor flooding possible
West Virginia - Minor to moderate flooding possible
Western Virginia - Minor flooding possible
Kentucky - Minor to moderate flooding possible
Tennessee - Minor flooding possible
For more information on the 90-day flood risk please visit NWPS: Long Range Flood Outlook
Additional Information
Flood risk is defined as follows:
Below normal - flooding will be limited
Normal - minor flooding in the typical locations
Above normal - widespread flooding with some moderate or major possible
Winter/spring flood outlooks are issued weekly by the National Weather Service Ohio River Forecast Center during winter and early spring to summarize basin hydrological and meteorological conditions. It also assesses the potential for flood risk. The outlooks are based on current and forecast conditions.
The Ohio River Forecast Center also issues a 30 day water resources outlook monthly throughout the year for a continuous water watch. This can be found at https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/b393aa4ebba045e799840dfbcfda0286.
Factor considered in assessing flood potential include antecedent conditions, past precipitation, current streamflow and reservoir levels, soil moisture, water content in snow cover, ice conditions and future precipitation.
