NORTH CENTRAL REGION

• Population - Is the region growing and by how much?
• Diversity - Is the area becoming more diverse and where?
• Age - How is the region aging and where are certain age cohorts more prevalent?
• Income - How are regional incomes changing over time?
• Employment - What are the major sectors and how does this influence local incomes and housing?
• Housing Occupancy - What are trends in ownership and renters?
• Housing Vacancy - Is the region seeing more housing vacancy and where?
• Housing Age - How old is the housing stock and what does this mean for policy?
• Housing Condition - Correlated to the age of housing, a snapshot of where the condition is above or below average.
• Owner and Renter Cost Burden - Are residents in the region experiencing more or less burden to pay for housing, not including other necessary expenses like transportation?

• There are concerns throughout the country regarding undercounts in the 2020 population. Minorities and those in poverty are mostly likely to be under counted. 

• In Saline, Ellsworth, and Barton county between 10% and 20% of the population is at risk for being under counted. Depending on the level of the undercount these counties may not have lost population.  

• While, the Census reports population loss in areas like Salina, employment growth has been strong creating a significant demand for housing.  

• Barton County saw the largest loss, 2,181 people but the unemployment rate remains historically low with many vacant positions. 

• The University and other amenities supported continued population growth in Ellis County. 

• All of these counties have a number of job openings and a very low unemployment rate.

A population profile of the North Central Region

• Minority population includes all those that do not identify themselves white, non-Hispanic.
• Like Kansas, the Northeast region is becoming more diverse, and many counties are becoming more diverse than the state as a whole. Only Geary County became less diverse, although the County is overall much more diverse than others in the region with nearly 50% of residents identifying as not white/non-Hispanic. 

Change in Minority Population 2010-2020

• Jewell County has the largest percent of its population over 55 years old in the state. 

• Although, Jewell County lost population many of the 55+ households will continue to retire. If they remain in the county their job often needs to be filled and housing unit provided for the new employees. 

• More urban areas have lower shares of people over 55 years old, likely related to housing options, schools, and employment opportunities.

Population Over 55 Years Old - 2019

Population by Age – North Central region vs Kansas - 2019

• Median household incomes are fairly consistent among counties in North Central Kansas but ten counties are approximately $10,000 below the statewide median.
• The areas with lower increases in household income tend to also be those with lower housing production and lower housing condition ratings, but not every case. For example, Osborne County saw the highest increase in incomes in the region but has one of the oldest housing stocks and the highest percent of homes in poor condition. This may indicate that even though households have the resources to make improvements they see little financial benefit in making those improvements.
• While Jewell County has the highest owner-occupancy rate in the region, incomes did not increase since 2010 when adjusting for inflation. This can be from an older, retiree population with fixed incomes who own their home, as the County did see the largest increase in population aged 55 and older since 2010.
• The illustration to the right shows what typical wages might be for common jobs in the region. Even with real income growth in many counties, there are still essential workers that make much less and require appropriate housing options locally or must spend more on transportation costs to live outside of where they work. 

Median Household Income - 2019

Median Salary of Local Metro Occupations

People with adequate incomes may first decide where they want to live rather than first seek employment. However, many other people do not have as much flexibility and must find housing after finding employment. 

• Like many other regions, the percentage of the population in the civilian labor force declined from 2010. 

• Saline County is a major employment center in the North Central region that attracts workers living in other areas. Thousands of new jobs are coming to Saline County, creating a near emergency housing situation. 

• Ellis County draws a large share of workers as well given the employment opportunities in Hays. 

• The regional employment base includes a strong focus in health care, manufacturing, and education. The wage ranges in the fields can vary greatly, but all include entry level essential worker positions like nurses, school teachers, and line workers.

Percent Change in Civilian Labor Force - 2010-2019

Where the Northeast Region’s Employed Civilian Population Works - 2019

• The counties with the most population have a higher share of renter households. These two counties, Saline and Ellis, also have the most diverse workforce and for Ellis a large student population that demands rental housing. 

• The highest rates of owner-occupied housing in Jewell County correlates with the aging population and housing production, an indication that more assistance may be needed to maintain these homes in the future. 

• Most counties have typical shares of owner-occupied housing compared to Kansas and other areas in the Midwest. 

• Compared to 2010, only two counties saw an increase in the share of owner-occupied housing. In other words, the share of renter-occupied housing increased in the majority of counties.

• The increase in the proportion of renters illustrates a combination of changing preferences, difficulty affording homeownership, and limited supply of ownership options, among other localized factors.

• Those counties with higher owner-occupancy and higher percentage of 55+ population are likely seeing a demand for alternative housing options that better fit stage of life. 

Percent Owner-Occupied Households - 2019

• A 5% to 6% vacancy rate is a good rate for a community. At this rate housing options exist for those looking to move to an area or change housing type. However, the vacancy rate does not always tell the full story when the vacant units are in poor condition they may not be meeting community needs. The vacancy rates for the North Central region are illustrated to the right and include all units in each county. Individual rates vary within the cities in each county. 
• High vacancies reported in the 2020 Census are similar to other parts of the state. 
• Counties with high vacancy rates like Lincoln and Osborne may be reflective of the housing condition and age. The median year built in these two counties was 1939 and 1947. Some of the oldest housing stock in the state. 
• The increase in the vacancy rate in Saline County may actually be positive given the vacancy rate reported by the Census in 2010 was 5.5%. This provides more options on the market. However, locals, particularly in Salina indicate the vacancy rate feels much lower. In particular, participants noted the difference between vacant and actual available quality units. This will be an issue in Salina where rental housing for new employees is desperately needed.
• It will be important for counties to understand the local causes of vacancy rates above 10% and then formulate appropriate strategies.

Change in Vacancy – North Central region vs Kansas

The age and condition of housing is often reflected in the costs for housing. This page shows the relation of housing age to home value for owner-occupied units. 

In the North Central region, similar to others in the state, homes in more rural counties are older, reflective of lower building activity in recent decades. 

Areas with an older housing stock also tend to have lower home values and a higher percentage of the stock as single-family detached units. Ellsworth County appears to be an exception.

This matches the challenges heard in the public input regarding new homes in rural areas not appraising at the cost to build.

Housing Stock % Single Family Detached Households - 2019

Median Year Built of Housing and Median House Value by County

• Ratings above average generally represent recently built units. 
• Homes rated average or below make up over 90% of the housing stock in several counties. This is one indication of low new construction activity. 
• No county has more than 30% of its housing stock in above average condition. 
• Units in poor condition or below are scattered throughout the region, concentrated more in some counties. Many counties have more than 10% of the housing stock in poor condition or below. These are areas where visible dilapidation may be more present. Incomes grew in some of these same counties, but making repairs can still be a challenge for aging homeowners.
• While the median age of homes are higher in micropolitan counties like Ellis and Saline, the condition of homes falls in the middle related to other counties. This may indicate large differences in condition throughout the county as new builds drive up the median age and condition ratings but existing housing is deteriorating. 

• One metric to evaluate whether a home is affordable to a home buyer is to compare their household income to the value of the home. This metric can be adapted to evaluate the affordability of housing markets in different counties.
• An affordable, self-sustaining housing market with adequate value and revenues to support market-rate new construction, typically exhibits a value to income ratio between 2.0 to 3.0. Ratios above 3.0 present significant affordability issues while ratios below 2.0 are significantly undervalued relative to income. 
• Under the value to income metric, most counties in the North Central region are considered undervalued. These are again, those more rural and with an older existing housing stock. 
• The same counties have some of the highest percentage of homes in poor condition. The low values are likely suppressing the financial reward of investing in housing, resulting in further deterioration and vacancy. 
• Ellis County has a ratio above 3.0, This is mostly caused by the student population at Fort Hays State University driving down the county median income and a newer housing stock with higher values. 
• Another important metric in housing affordability is what the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development defines as “families who pay more than 30 percent of their income for housing are considered cost burdened and may have difficulty affording necessities such as food, clothing, transportation, and medical care.” The map above shows the percent of owners who spend more than 30 percent of their income on housing.
• Several counties saw the percent of cost burdened owners increase from 2010 to 2019, also the counties with typically less income growth since 2010.
• Those burdened by their home are less financially resilient to other changes that may occur including job loss, rising fuel costs, and medical expenses.

Value to Income Ratio - 2019

• A metric to measure affordability of rentals is to compare gross rent and rental household incomes, in addition to the HUD defined cost burden status of paying more than 30 percent of income on housing.
• More counties that saw an increase in cost burdened renters from 2010-2019 than owners. 
• Gross rent tends to be lower in more rural counties, and this often correlates with a lower percentage of cost burdened renters. 
• Those counties with the lowest rents also have some of the oldest housing in the poorest condition.  
• While estimated gross rents are below the rent at 30 percent of median rental incomes, the age and quality of these units is a significant issue. 
• Low rental values can also inhibit the markets ability to renovate or build new units, similar to undervalued owner-occupied markets. 

Renter Conditions - 2019

Of the 239 respondents living in North Central Kansas:

• Respondents were fairly evenly split across age cohorts older than 25 years old.

• About 88% of survey respondents are white alone. 

• Hispanic or Latino respondents represent 4% of respondents. 

• Most are homeowners (76%). Of those that rent, 63% do so by necessity. 

• When asked if for reasons they’d consider moving, of those indicating they would consider moving, the most (19%) said to a different community for quality of life reasons, followed closely by moving to a larger owner home (17%).

• The largest share of respondents’ household income was between $100,000 and $149,999. This is much higher than the median income for counties in the region and must be considered in evaluating results. However, there were also a good portion of respondents reporting incomes of $25,000-$49,999.

Respondents from North Central Kansas feel that seniors would be most interested in an owner-occupied or apartment arrangement with some services available and/or low maintenance. Note that 22% of respondents were over 65 years old.

What type of housing do you believe area seniors and the elderly are most interested in?

Which types of housing solutions would you support to reduce the cost of housing in your county (select all that apply)?

Respondents and stakeholder discussions showed good support for policy directed at existing homes and assistance directly to residents. When questioned further, respondents most favored programs targeted at:

• Housing rehabilitation loans

• Downpayment assistance to owners

• Grants or low-interest loans to housing developments

Most respondents would be supportive of funding for housing rehab program. Slightly less would be supportive of funding to remove dilapidated housing, but still a majority are supportive. 

Does your city or county need increased or continued use of city/public funding for housing rehabilitation or renovations?

Using data from the Kansas Department of Labor, the Census, and commuting patterns help demonstrate housing demand for the region through the next several years. Factors included in the forecast:

• Regional employment projections. A portion of new jobs in the coming year can and will be filled by people who live in each region.

• Job openings from retirements. A portion of residents in the region will retire in the coming years. Jobs that new retirees previously occupied will open for new employees, but a housing unit will not. 

• Natural population changes. The population is aging in most regions and will decline over time without an in-migration of residents or significant change in birth rates. Projections for the Northeast region show natural growth.

• Replacement need. A portion of homes will require demolition in the coming years. Other houses will be lost from accidents such as fires or neglect across each region. 

• Other assumptions. The full methodology with population forecasts and housing price points are included in the appendix of this housing assessment.

The following opportunities and challenges are based on the market analysis, surveys, and regional listening sessions. 

The North Central region has some of the oldest housing in the state which is impacting values. 

The low values of the regions housing stock, both owner and renter, creates a disincentive to build new or rehab existing housing. 

Housing demand is being driven by: 

• A large number of unfilled jobs, the result of business growth and more individuals moving into their retirement years. 
• The need to replace aging housing units that are unoccupied due to quality. 
• The need for newer rental housing that meets market expectation.
• An aging population that is seeking lower maintenance options.

The region has a growing number of households over the age of 55+. When these households remain in their communities or regions after retirement they create an opportunity for both a new employee and a housing unit to accommodate that employee. Providing alternative housing for this demographic may free up housing for new employees.